The Bully and His Larger Victim

[jordan179]

North Korea has begun openly bombarding a South Korean island. The motive is a demand for tribute: the implicit threat is that if the tribute is not paid that this and similar attacks will continue and escalate, and that if South Korea tries to fight back North Korea will use nuclear weapons upon them.

Comments

[melvin_udall]

Let's offer to sell Japan and South Korea nukes.

[banner]

I'm sure Japan already has them. Not so sure about South Korea.

[blackhawk101]

I believe Japan is loathe to have them re: that whole Hiroshima/Nagasaki thing. They are squeamish that our ships dock in Japan with nukes on them. Also there is no evidence that Japan has even started a scintilla of a nuke program- they are a fairly free society and such an endeavor would leak out PDQ

[jordan179]

That's my point -- the Japanese are restrained from building nuclear weaposn by primarily superstitious rather than technological factors. Give them a good reason to abandon such superstitions -- such as the Chinese launching a naval war against their commerce -- and the Japanese could deploy a credible nuclear arsenal with considerable rapidity.

I would not at all be surprised to discover that the Japanese have already built but not completed the assembly of at least a few nuclear weapons: unlike the North Korean ones, these would be cutting-edge designs and ready to mate to missiles.

[banner]

Whatever Obama does, it will be the wrong thing, because so far he has always done the wrong thing

[jordan179]

Oh yes, almost forgot -- one of the automatic consequences of such a Chinese attack on South Korea would be that, within a week to a few months, both South Korea and Japan would be nuclear Powers; within a few years they'd have nuclear arsenals dwarfing China's, assuming that they weren't both conquered. Yet another reason why this would be a really dumb Chinese strategy!

[melvin_udall]

I don't think China will attack anything for a few more years yet.

If they did, and it involved SK, there wouldn't be anything left to arm.

I'm saying we should publicly offer them now. China will suddenly become remarkably interested and willing to strongarm NK without any sale taking place.

What would never happen but I'd prefer would be would be to pull our troops and sell both SK and Japan nukes.

[jordan179]

What would never happen but I'd prefer would be would be to pull our troops and sell both SK and Japan nukes.

One of our long-term strategic doctrinal errors has been that we view the nuclear problem as "proliferation" rather than "proliferation amongst our ENEMIES." This mistake dates back to the old Cold War liberal "mirroring" (where enemy capabilities and intentions were assumed identical to ours) and is exacerbated by our superstitious fear of nuclear weapons. In consequence, we have deliberately avoided the nuclear armament of allied Powers such as Germany, Japan and South Korea, even though such armament would significantly ease our strategic position. In particular, North Korea would not be able to credibly challenge an atomic-armed South Korea, let alone Japan.

[melvin_udall]

Absolutely agreed.

We continue this "lead by example" BS that does nothing but encourage our enemies and allow them to grow more powerful. Arm via sale or airdrop the folks we like then tell the world to handle its own crap. Strengthen our intelligence agencies and just whack individual problems.

Of course, I say that but I'd probably have a monument built of a missile with this printed on it:
_____
21° 25′ 0″ N, 39° 49′ 0″ E
As-Salāmu `Alaykum
_____
Nah, just kidding.