Almost everything has gotten cheaper (in real dollars) or better over time, hasn't it? For some products, there are predictable seasonal changes, but over the course of years I can't think of any consumer purchase (i.e. not investment) which you'd've been better off buying early.
Additionally, buying N years before your existing one wears out wastes N years of use of your current. You'll end up buying more mattresses in your lifetime with this strategy. Even if it's a one-off and you then revert to the strategy of "replace only when needed", you increase the chance that you'll buy an extra mattress during your lifetime by N/15.
Important exception: actual knowledge of industry or specific item may lead you to believe there's an opportunity that's unlikely to repeat. For mattresses, I strongly doubt it - they're fungible, storable, and common enough that EMH will come close to applying: any discount available now will be equally available in the future.
Far more important exception: if a new mattress is actually more comfortable than your existing mattress, it's a HUGE life-happiness win to get it as soon as possible, damn the price optimization.
Additionally, buying N years before your existing one wears out wastes N years of use of your current. You'll end up buying more mattresses in your lifetime with this strategy. Even if it's a one-off and you then revert to the strategy of "replace only when needed", you increase the chance that you'll buy an extra mattress during your lifetime by N/15.
Important exception: actual knowledge of industry or specific item may lead you to believe there's an opportunity that's unlikely to repeat. For mattresses, I strongly doubt it - they're fungible, storable, and common enough that EMH will come close to applying: any discount available now will be equally available in the future.
Far more important exception: if a new mattress is actually more comfortable than your existing mattress, it's a HUGE life-happiness win to get it as soon as possible, damn the price optimization.
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