More fun with states
The latest polling news is bringing tidings of great joy to the 375
paid staffers and thousands of volunteers making up the Obama campaign
in North Carolina:
M: 46% O: 46%
And the previous poll, three days prior has
M: 48% O: 47%
It is interesting to contrast what is happening in North Carolina
(15 electoral votes) with what is happening (or rather not happening)
in Indiana (11 electoral votes).
In Indiana, despite one poll that showed Obama ahead, and an RCP
average of the polls showing McCain only ahead by 2.3%, bloggers
continue to report that there is virtually no visible McCain campaign
presence in the state.
In North Carolina, on the other hand, while the RCP average still has
McCain far ahead at +8.2%, his campaign is reportedly moving in a lot
of resources and is beginning to spend heavily on advertising.
Given that Obama has and is pouring large amounts of resources into
both states, there's something of a disconnect here. Does McCain
still believe Obama has no realistic shot at Indiana? If so, what
does he know that neither the polls nor the Obama campaign discern?
Perhaps he has no resources left to commit? Or is it because he
figures that if he loses Indiana the election will have already been
lost, so why worry about it? Crystal ball fuzzy -- try again on
November 5th...
Clearly McCain believes he is in some peril in North Carolina. He
wouldn't be committing significant resources there when he has need of
them in VA, OH, MI, PA, FL, CO, NH and NV otherwise. Why is North
Carolina suddenly getting so much attention? One reason for his
concern might be North Carolina's latest voter registration numbers.
Since January, 194,000 new Democratic voters have registered, while
just 29,000 new Republicans have done so. 140,000 new independents
have also registered. Ignoring for the moment how the Independent
voters might skew (but noting that many of them were probably
registered by Obama supporters, in Obama-leaning demographics, because
that's what the Obama campaign has been doing for a months now), the
difference between new Democrats and new Republicans alone represents
a gain of 4.7% over the total votes cast in 2004. And thus perhaps as
much as 6% if new independents are taken into account as well.
Yes, Bush beat Kerry there in 2004 by 12%, but demographic changes
since then, plus this year's voter registration data and quite likely
the brutal state of the economy have made it clear to both campaigns
that North Carolina is a state that can go either way.
Analysis of Indiana voter registrations is more difficult, since
Indiana does not register by party. The Indiana Secretary of State
estimates that from the start of this year to the time registration
closes upwards of 750,000 new or updated registrations will have been
received by his office, and more than 500,000 had already been
received as of the beginning of September.
Still, Bush beat Kerry in Indiana by 21%, and no plausible amount of
demographic shift or new voter registrations could overcome that. If
the Obama campaign is correct, there has to be a really big shift in
public attitudes from four years ago to go along with a better voter
registration outlook. Whereas in North Carolina, it would take a 3%-4%
swing in voter attitudes (coupled with a 6% increase in
Democratic-leaning voters) to bring the state to about dead even, in
Indiana it would take a 7.5%-9% swing in voter attitudes, assuming the
same 6% increase in new Democratic-leaning votes.
Footnote: While North Carolina offers four more electoral votes than
Indiana, this year it also offers up another valuable commodity unlike
Indiana: a Senate seat. The latest poll has the challenger, Hagan,
leading the incumbent, Dole, while electoral-vote.com shows the race
dead even. Previous data had shown Dole to have a fairly comfortable,
if diminishing, lead. Yet another reason for both campaigns to fight
fiercely for North Carolina's favor.
paid staffers and thousands of volunteers making up the Obama campaign
in North Carolina:
M: 46% O: 46%
And the previous poll, three days prior has
M: 48% O: 47%
It is interesting to contrast what is happening in North Carolina
(15 electoral votes) with what is happening (or rather not happening)
in Indiana (11 electoral votes).
In Indiana, despite one poll that showed Obama ahead, and an RCP
average of the polls showing McCain only ahead by 2.3%, bloggers
continue to report that there is virtually no visible McCain campaign
presence in the state.
In North Carolina, on the other hand, while the RCP average still has
McCain far ahead at +8.2%, his campaign is reportedly moving in a lot
of resources and is beginning to spend heavily on advertising.
Given that Obama has and is pouring large amounts of resources into
both states, there's something of a disconnect here. Does McCain
still believe Obama has no realistic shot at Indiana? If so, what
does he know that neither the polls nor the Obama campaign discern?
Perhaps he has no resources left to commit? Or is it because he
figures that if he loses Indiana the election will have already been
lost, so why worry about it? Crystal ball fuzzy -- try again on
November 5th...
Clearly McCain believes he is in some peril in North Carolina. He
wouldn't be committing significant resources there when he has need of
them in VA, OH, MI, PA, FL, CO, NH and NV otherwise. Why is North
Carolina suddenly getting so much attention? One reason for his
concern might be North Carolina's latest voter registration numbers.
Since January, 194,000 new Democratic voters have registered, while
just 29,000 new Republicans have done so. 140,000 new independents
have also registered. Ignoring for the moment how the Independent
voters might skew (but noting that many of them were probably
registered by Obama supporters, in Obama-leaning demographics, because
that's what the Obama campaign has been doing for a months now), the
difference between new Democrats and new Republicans alone represents
a gain of 4.7% over the total votes cast in 2004. And thus perhaps as
much as 6% if new independents are taken into account as well.
Yes, Bush beat Kerry there in 2004 by 12%, but demographic changes
since then, plus this year's voter registration data and quite likely
the brutal state of the economy have made it clear to both campaigns
that North Carolina is a state that can go either way.
Analysis of Indiana voter registrations is more difficult, since
Indiana does not register by party. The Indiana Secretary of State
estimates that from the start of this year to the time registration
closes upwards of 750,000 new or updated registrations will have been
received by his office, and more than 500,000 had already been
received as of the beginning of September.
Still, Bush beat Kerry in Indiana by 21%, and no plausible amount of
demographic shift or new voter registrations could overcome that. If
the Obama campaign is correct, there has to be a really big shift in
public attitudes from four years ago to go along with a better voter
registration outlook. Whereas in North Carolina, it would take a 3%-4%
swing in voter attitudes (coupled with a 6% increase in
Democratic-leaning voters) to bring the state to about dead even, in
Indiana it would take a 7.5%-9% swing in voter attitudes, assuming the
same 6% increase in new Democratic-leaning votes.
Footnote: While North Carolina offers four more electoral votes than
Indiana, this year it also offers up another valuable commodity unlike
Indiana: a Senate seat. The latest poll has the challenger, Hagan,
leading the incumbent, Dole, while electoral-vote.com shows the race
dead even. Previous data had shown Dole to have a fairly comfortable,
if diminishing, lead. Yet another reason for both campaigns to fight
fiercely for North Carolina's favor.