The Race for the Senate: It Ain't Over Until Attu, Kiska and Amchitkta Sing
We're pretty much down to five interesting races: Washington, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada and Alaska. The Democrats could pull off a minor miracle in Pennsylvania, but that's probably no more likely than the Republicans pulling off a miracle in West Virginia or California.
In Washington, the latest polls all bounce around zero, and it's quite possible that the winner will not be known for days because Washington's all-mail balloting system requires only that ballots be postmarked by election day, not received.
Were Washington to go Republican, in order to hold 51 seats Democrats would have to win one of Colorado (-2), Illinois (-2.5), Nevada (-3), or Alaska (wtfk). Even if you're behind a small amount in all of them, winning one of them would normally be quite likely, but this does not feel like a normal election year (if ever there was such a thing).
In both Colorado and Nevada, polling indicates that the Democrats have an edge in votes already cast (+6 and +4 respectively, according to the pollster PPP) while the Republicans make that edge back and more among voters who will vote on election day -- even though around 2/3rds of the vote has already been cast. (!) In Washington the opposite is the case, at least according to PPP.
Again, no one has the faintest idea what will happen in Alaska, and if Lisa Murkowski, the writein candidate, is leading by a small amount as the night wears on, it could be months of legal challenges before a winner is declared.
D seat #
State
Dem.
Rep.
Pollster
RCP
49
California
Boxer
Fiorina
+5
+5
50
West Virginia
Manchin
Raese
+4
+5
51
Washington
Murray
Rossi
+1
+0
========
52
Colorado
Bennet
Buck
-1
-3
53
Illinois
Giannoulias
Kirk
-2
-3
54
Nevada
Reid
Angle
-3
-3
55
Pennsylvania
Sestak
Toomey
-4
-5
56
Alaska
McAdams
Miller
-6
?
In Washington, the latest polls all bounce around zero, and it's quite possible that the winner will not be known for days because Washington's all-mail balloting system requires only that ballots be postmarked by election day, not received.
Were Washington to go Republican, in order to hold 51 seats Democrats would have to win one of Colorado (-2), Illinois (-2.5), Nevada (-3), or Alaska (wtfk). Even if you're behind a small amount in all of them, winning one of them would normally be quite likely, but this does not feel like a normal election year (if ever there was such a thing).
In both Colorado and Nevada, polling indicates that the Democrats have an edge in votes already cast (+6 and +4 respectively, according to the pollster PPP) while the Republicans make that edge back and more among voters who will vote on election day -- even though around 2/3rds of the vote has already been cast. (!) In Washington the opposite is the case, at least according to PPP.
Again, no one has the faintest idea what will happen in Alaska, and if Lisa Murkowski, the writein candidate, is leading by a small amount as the night wears on, it could be months of legal challenges before a winner is declared.
D seat #
State
Dem.
Rep.
Pollster
RCP
49
California
Boxer
Fiorina
+5
+5
50
West Virginia
Manchin
Raese
+4
+5
51
Washington
Murray
Rossi
+1
+0
========
52
Colorado
Bennet
Buck
-1
-3
53
Illinois
Giannoulias
Kirk
-2
-3
54
Nevada
Reid
Angle
-3
-3
55
Pennsylvania
Sestak
Toomey
-4
-5
56
Alaska
McAdams
Miller
-6
?