The Race for the Senate
Nothing much has changed in the polling averages. A poll finally came out of Washington showing the Republican ahead by 1%, but it was a Rasmussen poll, so that means the Democrat is actually ahead by 1%. Despite this obvious truth, the polling averages for Washington tightened as a result. Interestingly, I haven't seen any report about the crosstabs of that poll showing the results from those that have already voted (probably something like 60% of the electorate by now in Washington's all-vote-by-mail system).
The real news, however, is in Florida and Alaska.
In Florida, the New York Times has reported that the Democrat, Meek, almost withdrew and then changed his mind at the last minute. A poll out today shows Crist, the independent, behind Rubio, the Republican, by 7%. If Meek's support were to indeed collapse (which might be the strategy behind releasing the details of the failed negotiations) Crist could well pick up that 7% and then it would be 'game on'. I've added Florida to the table of Senate races below because of this, even though the polling averages show Crist more than 10% behind Rubio.
In Alaska, a new poll from an unknown pollster shows an unnamed write-in candidate (aka Lisa Murkowski) now ahead, with the Democrat, Scott McAdams, in second place, and the Republican Tea Party candidate, Joe Miller, in 3rd. Miller had now admitted to lying, admitted to illegal use of government resources, admitted to being fired from his government job, had his thugs handcuff a reporter, and, IIRC, been accused of defrauding both the Alaskan and Federal governments by claiming to be indigent when at the time of the claim he was actually working at a reasonably well-paying job. By all rights, he should be toast. But with the lack of polling and the uncertainly posed by a write-in candidate, it looks like we're just going to have to wait until November 3rd to know just how badly, if at all, this has hurt him.
D seat #
State
Dem.
Rep.
Pollster
RCP
49
California
Boxer
Fiorina
+4
+6
50
West Virginia
Manchin
Raese
+2
+5
51
Washington
Murray
Rossi
+2
+1
========
52
Colorado
Bennet
Buck
-1
-2
53
Illinois
Giannoulias
Kirk
-1
-3
54
Nevada
Reid
Angle
-3
-2
55
Pennsylvania
Sestak
Toomey
-3
-5
56
Wisconsin
Feingold
Johnson
-6
-6
57
Kentucky
Conway
Paul
-6
-8
58
Missouri
Carnahan
Blunt
-8
-10
59
New Hampshire
Hodes
Ayotte
-10
-9
60
Alaska
McAdams
Miller
-8
-10
61
Florida
Crist
Rubio
-11
-11
The real news, however, is in Florida and Alaska.
In Florida, the New York Times has reported that the Democrat, Meek, almost withdrew and then changed his mind at the last minute. A poll out today shows Crist, the independent, behind Rubio, the Republican, by 7%. If Meek's support were to indeed collapse (which might be the strategy behind releasing the details of the failed negotiations) Crist could well pick up that 7% and then it would be 'game on'. I've added Florida to the table of Senate races below because of this, even though the polling averages show Crist more than 10% behind Rubio.
In Alaska, a new poll from an unknown pollster shows an unnamed write-in candidate (aka Lisa Murkowski) now ahead, with the Democrat, Scott McAdams, in second place, and the Republican Tea Party candidate, Joe Miller, in 3rd. Miller had now admitted to lying, admitted to illegal use of government resources, admitted to being fired from his government job, had his thugs handcuff a reporter, and, IIRC, been accused of defrauding both the Alaskan and Federal governments by claiming to be indigent when at the time of the claim he was actually working at a reasonably well-paying job. By all rights, he should be toast. But with the lack of polling and the uncertainly posed by a write-in candidate, it looks like we're just going to have to wait until November 3rd to know just how badly, if at all, this has hurt him.
D seat #
State
Dem.
Rep.
Pollster
RCP
49
California
Boxer
Fiorina
+4
+6
50
West Virginia
Manchin
Raese
+2
+5
51
Washington
Murray
Rossi
+2
+1
========
52
Colorado
Bennet
Buck
-1
-2
53
Illinois
Giannoulias
Kirk
-1
-3
54
Nevada
Reid
Angle
-3
-2
55
Pennsylvania
Sestak
Toomey
-3
-5
56
Wisconsin
Feingold
Johnson
-6
-6
57
Kentucky
Conway
Paul
-6
-8
58
Missouri
Carnahan
Blunt
-8
-10
59
New Hampshire
Hodes
Ayotte
-10
-9
60
Alaska
McAdams
Miller
-8
-10
61
Florida
Crist
Rubio
-11
-11