The Senate Pollsters Take Lots of Naps.
New polling has resulted in some signficant re-evaluations in the Senate races in MA and WI, and Nate Silver has come out with his Senate race ratings. I thought that I would redo my Senate ratings without first looking at 538's predictions, and see how we compared.
Here's my new predictions (to the nearest 10%). They've changed from -2.1 D Senators to -1.6 D Senators.
ME: R->D +1.0 (actually R->I)
MA: R->D +0.7
CT: D->R -0.2
VA: D->R -0.5
IN: R->D +0.3
WI: D->R -0.5
MO: D->R -0.3
NE: D->R -1.0
ND: D->R -0.8
MT: D->R -0.7
AZ: R->D +0.2
NV: R->D +0.2
Total: -1.6
All right, now I'm going to look at 538 and translate Nate's predictions into the same format.
ME: R->D +0.9 (actually R->I)
MA: R->D +0.6
CT: D->R -0.3 (-0.25!)
VA: D->R -0.4
IN: R->D +0.5
WI: D->R -0.6
MO: D->R -0.4
NE: D->R -0.8
ND: D->R -0.8
MT: D->R -0.6
AZ: R->D +0.3
NV: R->D +0.4
Total: -1.2
The biggest discrepancies are IN, NE and NV. In Indiana, I assume its 'Republican-ness' will help out Mordock, despite the current polling, just like in MA I assume its 'D-ness' will ultimately aid Warren. I'm surprised at Nate's rating of NE, showing Kerrey with any chance at all, since everyone has completely and utterly written him off. The lack of data is probably why, since there is uncertainty since no one has bothered to poll it in quite a while. Nevada is a toughie. Obama's coattails could help Berkley, along with polling that might undersample Hispanics. But I haven't seen any encouraging polling, and I believe Heller is reasonably popular, which is why I'm more pessimistic.
Here's my new predictions (to the nearest 10%). They've changed from -2.1 D Senators to -1.6 D Senators.
ME: R->D +1.0 (actually R->I)
MA: R->D +0.7
CT: D->R -0.2
VA: D->R -0.5
IN: R->D +0.3
WI: D->R -0.5
MO: D->R -0.3
NE: D->R -1.0
ND: D->R -0.8
MT: D->R -0.7
AZ: R->D +0.2
NV: R->D +0.2
Total: -1.6
All right, now I'm going to look at 538 and translate Nate's predictions into the same format.
ME: R->D +0.9 (actually R->I)
MA: R->D +0.6
CT: D->R -0.3 (-0.25!)
VA: D->R -0.4
IN: R->D +0.5
WI: D->R -0.6
MO: D->R -0.4
NE: D->R -0.8
ND: D->R -0.8
MT: D->R -0.6
AZ: R->D +0.3
NV: R->D +0.4
Total: -1.2
The biggest discrepancies are IN, NE and NV. In Indiana, I assume its 'Republican-ness' will help out Mordock, despite the current polling, just like in MA I assume its 'D-ness' will ultimately aid Warren. I'm surprised at Nate's rating of NE, showing Kerrey with any chance at all, since everyone has completely and utterly written him off. The lack of data is probably why, since there is uncertainty since no one has bothered to poll it in quite a while. Nevada is a toughie. Obama's coattails could help Berkley, along with polling that might undersample Hispanics. But I haven't seen any encouraging polling, and I believe Heller is reasonably popular, which is why I'm more pessimistic.