Campaign status

[jpmassar]

So in the last week 415 pledged delegates were up for grabs.
And what happened? Nothing. Again. Zero, zippo, zilch.

Here's the rundown (from Obama's perspective):

Vermont: +3
Rhode Island: -5
Ohio: -9
Texas primary: -4
Texas caucus: +7
Wyoming: +2
Mississippi: +5

Net: -1 (But the Texas caucus is still not all counted. I used
a conservative estimate. The actual net could be +1).

According to Real Clear Politics, Obama now leads by 158
pledged delegates, and trails in superdelegates by 36.
The superdelegate spread is actually 1 more than they
reported on March 5th, so Obama's closing of the superdelegate
gap has been stalled.

The current Intrade contracts on the nomination are:

Obama: 77
Clinton: 23

marginally different from 73/27 reported on March 5th.

Obama now leads in the popular vote total by at least 660,000 votes,
not including certain caucus states (which should add about 100,000 to
Obama's total) and not including Florida or Michigan.

There are 10 contests left. Here's a plausible, possibly conservative
(from the Obama standpoint) set of results:

Pennsylvannia : -15
North Carolina: +9
Indiana: 0
West Virginia: -4
Kentucky: -7
Oregon: +3
Montana: +2
South Dakota: +1
Guam: 0
Puerto Rico: -6

Net: Obama: -17

That would leave Obama with a pledged delegate lead of approximately
140 delegates going into the convention.