The Race for the Senate: Predictions

[jpmassar]

Two slight changes to the polling averages from I showed yesterday in West Virginia and Alaska, due to late-night updates by Pollster. No new polls have materialized this morning.

Here's my Senate prediction for the remaining competitive races:

Democrats: California, West Virginia, Washington, Nevada
Republicans: Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania
Snowball fight: Alaska

Totals: Democrats 52+ (including Sanders and Lieberman and possibly McAdams from Alaska), Republicans 47+ (including possibly Murkowski or Miller from Alaska).

Reid will win because he will pull out all the stops, possibly including some Chicago-style plugs -- he's gotten the support of many from the Republican establishment. It will be close.

Bennet in Colorado and Giannoulias in Illinois will lose because they don't have the organization Reid has -- not enough to overcome their small deficits in the polls.

In the House: A 50 seat Republican gain. (Plus or minus a bazillion.)

In California: Proposition 19 (Marijuana Legalization) will go down to defeat by about Proposition 8 margins (52-48). Polls have it losing by more than that, although the very latest poll is consistent with this margin.

D seat #  
State
Dem.
Rep.   
Pollster  
RCP

49
California
Boxer
Fiorina
+5
+5

50
West Virginia
Manchin
Raese
+3
+5

51
Washington
Murray
Rossi
+1
+0

========

52
Colorado
Bennet
Buck
-2
-3

53
Illinois
Giannoulias
Kirk
-2
-3

54
Nevada
Reid
Angle
-3
-3

55
Pennsylvania
Sestak
Toomey
-4
-5

56
Alaska
McAdams
Miller
-5
?