Gathering Storm in the Mideast

Jun 13, 2014 23:10

As many may now be aware, a radical Islamofascist organization, ISIS, which had been fighting in the Syrian Civil War, has now invaded Iraq.  With amazing speed, they have vanquished one Iraqi military formation after another, and are wreaking dreadful atrocities on the helpless civilian population.  Mosul and Tikrit have fallen.  Advancing ISIS ( Read more... )

strategy, diplomacy, war, al qaeda, iraq

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skarman June 14 2014, 09:35:17 UTC
Personally, the US and the rest of the world needs to stay out of it.

First off, the rest of the western world has always looked to the US to do the heavy lifting, all the while accusing them of acting in imperialistic ways. Even when Europe ostensibly takes the lead, as in the whole Libya situation, they demand and need US support and then shove the leadership mantle at them. The US should now, step back and let the rest of the world deal with this.

The US has too many internal problems to be doing anything outside of its borders. High unemployment. A massive divide between pie-in-the-sky nutjobs who see racism/fascims/war-on-women/triggers etc. in everything from sixty year old novels to songs from the Rolling Stones and conservatives and those that actually take the time to look around and think for themselves. Out of control spending, out of control government invasion of privacy, militarisation of local police forces and subsequent police brutality. A massive, seemingly orchestrated invasion of illegals at the border. The VA scandals. Numerous other events that cast a negative light on the state of the country.

It is time for the US to actually work on cleaning up the mess in their own yard.

As for Europe, well, there, too, the need is clean up their own messes. While not as polarised yet as in the US, more and more people are divided about what to do about the politicians and their pet projects.

The Middle East has always been a hell hole, fighting between the differing sects of islam has always been part and parcel of life there. Only due to foreign intervention and later, due to strong leaders, like Saddam Hussein, Quaddafi, Assad and Mubarak, did such events die down to a very low level and relative peace reign for a century or so. After all, we all needed the oil and having constant fighting in the region was not ideal for prices. I'm not saying these leaders were or are nice people, because they aren't but the fact remains, that mostly, during their reigns, fights between differing groups, be they sunni, shiite, coptic christian, catholic etc. was largely non-existent. People of differing faiths lived rather peacefully next to each other, literally.

That illusion is now gone.

Let the fight play out. Let the US have its second revolution. Let Europe either repeat the same path as it did during the rise of the Fourth Reich or finally get its act together as it did AFTER much of Europe fell, hopefully sooner.

Once the lines have been drawn, then, can and should we react.

The UN, much like its predecessor, is a chicken without teeth, ruled by the fanatical nutjobs from the Middle East. They also fund the nutjobs in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and everywhere else. Todays events are forcing oil prices up and will force the US and Europe to find other ways to see to their energy needs. Which is good. Whether it's by exploring for oil and gas in their own territory, building more nuclear facilities, exploring thorium reactors or putting more money in alternative energy, it will cut off funds from the nutjobs. Without funds, they can actually live in their Dark Ages philosophy.

And once they're living the way that they say they want, we can forget about them. Build a wall around it for all I care, to keep them inside their territory. If, however, they venture out and attack us then, we will be in a better, much healthier position to flatten them. Maybe even find we have popular support from the locals.

Now is not the time for foreign adventures. It is time to sit back, clean up our own messes and prepare for the coming Second American Revolution, European Civil War and Third World War I've been predicting for a while now.

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jordan179 June 14 2014, 15:04:11 UTC
Personally, the US and the rest of the world needs to stay out of it.

It's certainly most short-term convenient for us to stay out of it. I'm not sure exactly how we get to decide for "the rest of the world."

The US should now, step back and let the rest of the world deal with this.

We are, in point of fact doing this. And "the rest of the world" is also stepping back, save for the parts of it which are fishing in troubled waters. And that is precisely why a major war is becoming inevitable.

It is time for the US to actually work on cleaning up the mess in their own yard.

Oh, I'm sure a lot of that will take care of itself when the war starts and we can make money hand-over-first as we did from 1939-41, and perhaps keep the fighting at arm's length as we did from 1941-45 (if we're lucky again). Of course, we live now in a world with nuclear weapons, so the equivalent of the U-Boat raids off our coast may be a bit more bloody for us, but we're a big country. Most of us will survive. The heavy dying will be done by Little Brown People (or honorary Little Brown People, as is the case for the Caucasian Arabs and freakin' Aryan Persians) far from us. So I guess that's all right, eh?

Let the fight play out. Let the US have its second revolution. Let Europe either repeat the same path as it did during the rise of the Fourth Reich or finally get its act together as it did AFTER much of Europe fell, hopefully sooner.

Well, yeah. If we don't do that, the wargames won't be interesting at all. Can't get much fun out of battles we're sure to win, now can we? We need to cherry-tap this run. And if we lose, we can just re-start the game, right? It's not as if it's real ...

And once they're living the way that they say they want, we can forget about them. Build a wall around it for all I care, to keep them inside their territory. If, however, they venture out and attack us then, we will be in a better, much healthier position to flatten them. Maybe even find we have popular support from the locals.

Oh, wait ... you're responding from the timeline in which Bush's major foreign policy concern from 2001-2009 was China, aren't you? Ok. Let me explain.

In my timeline, "they" did "venture out and attack us." 9/11/2001. And ISIS was spawned by the very same organization which attacked us. So by your logic, we should "go out and flatten them" because "we might even have popular support from the locals," correct?

And if attacking two of our most important cities doesn't count as "venturing out and attacking us," then what exactly does?

How do we hermetically seal off the whole Mideast given that the rest of the Western world isn't willing to co-operate with us on this? Or that the laws of physics don't seem to be co-operating with us either, given that modern weapons can range across the entire globe?

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skarman June 14 2014, 16:11:23 UTC
In case you've missed it, in that part of the world, heavy dying as you call it, has been going on for centuries. If it isn't clan against clan, it's tribe against tribe, Sunni against Shiite against Coptic, Arab against everybody else ad infinitum. Like I wrote earlier, the only time in recent memory that things were rather calm, was under the rule of guys like Saddam, Muammar, Hosni and the Assads.

Another thing you seem to conveniently forget, is that most of these people? They don't like the West. Sure, some of them will work with us, but only because, at the time, it's the only game in town. The Iraqis have been the ones on the other end of the US and Coalition forces' guns twice in a row. The Iranians held US embassy personnel hostage for months. Palestinian terrorists LOVED shooting, throwing overboard and generally being not very nice towards US citizens, especially if they were service members or were Jewish. The Saudis love our money, toys and females but gladly finance numerous terrorist groups and hold their oil supply over our heads. The Pakistanis? They love our money, our aid, both financial, military and other types but they finance our enemies, hid Bin Laden and would love to see us under their heels.

The US are the the "Great Satan" while the United Kingdom is the "Little Satan".

And just to refresh your memory, about half of the US population, you know, the ones who voted the current Golfer-in-Chief into the White House TWICE!!!! have always been of the opinion that we should "talk" and "negotiate" with these poor, misunderstood people. Do you really see them grow a spine and start pushing for action? Do you really think they will welcome a new war, just because THU WON!!!! is the one pushing for it? I don't know what is scarier, that or Obama actually ordering troops to move in. With the way he's gutted the military, his administrations actions against them, gutting the US military leadership into a bunch of "Yes Men". It'll be a repeat of Vietnam or Lebanon in '82. ROE will be so restrictive and schizophrenic not even an army of psychiatrists will be able to untangle it. Just watch the scene in Robocop II where the load so many new directives into Robo's brain it hampers his ability to do his job.

I remember where I was on September 11. I remember watching the second aircraft fly into the WTC. I remember the bombings in Madrid and the fact that, to this day, nobody knows what became of a female colleague who was supposedly on one of the trains, on her way to work. We kicked their asses for that. Our soldiers didn't get to finish the job because the GiC didn't want them to.

We live in a world filled with followers of Neville Chamberlain. Remember him? He who appeased Hitler, an icon to many of these nutjobs in the ME. These neo-Chamberlain's will excuse anything, give up anything just as long as they can buy themselves another second. They'll #hashtag everything, attack their own family if they don't hold the same views as they themselves do. It would take another attack on the level of 9/11 or larger to even have a glimmer of hope of making them change their stance.

Sealing off your borders isn't easy but you also should not leave them wide open like the US have been doing. How hard is it to deny entry to anyone originating from certain places? How hard is it to deny any aircraft from certain places entry into your airspace? Sure, businesses wouldn't like it but if you really want to do business with someone from the Mid-East, hop a plane and go to South America and meet them there. Or, you know, use video-conferencing, email and scanners to sign documents. Better yet, don't do business with them. Starve their economies. They want a return to the Dark Ages? Fine, we'll help them. No more buying their oil and no more selling them our products.

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skarman June 14 2014, 16:11:37 UTC
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.

We've become complacent because we've not been under the threat of the gun. We have zealots, religious and political trying to enforce their will on us. The latter is the bigger threat for they are the ones willing to bend our necks towards the former. I say we deal with the latter ones first. Hopefully, before the former manage to perpetrate more 9/11 style attacks, though maybe those need to happen to open people's eyes.

Personally, I'd have turned the whole area into glass already, notwithstanding that not everybody there is part of the evil permeating that region of the world. I'm that fed up with these people. THAT is my idea of "flattening them".

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ford_prefect42 June 15 2014, 04:47:50 UTC
Disclaimer: The following is a nit. I am compelled, by mental forces beyond my control, to pick those.

"glassing" significant portions of the world is not feasible, nor was it ever. When we invaded Afghanistan, I ran some math, using the nuclear arsenal at the time, and this
http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html

I determined that the entire US arsenal would be capable of putting 1/3 of the land mass of Afghanistan within the 2PSI ring (severe damage to residential structures).

Nit ends.

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