The Pollsters Never Rest.
While I got to not rest for a week at BARGE. But now it's back to data crunching. There were five national data points last week: Rasmussen Tracking, Gallup Tracking, YouGov, PPP, and Democracy Corps. There was also a Pew poll released this week which was, however, dated last week, which I did not count (even though it has Obama +10 over Romney...).
I could not find the Rasmussen Tracking result for Saturday, the day I normally use, as it is behind their paywall and Daily Kos didn't report it for that day. So I averaged Friday's (43-47) with today's (Monday's) (47-45) to come up with 45-46. The Intrade, 538 and state polling data are all taken as of today (Monday).
The national polling is once again skewing away from the swing state level polling, with Obama continuing to maintain a large lead in Ohio and a small but increasing lead in Florida, even as PPP switched to a likely voter model in it's latest poll.
I truly pity anyone in a swing state who watches television. Having spent a bit of time flipping channels in a hotel room in Nevada, all I can say is that if anyone in a swing state who watches television isn't ready to curse both Obama and Romney already, they certainly will be ready by November. The number of repeated ads is staggering.
Obama: 46.8%
Romney: 46.0%
This week's and previous week's data:
Obama : 46.8 45.8 (46.7) 46.9 46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0 46.7 46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 46.0 45.6 (44.8) 44.9 44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1 43.6 45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +0.8 +0.2 (+1.9) +2.0 +1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9 +3.1 +0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
(The parenthesized data is the results from the week to it's left when
the late-reporting Pew Poll is included)
Intrade latest & weekly history:
Obama: 58% 57% 60% 55% 56% 56% 54% 53%
Romney: 40% 41% 38% 41% 41% 42% 42% 42%
FiveThirtyEight latest & weekly history:
Obama: 72% 67% 67% 67% 68% 63%
Romney: 28% 33% 33% 33% 32% 37%
Best news for Obama: Americans are doing well in the Olympics, the Mars Rover landed successfully, and Ohio, where Obama is up by 5, is still the key to the election.
Best news for Romney: Soon, the dressage nightmare will be over and he can go back to criticizing Obama instead of the way the Olympics are run.
(I kinda missed the political nuances this week)
Swing state polling, averaged for the last month, taken from RCP data:
Ohio: Obama +4.8 +4.3 +4.3
Virginia: Obama +2.8 +2.8 +1.2
Florida: Obama +1.5 +0.6 +1.1
Iowa: Obama +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
Wisconsin: Obama +6.0 +6.0 -
Michigan: Obama +6.3 +7.0 +4.0
Pennsylvania: Obama +7.0 +5.7 +5.7
New Hampshire: Obama +4.0 +4.0 +2.0
North Carolina: Romney +1.5 +0.3 +0.4
Colorado: Obama +1.0 +1.0 +2.5
Nevada: Obama +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
I could not find the Rasmussen Tracking result for Saturday, the day I normally use, as it is behind their paywall and Daily Kos didn't report it for that day. So I averaged Friday's (43-47) with today's (Monday's) (47-45) to come up with 45-46. The Intrade, 538 and state polling data are all taken as of today (Monday).
The national polling is once again skewing away from the swing state level polling, with Obama continuing to maintain a large lead in Ohio and a small but increasing lead in Florida, even as PPP switched to a likely voter model in it's latest poll.
I truly pity anyone in a swing state who watches television. Having spent a bit of time flipping channels in a hotel room in Nevada, all I can say is that if anyone in a swing state who watches television isn't ready to curse both Obama and Romney already, they certainly will be ready by November. The number of repeated ads is staggering.
Obama: 46.8%
Romney: 46.0%
This week's and previous week's data:
Obama : 46.8 45.8 (46.7) 46.9 46.0 47.2 46.8 47.4 46.0 46.7 46.3 46.7 44.3 46.7 47.4 47.3 46.8
Romney: 46.0 45.6 (44.8) 44.9 44.2 44.8 43.7 44.7 44.1 43.6 45.5 44.3 44.4 44.3 45.0 44.3 44.3
Diff: +0.8 +0.2 (+1.9) +2.0 +1.8 +2.4 +3.1 +2.7 +1.9 +3.1 +0.8 +2.4 -0.1 +2.4 +2.4 +3.0 +2.5
(The parenthesized data is the results from the week to it's left when
the late-reporting Pew Poll is included)
Intrade latest & weekly history:
Obama: 58% 57% 60% 55% 56% 56% 54% 53%
Romney: 40% 41% 38% 41% 41% 42% 42% 42%
FiveThirtyEight latest & weekly history:
Obama: 72% 67% 67% 67% 68% 63%
Romney: 28% 33% 33% 33% 32% 37%
Best news for Obama: Americans are doing well in the Olympics, the Mars Rover landed successfully, and Ohio, where Obama is up by 5, is still the key to the election.
Best news for Romney: Soon, the dressage nightmare will be over and he can go back to criticizing Obama instead of the way the Olympics are run.
(I kinda missed the political nuances this week)
Swing state polling, averaged for the last month, taken from RCP data:
Ohio: Obama +4.8 +4.3 +4.3
Virginia: Obama +2.8 +2.8 +1.2
Florida: Obama +1.5 +0.6 +1.1
Iowa: Obama +5.0 +5.0 +5.0
Wisconsin: Obama +6.0 +6.0 -
Michigan: Obama +6.3 +7.0 +4.0
Pennsylvania: Obama +7.0 +5.7 +5.7
New Hampshire: Obama +4.0 +4.0 +2.0
North Carolina: Romney +1.5 +0.3 +0.4
Colorado: Obama +1.0 +1.0 +2.5
Nevada: Obama +5.0 +5.0 +5.0