Is the Presidential election already over? Redux.
Whether or not 18% of Ohio's voters have voted, we now have Iowans telling us (via a poll released today) that 34% of them have voted, and those that did voted 67-32 for Obama. It's not a scientific sample; far more Democrats are clearly voting early than are Republicans, plus the poll's overall results show Obama up more than he "should" be in Iowa, 51-43.
Still, at this point all plausible paths to a Romney victory include Iowa, except him winning all of OH, VA, NC, and FL. (I am officially pronouncing NV for Obama, barring some serious change in the world in the next two weeks. Not a single poll since April has shown Romney leading in Nevada.) If we do get to the point where Iowa can logically be called for Obama based on those who have already voted (a big if), the election will, to a high probability, be over (in other words, the conditional probability of Obama winning, given that I tell you that it is indisputable, or nearly so, that Obama has won Iowa, is very high) From the poll, it seems like nearly 50% of Iowa's voters will have voted early.
As a side note, early voting started today in North Carolina. We may have another redux in not too long.
Still, at this point all plausible paths to a Romney victory include Iowa, except him winning all of OH, VA, NC, and FL. (I am officially pronouncing NV for Obama, barring some serious change in the world in the next two weeks. Not a single poll since April has shown Romney leading in Nevada.) If we do get to the point where Iowa can logically be called for Obama based on those who have already voted (a big if), the election will, to a high probability, be over (in other words, the conditional probability of Obama winning, given that I tell you that it is indisputable, or nearly so, that Obama has won Iowa, is very high) From the poll, it seems like nearly 50% of Iowa's voters will have voted early.
As a side note, early voting started today in North Carolina. We may have another redux in not too long.