Campaign status: One day to go
Democratic primary status:
There's no knockout blowing in the wind. As I suggested a week or so
ago, the end result of tomorrow's contests still suggests a wash in
net delegates, while Clinton may claim the right to continue with a
reasonable win in Ohio and a possible squeaker in Texas.
The polls:
Ohio: The average of the most recent polls have Clinton up by 6%.
Obama has failed to close the gap, in fact it has increased a bit
since Friday. (Some have argued that weekend polling (which all these
most recent polls represent) is suspect because the demographics that
vote for Obama are less likely to be home.)
Texas: Obama maintains the slimmest of leads, 0.3% being the average
at RCP, while the average of the very latest polls give Clinton a tiny
edge. 1/3rd of Texas' delegates will be awarded in the caucus which
will take place after the polls close on Tuesday, and Obama is
expected to do far better in that, mroe than erasing any net delegates
Clinton might pick up via the primary.
Rhode Island: The latest poll has Clinton +5%, a big tilt towards
Obama from previous results.
The only polling factor favoring Obama right now is that, except for
the New Hampshire primary, the polling has consistently underreported
Obama's strength by an average of about 8% (and still about 6% if you
factor in the New Hampshire debacle), while underreporting Clinton's
strength by less than 2%.
The delegates:
Over the weekend, the superdelegate spread has changed from +50
Clinton to +45 Clinton. In the last week Clinton has lost more
superdelegates than she could pick up under any currently projected
scenario on March 4th.
The money markets (intrade):
Clinton is now a significant favorite to win Ohio (vs. a small fav.)
Obama is still a significant favorite to win Texas (defying the polling)
Clinton is now a significant favorite to win Rhode Island (vs. a big fav.)
Obama is still an overwhelming favorite to win Vermont.
The current contracts for the nomination are approx
Obama: 85
Clinton: 14
about the same as they have been the last few days.
There's no knockout blowing in the wind. As I suggested a week or so
ago, the end result of tomorrow's contests still suggests a wash in
net delegates, while Clinton may claim the right to continue with a
reasonable win in Ohio and a possible squeaker in Texas.
The polls:
Ohio: The average of the most recent polls have Clinton up by 6%.
Obama has failed to close the gap, in fact it has increased a bit
since Friday. (Some have argued that weekend polling (which all these
most recent polls represent) is suspect because the demographics that
vote for Obama are less likely to be home.)
Texas: Obama maintains the slimmest of leads, 0.3% being the average
at RCP, while the average of the very latest polls give Clinton a tiny
edge. 1/3rd of Texas' delegates will be awarded in the caucus which
will take place after the polls close on Tuesday, and Obama is
expected to do far better in that, mroe than erasing any net delegates
Clinton might pick up via the primary.
Rhode Island: The latest poll has Clinton +5%, a big tilt towards
Obama from previous results.
The only polling factor favoring Obama right now is that, except for
the New Hampshire primary, the polling has consistently underreported
Obama's strength by an average of about 8% (and still about 6% if you
factor in the New Hampshire debacle), while underreporting Clinton's
strength by less than 2%.
The delegates:
Over the weekend, the superdelegate spread has changed from +50
Clinton to +45 Clinton. In the last week Clinton has lost more
superdelegates than she could pick up under any currently projected
scenario on March 4th.
The money markets (intrade):
Clinton is now a significant favorite to win Ohio (vs. a small fav.)
Obama is still a significant favorite to win Texas (defying the polling)
Clinton is now a significant favorite to win Rhode Island (vs. a big fav.)
Obama is still an overwhelming favorite to win Vermont.
The current contracts for the nomination are approx
Obama: 85
Clinton: 14
about the same as they have been the last few days.