Jun 03, 2006 11:38
So, I went to Yancey's and played some poker (as we do every few nights or so, if you are at all interested in coming, just leave a comment. we are ALWAYS in need of people to play)
But, yeah. so, the first game we played for $10 with 20,000 in chips. blinds started at a measley 100/200 (normally blinds start at 1/50th of your and you still dont have to play just about any hands. with 1/100th of your stack, it's much, much, more slow and it is literally only correct to play the top 7.5% of your hands instead of the top 15%. top 15% is kjo or better, top 7.5% would be aj+ or better)
ok, well, one player was knocked out outta five. after a few caught bluffs and an outdraw by a 5 outter i was down to my last 11,000 and a little bit on tilt from the last hand. I announce that i am either allin or folding from now on.
i am under the gun (which is the position in which you are first to act preflop. From this position you have to play much better hands than you would normally have to. For example: it is mathematically correct to fold an ajo from under the gun when there are eight people left to act, but, it is also mathematically correct to raise any ace or any king when there are only three people left to act.) anyways, i am under the gun and as i said not but seconds before this, i am either allin or folding from now on. I look down at an a7+. there are three people to act behind me and as i said, i'm allin. it folds around to the bigblind who seems agonized by this. he has 13000 in chips. blinds are currently 300/600 so there is (without all my chips) only 900 in the pot. he decides to call for almost exactly 85% of his chips with an a10o.
now, i am going to go into my rant on why calling this is one of the worst plays you can possibly make:
There is 900 in the pot that you are fighting over. i make a massive overbet of this pot of about 12.25x the pot. you currently have 600 in the pot and 12400 in your stack. you look down at a hand such as a10o. Now, this is exactly when you muck your hand and here is why: you are putting in 11000 to get out 22600. that means you are getting a little over even odds on your money (1.05:1) on your money, so, by logic, of the time you have to be right for this call to be correct, you have to be right 51.6% of the time to make it. then, you have to add in the fact that there was only 900 in the pot and the bet was 11000. therefore you calculate odds by multiplying the return according to the risk: (1.05x12.25):1 . which means that you have to be right 12.86 times for every one time that you are wrong. then you have to add in your stack. the risk of your 85% of your stack. Now, without going into specific calcualations, how much each chip of yours is currently worth is compared to how much each chip would be worth if you won or lost, and the percentages deviate by a little over 32% each way. with deviation downward 32% if you won (which means each of your let's say, 1000 chips, would be worth 32% less (which is good because you can lose more and have it mean less, which also logically means that you can put more pressure on people and play more hands, which, statistically speaking, means you are more likely to win more pots and win overally), and upward 68% (Which is bad, because the deviation should be about even for calls to be correct) if you lost. therefor you also have to be right another 3times for every one time you are wrong. so, you multiply 12.86 by 3 turning out to be 38.58. this means that you have to be right about this call 38.58 times for every one time you are wrong for this to be a correctly profitable call.
now, let's count how many hands beat this a10o: all thirteen pkt pairs and aj, aq, ak, and then all things not sharing an ace are only a 2:3 underdog.
so, for his call to be correct with ANY two cards in the deck EVEN WITHOUT calculating the damage to his stack, he'd have to have me dominated 12.25:1. the ONLY hands in which you can POSSIBLY dominate someone 12.25:1 are when you have something like pkt aces vs an ace with anything other than another ace. or just any pkt pair with a shared top card and lower kicker. and that is the ONLY CASE in which the call is CLOSE to correct mathematically.
well, after being knocked out by the horrible call, i waited paid up and waited for the next game.
We played again and i dominated almost the entire game. i didnt get caught bluffing once and played relatively solid throughout. I won a few key pots and then had a 4:1 chip advantage over my opponents when it came to three handed play. With the blinds so high, there was nothing they could do but war it out for second (in our games, 1st gets majority of money and second gets money back. this is all depending on how many people are there of course, but, that's normally the way it goes 5-7 handed) So, needless to say, i won. I walked into his house with $21 and left with $51. nice profit for a couple hours of play if you ask me.
ok, well, that was my night. if you took the time to read this, hopefully you know a little more about pot odds/how bad of a call that was.