BackgroundAs I'm sure everyone knows by now, Barack Obama has ordered the abandonment of the American Constellation rocket program, whose principal aim was the American return to the Moon (
http://www.space.com/news/obama-nasa-space-plan-reactions-100128
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You're assuming that spacecraft remain as relatively fragile and vulnerable as they are today, which would require a complete lack of progress in both hull materials and active defenses against micrometeors. I would be astonished if both conditions persisted a mere century.
When the resources returned exceed resources invested, when technologies bring profitable payoff, space travel will get flooded with commercialism just like everywhere else. In the mean time, until the energy efficiencies are there, it's a pretty lousy taxpayer boondoggle.
The problem is that, when that point is reached, if someone else has already gained control of the Moon, then that Power will reap the rewards, because they will have the infrastructure already in place. That this point will be reached is fairly predictable -- if we had deuterium-trihelium reactors, trihelium would already be cost-effective to mine from Lunar sources, and our astronautical technologies are bound to improve, reducing shipping costs.
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