The Pollsters Never Rest.
One of these polls is not like the others, one of these polls just isn't the same. The eleven polls I have recorded since the last report: Gravis: 44-46, YouGov: 47-46, Rasmussen tracking: 47-49, Gallup tracking: 45-52, Ipsos: 46-43, Tipp/IBD: 48-42, Uconn: 48-45, PPP: 48-48, NBC: 47-47, UPI/CV: 46-48, Rand: 48-46. Can you guess which one is not like the others?
Obama: 46.7%
Romney: 46.5%
Not only is the Romney result for the Gallup poll not like the others, today it moved further away from the mean, going from 51 to 52. What if we threw out the best and worst polls (in the sense of the minimum and maximum Romney numbers) ? Then we'd get O: 46.8%, R: 46.4%.
Varying interval (now three and four day, previously five or weekly) data:
Obama : 46.7 47.2 46.6 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.7 48.7 46.7 46.4 46.7 46.3 47.7 46.8 45.8 46.9
46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0 46.7 46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 46.5 47.1 46.7 45.8 44.8 44.3 44.8 45.4 46.3 45.6 45.4 45.0 44.3 46.0 45.6 44.9
44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1 43.6 45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +2.6 +3.9 +4.5 +3.9 +3.3 +0.4 +0.8 +1.3 +1.3 +3.9 +0.8 +0.2 +2.0
+1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9 +3.1 +0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
Intrade latest & interval history:
Obama: 61% 66% 61% 64% 75% 72% 67% 58% 58% 57% 57% 59% 58% 57% 60% 55% 56% 56% 54% 53%
Romney: 39% 35% 39% 36% 26% 28% 33% 42% 42% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 38% 41% 41% 42% 42% 42%
FiveThirtyEight latest & interval history:
Obama: 68% 65% 61% 80% 86% 84% 78% 76% 79% 78% 72% 69% 70% 72% 72% 67% 67% 67% 68% 63%
Romney: 32% 35% 39% 20% 14% 16% 22% 24% 21% 22% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 33% 33% 33% 32% 37%
Back to normal, with the FiveThirtyEight number diverging upwards for Obama from the Intrade probability.
Best news for Obama: The early voting reports and statistics, if they can be believed, generally look good. It looks like more people are voting than are indicated by the likely voter models. Registered voter numbers are pretty universally better for Obama than Likely Voter numbers (LV numbers are used in all the data I'm reporting). We shall see.
Best news for Romney: It looks like North Carolina is now solidly in Romney territory, and Florida is getting there. Two absolutely must-win states for him.
Swing state polling at intervals, averaged for the last two weeks, taken from RCP data:
Ohio: +1.9 +1.7 +3.1 +4.4 +6.0 +5.4 +4.1 +2.7 +1.0 +1.7 +2.7 +1.8 +4.8 +4.8 +4.3 +4.3
Virginia: +0.3 +0.0 +0.4 +1.7 +4.4 +4.1 +3.3 +1.2 +1.6 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.8 +1.2
Florida: -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 +1.4 +3.4 +3.2 +1.7 +0.9 +0.0 +1.0 +1.4 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.6 +1.1
Iowa: +2.4 +1.6 +2.0 +4.2 +3.7 +3.6 +2.5 +2.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.0 -2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
Wisconsin: +2.8 +2.0 +4.5 +8.3 +6.7 +7.8 +7.0 +0.8 +2.6 +2.6 +2.6 +3.5 +5.3 +6.0 +6.0 -
Michigan: +5.0 +4.4 +4.4
Penns: +5.6 +4.7 +4.5
N Hampshire: -0.8 -0.8 +4.3 +9.0 +6.0 -1.0 +1.0 +5.0 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +4.0 +4.0 +2.0
N Carolina: -5.0 -4.7 -3.0 -0.8 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2.9 -1.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3 -0.4
Colorado: -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 +1.2 +3.1 +2.9 +2.1 +3.3 +2.3 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.0 +2.5
Nevada: +2.2 +2.0 +1.6 +5.3 +4.9 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +3.5 +5.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
I removed Missouri, it's now above 10% for Romney. Very marginal increases for Obama in each of the absolutely critical swing states: OH, VA, IA, WI, CO. It sure looks like it could be a long night on election day before a winner is known. Fortunately for those who go to sleep early on the West Coast, Ohio is in the Eastern time zone.
Obama: 46.7%
Romney: 46.5%
Not only is the Romney result for the Gallup poll not like the others, today it moved further away from the mean, going from 51 to 52. What if we threw out the best and worst polls (in the sense of the minimum and maximum Romney numbers) ? Then we'd get O: 46.8%, R: 46.4%.
Varying interval (now three and four day, previously five or weekly) data:
Obama : 46.7 47.2 46.6 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.7 48.7 46.7 46.4 46.7 46.3 47.7 46.8 45.8 46.9
46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0 46.7 46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 46.5 47.1 46.7 45.8 44.8 44.3 44.8 45.4 46.3 45.6 45.4 45.0 44.3 46.0 45.6 44.9
44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1 43.6 45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +2.6 +3.9 +4.5 +3.9 +3.3 +0.4 +0.8 +1.3 +1.3 +3.9 +0.8 +0.2 +2.0
+1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9 +3.1 +0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
Intrade latest & interval history:
Obama: 61% 66% 61% 64% 75% 72% 67% 58% 58% 57% 57% 59% 58% 57% 60% 55% 56% 56% 54% 53%
Romney: 39% 35% 39% 36% 26% 28% 33% 42% 42% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 38% 41% 41% 42% 42% 42%
FiveThirtyEight latest & interval history:
Obama: 68% 65% 61% 80% 86% 84% 78% 76% 79% 78% 72% 69% 70% 72% 72% 67% 67% 67% 68% 63%
Romney: 32% 35% 39% 20% 14% 16% 22% 24% 21% 22% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 33% 33% 33% 32% 37%
Back to normal, with the FiveThirtyEight number diverging upwards for Obama from the Intrade probability.
Best news for Obama: The early voting reports and statistics, if they can be believed, generally look good. It looks like more people are voting than are indicated by the likely voter models. Registered voter numbers are pretty universally better for Obama than Likely Voter numbers (LV numbers are used in all the data I'm reporting). We shall see.
Best news for Romney: It looks like North Carolina is now solidly in Romney territory, and Florida is getting there. Two absolutely must-win states for him.
Swing state polling at intervals, averaged for the last two weeks, taken from RCP data:
Ohio: +1.9 +1.7 +3.1 +4.4 +6.0 +5.4 +4.1 +2.7 +1.0 +1.7 +2.7 +1.8 +4.8 +4.8 +4.3 +4.3
Virginia: +0.3 +0.0 +0.4 +1.7 +4.4 +4.1 +3.3 +1.2 +1.6 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.8 +1.2
Florida: -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 +1.4 +3.4 +3.2 +1.7 +0.9 +0.0 +1.0 +1.4 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.6 +1.1
Iowa: +2.4 +1.6 +2.0 +4.2 +3.7 +3.6 +2.5 +2.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.0 -2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
Wisconsin: +2.8 +2.0 +4.5 +8.3 +6.7 +7.8 +7.0 +0.8 +2.6 +2.6 +2.6 +3.5 +5.3 +6.0 +6.0 -
Michigan: +5.0 +4.4 +4.4
Penns: +5.6 +4.7 +4.5
N Hampshire: -0.8 -0.8 +4.3 +9.0 +6.0 -1.0 +1.0 +5.0 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +4.0 +4.0 +2.0
N Carolina: -5.0 -4.7 -3.0 -0.8 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2.9 -1.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3 -0.4
Colorado: -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 +1.2 +3.1 +2.9 +2.1 +3.3 +2.3 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.0 +2.5
Nevada: +2.2 +2.0 +1.6 +5.3 +4.9 +3.8 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +3.5 +5.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
I removed Missouri, it's now above 10% for Romney. Very marginal increases for Obama in each of the absolutely critical swing states: OH, VA, IA, WI, CO. It sure looks like it could be a long night on election day before a winner is known. Fortunately for those who go to sleep early on the West Coast, Ohio is in the Eastern time zone.