The Race for the Senate
Starting with 59 Democratic-caucusing seats and taking away four that Republicans are sure to win (AR, IN, ND, OH), leaves 55. Of the nine Democratic seats that are contested (CT, WA, CA, WV, NV, IL, CO, PA, WI), the Democrats must hold five to control the Senate. In fact, they must hold six if you believe, as many do that Joe Lieberman would become a Republican if there were a 50-50 tie. Of course, they could alter this calculus by winning an existing Republican seat or two but at the moment their prospects of doing so in any of four states (AK, KY, MO, NH) are not good (albeit getting a bit better).
Here are the contested races (those within 10% in the polling averages), ordered using polling average differentials (Democrat candidate's polling average less Republican candidate's polling average) from Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics.
Dem. seats
State
Democrat
Republican
Pollster.com
RCP
48
Connecticut
Blumenthal
McMahon
+8
+8
49
Washington
Murray
Rossi
+4
+6
50
California
Boxer
Fiornia
+4
+2
51
West Virginia
Manchin
Raese
+3
+3
========
52
Nevada
Reid
Angle
-1
0
53
Illinois
Giannooulias
Kirk
-1
0
54
Colorado
Bennet
Buck
-4
-2
55
Kentucky
Conway
Paul
-7
-5
56
Pennsylvania
Sestak
Toomey
-6
-8
57
Wisconsin
Feingold
Johnson
-8
-7
58
Alaska
McAdams
Miller
-7
-11
59
New Hampshire
Hodes
Ayotte
-9
-9
60
Missouri
Carnahan
Blunt
-9
-9
A week ago, the pivot seat for control of the Senate pointed at Nevada, with the outcome of the race a tossup. Now, the pivot is on West Virginia instead, with the Democratic candidate leading by a small, but significant, amount. With the West Virginian Republican candidate's wife just being stripped of her voter registration in the state because she actually lives in Florida (and has another house in Colorado), things are looking much better for the Democrat, incumbent governor Joe Manchin, than they did two weeks ago when it looked like the state might have to written off.
It also looks like races are getting closer in Missouri, Alaska, Kentucky and Colorado (and perhaps Pennsylvania) -- although the polling averages don't show it if such exists except in Colorado, because there hasn't been much up-to-date polling in those other states -- while Nevada and Illinois remain tossups. This gives Democrats at least a shot at limiting their losses further.
Here are the contested races (those within 10% in the polling averages), ordered using polling average differentials (Democrat candidate's polling average less Republican candidate's polling average) from Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics.
Dem. seats
State
Democrat
Republican
Pollster.com
RCP
48
Connecticut
Blumenthal
McMahon
+8
+8
49
Washington
Murray
Rossi
+4
+6
50
California
Boxer
Fiornia
+4
+2
51
West Virginia
Manchin
Raese
+3
+3
========
52
Nevada
Reid
Angle
-1
0
53
Illinois
Giannooulias
Kirk
-1
0
54
Colorado
Bennet
Buck
-4
-2
55
Kentucky
Conway
Paul
-7
-5
56
Pennsylvania
Sestak
Toomey
-6
-8
57
Wisconsin
Feingold
Johnson
-8
-7
58
Alaska
McAdams
Miller
-7
-11
59
New Hampshire
Hodes
Ayotte
-9
-9
60
Missouri
Carnahan
Blunt
-9
-9
A week ago, the pivot seat for control of the Senate pointed at Nevada, with the outcome of the race a tossup. Now, the pivot is on West Virginia instead, with the Democratic candidate leading by a small, but significant, amount. With the West Virginian Republican candidate's wife just being stripped of her voter registration in the state because she actually lives in Florida (and has another house in Colorado), things are looking much better for the Democrat, incumbent governor Joe Manchin, than they did two weeks ago when it looked like the state might have to written off.
It also looks like races are getting closer in Missouri, Alaska, Kentucky and Colorado (and perhaps Pennsylvania) -- although the polling averages don't show it if such exists except in Colorado, because there hasn't been much up-to-date polling in those other states -- while Nevada and Illinois remain tossups. This gives Democrats at least a shot at limiting their losses further.