Control of the US Senate.

[jpmassar]

While we're waiting for the week's Presidential polling to play out, I thought I would take another crack at Senate probabilities and then compare them to FiveThirtyEight's numbers.
First I'll pick my own probabilities for each seriously contested Senate race, then look at Silver's numbers.

And away we go. In the order Real Clear Politics lists the races.

MA R->D 80% +0.8
VA D->R 30% -0.3
FL D->R 10% -0.1
MT D->R 60% -0.6
NV R->D 30% +0.3
ND D->R 70% -0.7
WI D->R 30% -0.3
OH D->R 10% -0.1
MO D->R 30% -0.4
IN R->D 40% +0.4
NE D->R 100% -1.0
AZ R->D 20% +0.2
ME R->I 90% +0.9
CT D->R 20% -0.2

Total: -1.0 (so ending up with 52 D+I, 48 R)

And now to FiveThirtyEight, rounding to the nearest 10%.

MA R->D 70% +0.7
VA D->R 20% -0.2
FL D->R 0% -0.0
MT D->R 70% -0.7
NV R->D 40% +0.4
ND D->R 90% -0.9
WI D->R 20% -0.2
OH D->R 10% -0.1
MO D->R 20% -0.2
IN R->D 50% +0.5
NE D->R 90% -0.9
AZ R->D 30% +0.3
ME R->I 90% +0.9
CT D->R 30% -0.3

FiveThirtyEight has PA and NM at 90%, not 100% to remain D.

Total: -1.1 (using all the FiveThirtyEight non-rounded data).

Biggest discrepancy is North Dakota, where I think the Democrat is doing better than the sparse polling indicates.

Heh. Update. Just off the twitter feeds:

#NDSen Heidi Heitkamp tied at 47 with Rick Berg in brand-new Mason-Dixon poll http://dkel.ec/VHa0xq