The Egyptian Crisis
There is a tendency to view what is happpening in Egypt as a "democratic revolution," and therefore something which would be good should it succeeed. However, this ignores an important aspect of the situation in Eygpt, and indeed in most Muslim monarchies or dictatorships.
them for the screwed-up conditions in their own country.
The effect, however, is that the majority of people in most Mideastern Muslim countries are essentially living in a fantasy world, in which they and their brethren are the most powerful and feared people on Earth, who would rule the world were it not for being continually opposed by America, undermined by Israel, and betrayed by shadowy traitors from within. Not surprisingly, with those beliefs, the majority political hope is that the traitors be swept away and the campaign to destroy Israel and conquer the world commence forthwith.
It's true that the rule of a majority of the Western-educated people in Egypt might produce something like a liberal democracy, or at least an Egyptian approach to same. The problem is that the Islamists can use the will of the (propagandized) people, to instead install an Islamic Republic and commence the jihad.
So from our point of view, it's actually better if the (dictatorial) regime remains in power. And it's better from the (educated) Egyptian point of view, since the real outcome of jihad will probably be the deaths of most of the Egyptian people, with extreme suffering for the survivors.
Why do I say that? Well, in general it is a bad idea for any country to scream and leap at more powerful neighbors. But there are several aspects about the situation in Egypt which make it an especially bad idea for that country.
(1) The Aswan Dam - Nasser, in his great wisdom, decided to build a high dam across the Nile River at Aswan. The lake behind it holds 111 cubic kilometers of water.
Now, most of the population of Egypt lives in a rather narrow valley on the banks of the Nile. This valley is actually a canyon for a good part of its length.
In a war, the Aswan Dam would be an obvious target: it supplies much of Egypt's water and power.
What happens if someone drops the dam suddenly? Well, all of that 111 cubic-kilometer lake that happens to be above the level of the main river surges downstream, a mighty hydraulic ram, erasing everything for many, many kilometers downstream. Villages, towns, cities, people ... millions would perish. The only parts of the river that would be mostly safe would be in the Delta, where the terrain fans out, and even there the surge of water would probably do some damage.
Is a serious war likely? Well ...
(2) The Camp David Treaty - One thing which a jihadist Egyptian regime would be very likely to do would be to repudiate the Camp David Peace Accords of 1978. This would almost be de rigeur, as they recognize the State of Israel and establish a permanent peace with her (both anathema to jihadists).
The problem is that it was under the Camp David Treaty that Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt. If Egypt materially breaks or formally abrogates the treaty, Israel would be well within her rights under international law to take back the peninsula by force. While it's true that, given current global levels of anti-Semitism, this right would probably not be recognized by the UN or even the EU, the fact remains that such a war would probably be winnable by Israel.
Would such a war be likely? Well, Israel has gotten into the habit of letting other countries violate truces and treaties with her without demanding the return of her own concessions in those agreements, but it is hardly safe to assume that Israel will continue doing so, especially since much of Israel's current peacefulness was in reaction to the success of the Camp David Peace Accord. Should that break down, the game becomes more wide-open.
One must also consider the Gaza Strip. Right now, the Egyptians are preventing Hamas from supplying its own forces through Egyptian territory. But an Islamist regime would almost certainly open its border with the Gaza, making it impossible for the Israelis to maintain the blockade, and essentially using the Gaza as a deniable advance-base from which Israel could be bombarded. Such a provocation would be very likely to result in open war between Israel and Egypt.
There's also the issue of ...
(3) The Suez Canal - One of the world's most strategic waterways, Egypt is both by the treaty under which she received control of the canal and implicitly by the Camp David Accords bound to keep the Canal open to international shipping. The last time Egypt broke this agreement, in 1956, it led to the Suez War, and indirectly to the disastrous (for Egypt) wars of 1967 and 1973.
A jihadist regime would be very likely to close the Canal to Israel, and even to the shipping of nations involved in the current War on Terror. This would not only be an act of war against those nations, but a highly material one which would inflict immediate and ongoing economic damage. Consequently, it would be very likely to lead to an actual shooting war, at least a limited one aimed at wresting control of the Canal from the Egyptians.
Conclusion
So, if an Islamist regime takes control of Egypt after Mubarak, there is a very good chance that Egypt will wind up in a shooting war with Israel, and possibly America and the rest of the Western Powers.
How likely is such an outcome?
Well, right now, Mohammed ElBaradei is the likeliest successor to the Mubaraks. But ElBaradei, as a figure of the very international elite whom the Islamists hate, is not all that likely to be able to stay in power in the event of an actual violent revoluttion.
Remember Abolhassan Banisadr of Iran. He was the leader of Iran right after the 1979 Revolution, but the radicals under Khomeini quickly maneuvered him out by provoking the Hostage Crisis and riding the resultant Islamist triuphalism to supreme power. In the end, he was impeached, his closest friend executed, and he was forced to flee for his life.
ElBaradei looks to be the "Banisadr" of the Egyptian Revolution, if the risings are not put down. He will become President amidst much fanfare and Western support, only to be maneuvered out by the fanatics, probably as part of a war said fanatics provoke with various Western Powers.
And then Egypt's fate looks very dark indeed.
them for the screwed-up conditions in their own country.
The effect, however, is that the majority of people in most Mideastern Muslim countries are essentially living in a fantasy world, in which they and their brethren are the most powerful and feared people on Earth, who would rule the world were it not for being continually opposed by America, undermined by Israel, and betrayed by shadowy traitors from within. Not surprisingly, with those beliefs, the majority political hope is that the traitors be swept away and the campaign to destroy Israel and conquer the world commence forthwith.
It's true that the rule of a majority of the Western-educated people in Egypt might produce something like a liberal democracy, or at least an Egyptian approach to same. The problem is that the Islamists can use the will of the (propagandized) people, to instead install an Islamic Republic and commence the jihad.
So from our point of view, it's actually better if the (dictatorial) regime remains in power. And it's better from the (educated) Egyptian point of view, since the real outcome of jihad will probably be the deaths of most of the Egyptian people, with extreme suffering for the survivors.
Why do I say that? Well, in general it is a bad idea for any country to scream and leap at more powerful neighbors. But there are several aspects about the situation in Egypt which make it an especially bad idea for that country.
(1) The Aswan Dam - Nasser, in his great wisdom, decided to build a high dam across the Nile River at Aswan. The lake behind it holds 111 cubic kilometers of water.
Now, most of the population of Egypt lives in a rather narrow valley on the banks of the Nile. This valley is actually a canyon for a good part of its length.
In a war, the Aswan Dam would be an obvious target: it supplies much of Egypt's water and power.
What happens if someone drops the dam suddenly? Well, all of that 111 cubic-kilometer lake that happens to be above the level of the main river surges downstream, a mighty hydraulic ram, erasing everything for many, many kilometers downstream. Villages, towns, cities, people ... millions would perish. The only parts of the river that would be mostly safe would be in the Delta, where the terrain fans out, and even there the surge of water would probably do some damage.
Is a serious war likely? Well ...
(2) The Camp David Treaty - One thing which a jihadist Egyptian regime would be very likely to do would be to repudiate the Camp David Peace Accords of 1978. This would almost be de rigeur, as they recognize the State of Israel and establish a permanent peace with her (both anathema to jihadists).
The problem is that it was under the Camp David Treaty that Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt. If Egypt materially breaks or formally abrogates the treaty, Israel would be well within her rights under international law to take back the peninsula by force. While it's true that, given current global levels of anti-Semitism, this right would probably not be recognized by the UN or even the EU, the fact remains that such a war would probably be winnable by Israel.
Would such a war be likely? Well, Israel has gotten into the habit of letting other countries violate truces and treaties with her without demanding the return of her own concessions in those agreements, but it is hardly safe to assume that Israel will continue doing so, especially since much of Israel's current peacefulness was in reaction to the success of the Camp David Peace Accord. Should that break down, the game becomes more wide-open.
One must also consider the Gaza Strip. Right now, the Egyptians are preventing Hamas from supplying its own forces through Egyptian territory. But an Islamist regime would almost certainly open its border with the Gaza, making it impossible for the Israelis to maintain the blockade, and essentially using the Gaza as a deniable advance-base from which Israel could be bombarded. Such a provocation would be very likely to result in open war between Israel and Egypt.
There's also the issue of ...
(3) The Suez Canal - One of the world's most strategic waterways, Egypt is both by the treaty under which she received control of the canal and implicitly by the Camp David Accords bound to keep the Canal open to international shipping. The last time Egypt broke this agreement, in 1956, it led to the Suez War, and indirectly to the disastrous (for Egypt) wars of 1967 and 1973.
A jihadist regime would be very likely to close the Canal to Israel, and even to the shipping of nations involved in the current War on Terror. This would not only be an act of war against those nations, but a highly material one which would inflict immediate and ongoing economic damage. Consequently, it would be very likely to lead to an actual shooting war, at least a limited one aimed at wresting control of the Canal from the Egyptians.
Conclusion
So, if an Islamist regime takes control of Egypt after Mubarak, there is a very good chance that Egypt will wind up in a shooting war with Israel, and possibly America and the rest of the Western Powers.
How likely is such an outcome?
Well, right now, Mohammed ElBaradei is the likeliest successor to the Mubaraks. But ElBaradei, as a figure of the very international elite whom the Islamists hate, is not all that likely to be able to stay in power in the event of an actual violent revoluttion.
Remember Abolhassan Banisadr of Iran. He was the leader of Iran right after the 1979 Revolution, but the radicals under Khomeini quickly maneuvered him out by provoking the Hostage Crisis and riding the resultant Islamist triuphalism to supreme power. In the end, he was impeached, his closest friend executed, and he was forced to flee for his life.
ElBaradei looks to be the "Banisadr" of the Egyptian Revolution, if the risings are not put down. He will become President amidst much fanfare and Western support, only to be maneuvered out by the fanatics, probably as part of a war said fanatics provoke with various Western Powers.
And then Egypt's fate looks very dark indeed.