The Price of a Crisply-Creased Pair of Pants: The Coming Decade of Genocidal War

Jan 23, 2014 07:37

In 2008, America voted a crisply-creased pair of pants into office.  The pair of pants quickly showed itself incompetent at executing the primary duty of the American Presidency:  defense and foreign policy leadership.  In 2012, America -- deciding that it really liked this pair of pants -- re-elected it into office.  We are now living with the consequences.

It's not just the diplomatic errors, the fundamentally-flawed foreign policies.  It's also Obama's deliberate drawdown of our military strength, to the point that we are approaching levels of weakness not seen since four decades ago.  Either he really believes that he improves world peace by weakening America, or he is an out-and-out traitor weakening America in the hopes that we lose the wars his fecklessness is making inevitable.  The effect is much the same in either case:  we are immobilized, and will be immobilized for the first years of the next President's first term.

From an Aggressor State point of view, this may be the best historical chance for decades.  Obama's probably going to be in the Oval Office until January 2017, and after that it will take at least a few years to begin undoing the damage he'll have done in eight years to the US military.  We've cut classes of weapons that can't be built-back rapidly, such as warships, warplanes and nuclear missiles.  So China -- and Russia, and Iran -- have a window that lasts them till around 2019-2020 or so.

Basically, the 2010's are going to be like the 1970's were, in terms of the fortunes of the Free World.  There will be death and destruction in the Third World, gloom and doom in the First World, and probably several promising Third World countries falling to enemies of one or another stripe.  In particular, the Muslims will advance in Africa, Russia in Central Asia, and China in East Asia.

Iran and/or Pakistan are likely to commit national suicide around this point, or set themselves up to commit such suicide in the 2020's.  There will probably be, by 2030, at least one medium-scale nuclear war on the Third World -- this will almost in passing put an end to fears of Global Warming, after a nuclear autumn or two gets icecap deposition back up.  This will be a shame, as the systemic problems threatening global warming won't have been cured -- unless we plan to have a medium-sized nuclear war every decade or so, which is not something I think human civilization could survive for more than a few decades.

This is the optimistic scenario.  In the pessimistic one, Russia feels frisky enough to attack Poland and Germany, or China to attack Japan and Australia.  In that one, the 2010's are more like the 1930's, and we find ourselves fighting a global war in the 2020's -- probably a strategic thermonuclear one.  And in the very pessimistic one, we lose the wars of the 2020's.

In either case, a heck of a lot of human beings are about to die to pay for Obama's crisp pants creases.

strategy, america, diplomacy, barack hussein obama, politics, military

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