With Liberty And Justice For All? Maine for All the Marbles.
Who'd of thunk? Maine, a state with far more moose than Mormons, has
become the focus of the equal marriage rights battle and, by
extension, the battle for gay rights in the US. The campaign over
Question 1, a people's veto which would overturn Maine's enactment
last Spring of a law legalizing same-sex marriage, has given Maine its
15 weeks of fame.
And well-deserved attention it is. A year ago, pro equal-rights
forces were caught off-guard in California by the ferocity and
direction of the attacks on equal marriage rights, and by the
enthusiasm bordering on fanaticism of their opponents.
Not so this time. This is a fight on neutral ground, on equal terms,
with both sides well prepared.
This time, NO on Question 1 has a fully armed and operational battle station campaign organization, funded with a war chest that far exceeds per capita what was spent in California and enabled by up to 8000 volunteers (one for every 75 likely Maine voters!) and the latest in phone-banking technology, is knowledgeable of their opponents tactics and advertising strategies and is blessed with poignant videos of their own. There can be no excuses made as in California for failure.
Yet while polling is favorable, failure is still a possibility.
While some polls show a decent lead for NO on Question 1, others show
the two sides neck and neck. And everyone is haunted by the spectre
of California, where the polls at the end bespoke of a tossup
yet equal rights lost 52%-48%.
Besides the effects on Maine's same-sex couples, what are the stakes?
Success would mean that, for the first time ever in the history of
the world, equal marriage rights would have been instituted by a
vote of the people.
Success would scream that people's minds can be changed; that the
right kinds of advertisements, enough volunteers, and the right
organization can have a significant effect. And failure would suggest
that the only real hope for equal rights is to wait for the
demographics of the United States to shift -- that is, for enough of
the older generation to die off and today's teenagers to become
eligible to vote.
Success would create overwhelming momentum to attempt to override
California's Proposition 8 in 2010, providing that campaign with
enthusiastic volunteers and willing donors. Failure would likely mean
the collapse of those efforts until at least 2012, and possibly later.
Success would provide impetus to legislators in New York and New
Jersey to enact same-sex marriage legislation this fall, while failure
could provide just enough rationalization to allow those efforts to
languish for years.
Success would probably generate an energized effort on the part of activists
to revoke the military's Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT) policy by Congress.
It would put significant pressure on Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, Maine's
senators, to support such legislation as well as the repeal of the
Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA). And failure would likely have the
opposite effect. Snowe's and Collins' votes could prove critical in
obtaining the 60 votes in the Senate necessary to allow such bills to
come to a vote, and hence ultimately becoming law.
Equal rights for gays, lesbians, bisexuals and transgendered people has
been called the "the civil rights test of our generation."
Give it up for success.
Here are the latest NO on Question 1 and YES on Question 1 ads to
air in Maine.
become the focus of the equal marriage rights battle and, by
extension, the battle for gay rights in the US. The campaign over
Question 1, a people's veto which would overturn Maine's enactment
last Spring of a law legalizing same-sex marriage, has given Maine its
15 weeks of fame.
And well-deserved attention it is. A year ago, pro equal-rights
forces were caught off-guard in California by the ferocity and
direction of the attacks on equal marriage rights, and by the
enthusiasm bordering on fanaticism of their opponents.
Not so this time. This is a fight on neutral ground, on equal terms,
with both sides well prepared.
This time, NO on Question 1 has a fully armed and operational battle station campaign organization, funded with a war chest that far exceeds per capita what was spent in California and enabled by up to 8000 volunteers (one for every 75 likely Maine voters!) and the latest in phone-banking technology, is knowledgeable of their opponents tactics and advertising strategies and is blessed with poignant videos of their own. There can be no excuses made as in California for failure.
Yet while polling is favorable, failure is still a possibility.
While some polls show a decent lead for NO on Question 1, others show
the two sides neck and neck. And everyone is haunted by the spectre
of California, where the polls at the end bespoke of a tossup
yet equal rights lost 52%-48%.
Besides the effects on Maine's same-sex couples, what are the stakes?
Success would mean that, for the first time ever in the history of
the world, equal marriage rights would have been instituted by a
vote of the people.
Success would scream that people's minds can be changed; that the
right kinds of advertisements, enough volunteers, and the right
organization can have a significant effect. And failure would suggest
that the only real hope for equal rights is to wait for the
demographics of the United States to shift -- that is, for enough of
the older generation to die off and today's teenagers to become
eligible to vote.
Success would create overwhelming momentum to attempt to override
California's Proposition 8 in 2010, providing that campaign with
enthusiastic volunteers and willing donors. Failure would likely mean
the collapse of those efforts until at least 2012, and possibly later.
Success would provide impetus to legislators in New York and New
Jersey to enact same-sex marriage legislation this fall, while failure
could provide just enough rationalization to allow those efforts to
languish for years.
Success would probably generate an energized effort on the part of activists
to revoke the military's Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT) policy by Congress.
It would put significant pressure on Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, Maine's
senators, to support such legislation as well as the repeal of the
Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA). And failure would likely have the
opposite effect. Snowe's and Collins' votes could prove critical in
obtaining the 60 votes in the Senate necessary to allow such bills to
come to a vote, and hence ultimately becoming law.
Equal rights for gays, lesbians, bisexuals and transgendered people has
been called the "the civil rights test of our generation."
Give it up for success.
Here are the latest NO on Question 1 and YES on Question 1 ads to
air in Maine.
Click to view