The Pollsters Never Rest.
There are at least sixteen national presidential polls that have been published in the last week. I haven't listed them in the past but just to give you an idea, and for yucks:
PPP 50-46
NBC/WSJ 50-45
Monmouth 48-45
UPI/Cvoter 49-45
AP 47-46
Pew 51-43
YouGov 49-44
UConn 46-43
Princeton 52-45
Heartland 50-43
ARG 49-47
Angus-Reid 48-46
Gallup 47-47
Rasmussen 46-45
Ipsos/Reuters 48-43
Rand 49-44
Obama: 48.7%
Romney: 44.8%
This week's and previous week's data:
Obama : 48.7 48.7 46.7 46.4 46.7 46.3 47.7 46.8 45.8 46.9 46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0
46.7 46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 44.8 45.4 46.3 45.6 45.4 45.0 44.3 46.0 45.6 44.9 44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1
43.6 45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +3.9 +3.3 +0.4 +0.8 +1.3 +1.3 +3.9 +0.8 +0.2 +2.0 +1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9
+3.1 +0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
At 16 polls a week, how likely are you to be called? As a very rough calculation, assume it takes 10,000 calls to get about 1000 responses. At sixteen polls per week for ten weeks that would be 1.6 million calls, but of course some of these would be to the same person. Ignoring that complication, there are about 160,000,000 people who vote, so that's still only about 1% of the voting public that is called, let alone sampled. People in swing states, where multiple statewide polls are being conducted, have a much better chance of being called, of course.
What to say about the polling? As Schmengie is basically saying, either Rasmussen and Gallup, the two well-known tracking polls, are right (the race is a dead heat), or everyone else is (Obama up about 3%-4%) (two other tracking polls, Ipsos and RAND, are consistent with the non-tracking polls).
It just occurred to me that it would be quite amusing if Romney ended up with 47% of the vote. A distinct possibility at this point.
Intrade latest & weekly history:
Obama: 72% 67% 58% 58% 57% 57% 59% 58% 57% 60% 55% 56% 56% 54% 53%
Romney: 28% 33% 42% 42% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 38% 41% 41% 42% 42% 42%
FiveThirtyEight latest & weekly history:
Obama: 76% 79% 78% 72% 69% 70% 72% 72% 67% 67% 67% 68% 63%
Romney: 24% 21% 22% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 33% 33% 33% 32% 37%
Best news for Obama: Apparently, he has a lock on 47% of the vote. That's a pretty big advantage.
Best news for Romney: He presumably has the option to refile his taxes, taking the full deductions allowed by law, once the election is over. So instead of paying at an effective 14.1% by not taking his allowed deductions, as his tax return for 2011 released today shows (to make him look 'good'), he can, after the election is over, refile with all his deductions and get a 9% rate, getting a check back for something on the order of a bazillion dollars. Which he can spend on another car elevator.
As I noted, I'm going to a two-week window for the state polling. And I'm taking PA off the list. Rasmussen itself just had a poll showing PA at +11 Obama...
Swing state polling, averaged for the last month two weeks, taken from RCP data:
Ohio: Obama +4.1 +2.7 +1.0 +1.7 +2.7 +1.8 +4.8 +4.8 +4.3 +4.3
Virginia: Obama +3.3 +1.2 +1.6 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.8 +1.2
Florida: Obama +1.7 +0.9 +0.0 +1.0 +1.4 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.6 +1.1
Iowa: Obama +2.5 +2.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.0 -2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
Wisconsin: Obama +7.0 +0.8 +2.6 +2.6 +2.6 +3.5 +5.3 +6.0 +6.0 -
Michigan: Obama +8.0 +3.7 +2.8 +2.0 +3.3 +7.7 +6.3 +6.3 +7.0 +4.0
New Hampshire: Obama +1.0 +5.0 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +4.0 +4.0 +2.0
North Carolina: Romney -0.2 +2.9 +1.6 +0.8 +1.0 +1.0 +1.0 +1.5 +0.3 +0.4
Colorado: Obama +2.1 +3.3 +2.3 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.0 +2.5
Nevada: Obama +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +3.5 +5.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
These latest average compared to previous results are somewhat biased because of the switch to a two-week window, but for the first time Romney is behind in every single state I consider a swing state. (RCP lists PA, AZ, MO and OR as well, and Romney is well up in AZ and MO).
Update: Now, someone else on twitter is saying if Romney took all his deductions he would have an effective tax rate of 12.1%, not 9%. Whatever the truth is, the point is not the precise number.
PPP 50-46
NBC/WSJ 50-45
Monmouth 48-45
UPI/Cvoter 49-45
AP 47-46
Pew 51-43
YouGov 49-44
UConn 46-43
Princeton 52-45
Heartland 50-43
ARG 49-47
Angus-Reid 48-46
Gallup 47-47
Rasmussen 46-45
Ipsos/Reuters 48-43
Rand 49-44
Obama: 48.7%
Romney: 44.8%
This week's and previous week's data:
Obama : 48.7 48.7 46.7 46.4 46.7 46.3 47.7 46.8 45.8 46.9 46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0
46.7 46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 44.8 45.4 46.3 45.6 45.4 45.0 44.3 46.0 45.6 44.9 44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1
43.6 45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +3.9 +3.3 +0.4 +0.8 +1.3 +1.3 +3.9 +0.8 +0.2 +2.0 +1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9
+3.1 +0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
At 16 polls a week, how likely are you to be called? As a very rough calculation, assume it takes 10,000 calls to get about 1000 responses. At sixteen polls per week for ten weeks that would be 1.6 million calls, but of course some of these would be to the same person. Ignoring that complication, there are about 160,000,000 people who vote, so that's still only about 1% of the voting public that is called, let alone sampled. People in swing states, where multiple statewide polls are being conducted, have a much better chance of being called, of course.
What to say about the polling? As Schmengie is basically saying, either Rasmussen and Gallup, the two well-known tracking polls, are right (the race is a dead heat), or everyone else is (Obama up about 3%-4%) (two other tracking polls, Ipsos and RAND, are consistent with the non-tracking polls).
It just occurred to me that it would be quite amusing if Romney ended up with 47% of the vote. A distinct possibility at this point.
Intrade latest & weekly history:
Obama: 72% 67% 58% 58% 57% 57% 59% 58% 57% 60% 55% 56% 56% 54% 53%
Romney: 28% 33% 42% 42% 42% 42% 39% 40% 41% 38% 41% 41% 42% 42% 42%
FiveThirtyEight latest & weekly history:
Obama: 76% 79% 78% 72% 69% 70% 72% 72% 67% 67% 67% 68% 63%
Romney: 24% 21% 22% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 33% 33% 33% 32% 37%
Best news for Obama: Apparently, he has a lock on 47% of the vote. That's a pretty big advantage.
Best news for Romney: He presumably has the option to refile his taxes, taking the full deductions allowed by law, once the election is over. So instead of paying at an effective 14.1% by not taking his allowed deductions, as his tax return for 2011 released today shows (to make him look 'good'), he can, after the election is over, refile with all his deductions and get a 9% rate, getting a check back for something on the order of a bazillion dollars. Which he can spend on another car elevator.
As I noted, I'm going to a two-week window for the state polling. And I'm taking PA off the list. Rasmussen itself just had a poll showing PA at +11 Obama...
Swing state polling, averaged for the last month two weeks, taken from RCP data:
Ohio: Obama +4.1 +2.7 +1.0 +1.7 +2.7 +1.8 +4.8 +4.8 +4.3 +4.3
Virginia: Obama +3.3 +1.2 +1.6 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +2.0 +2.8 +2.8 +1.2
Florida: Obama +1.7 +0.9 +0.0 +1.0 +1.4 +1.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.6 +1.1
Iowa: Obama +2.5 +2.0 +0.0 +0.0 -2.0 -2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
Wisconsin: Obama +7.0 +0.8 +2.6 +2.6 +2.6 +3.5 +5.3 +6.0 +6.0 -
Michigan: Obama +8.0 +3.7 +2.8 +2.0 +3.3 +7.7 +6.3 +6.3 +7.0 +4.0
New Hampshire: Obama +1.0 +5.0 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +4.0 +4.0 +2.0
North Carolina: Romney -0.2 +2.9 +1.6 +0.8 +1.0 +1.0 +1.0 +1.5 +0.3 +0.4
Colorado: Obama +2.1 +3.3 +2.3 +1.6 +1.6 +1.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.0 +2.5
Nevada: Obama +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +3.5 +5.5 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
These latest average compared to previous results are somewhat biased because of the switch to a two-week window, but for the first time Romney is behind in every single state I consider a swing state. (RCP lists PA, AZ, MO and OR as well, and Romney is well up in AZ and MO).
Update: Now, someone else on twitter is saying if Romney took all his deductions he would have an effective tax rate of 12.1%, not 9%. Whatever the truth is, the point is not the precise number.