Dear Honduras - Kill Zelaya Already!
The following from Morgan Lee, "Ousted Honduran President steps into homeland" (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090724/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_honduras_coup)
Yes, Zelaya actually committed the incredibly stupid act of forcing his way onto Honduran territory -- and Honduras committed the possibly-stupider act of not killing or capturing him on the spot.
He stopped a few steps into Honduran territory, however, saying he was negotiating with military officials to let him be reunited with his family in Honduras.
"I've spoken to the colonel and he told me I could not cross the border," Zelaya said. "I told him I could cross."
Zelaya said he was trying to get in touch with more senior military commanders.
In other words, Zelaya just admitted that he was trying to start a Honduran civil war -- an act that, if successful, would have killed hundreds to thousands of his fellow Hondurans.
He only walked a few steps into Honduran territory, to be true. And then he walked right back out of Honduran territory. But for that brief moment, Honduras had the right under international law to shoot him -- and didn't.
That government has insisted it will arrest Zelaya once he returns, ignoring threats of sanctions from nations worldwide if he is not reinstated.
Soldiers formed a human chain near the border crossing but made no immediate move to approach Zelaya as he stood speaking on a mobile phone.
In a statement, the interim government said it still believed in negotiations. Its deputy foreign minister, Marta Alvarado, accused Zelaya of seeking "subversion and a bloodbath."
As indeed Zelaya does. But Micheletti and Vasquez in my opinion have made a crucial error by not acting on his threat. Zelaya should have been arrested the instant he stepped onto Honduran territory, if possible, and killed if not stopped. An obvious way would have been to order him to "Freeze or we'll shoot" once he was within Honduran territory -- then, if he bolted for the border, to take him down with a sniper.
Killing Zelaya would resolve the crisis, for one crucial reason. Zelaya's rebellion is purely personal -- it is purely about Zelaya's megalomaniacal belief that his own rights as an elected President supersede the interests of his Party, his Constitution, and his country. Zelaya's movement is ephermal and personal -- if he were shot dead on Honduran territory, the trannies would whine about it for a week or so, and then Britney would get a new hairdo or Michael Jackson be reported still dead or whatever, and it would be old news. There'd be no obvious successor, November would come and the Honduran elections, then January and the inauguration, and it would be over.
By contrast, Micheletti and Vasquez enjoy institutional support. Micheletti will step down from the Honduran Presidency in January, perhaps returning to Congress; Vasquez continue his military career until whenever he retires, with legitimate successors generated by the Honduran constitutional system.
Zelaya has only a short time to act, and because of this must take risks, and because of the personal nature of his faction, these risks could prove fatal to himself or his cause. But they can only prove fatal if Micheletti and Vasquez stop focusing on the mock-outrage of those foreign forces who clearly don't give a damn about Honduras anyway, and act to take advantage of Zelaya's vulnerability.
I fear that we've just seen a Kerensky-and-Lenin moment here -- and Kerensky just blinked. I hope that history is kinder to Honduras than it was to Russia after that error.
Yes, Zelaya actually committed the incredibly stupid act of forcing his way onto Honduran territory -- and Honduras committed the possibly-stupider act of not killing or capturing him on the spot.
He stopped a few steps into Honduran territory, however, saying he was negotiating with military officials to let him be reunited with his family in Honduras.
"I've spoken to the colonel and he told me I could not cross the border," Zelaya said. "I told him I could cross."
Zelaya said he was trying to get in touch with more senior military commanders.
In other words, Zelaya just admitted that he was trying to start a Honduran civil war -- an act that, if successful, would have killed hundreds to thousands of his fellow Hondurans.
He only walked a few steps into Honduran territory, to be true. And then he walked right back out of Honduran territory. But for that brief moment, Honduras had the right under international law to shoot him -- and didn't.
That government has insisted it will arrest Zelaya once he returns, ignoring threats of sanctions from nations worldwide if he is not reinstated.
Soldiers formed a human chain near the border crossing but made no immediate move to approach Zelaya as he stood speaking on a mobile phone.
In a statement, the interim government said it still believed in negotiations. Its deputy foreign minister, Marta Alvarado, accused Zelaya of seeking "subversion and a bloodbath."
As indeed Zelaya does. But Micheletti and Vasquez in my opinion have made a crucial error by not acting on his threat. Zelaya should have been arrested the instant he stepped onto Honduran territory, if possible, and killed if not stopped. An obvious way would have been to order him to "Freeze or we'll shoot" once he was within Honduran territory -- then, if he bolted for the border, to take him down with a sniper.
Killing Zelaya would resolve the crisis, for one crucial reason. Zelaya's rebellion is purely personal -- it is purely about Zelaya's megalomaniacal belief that his own rights as an elected President supersede the interests of his Party, his Constitution, and his country. Zelaya's movement is ephermal and personal -- if he were shot dead on Honduran territory, the trannies would whine about it for a week or so, and then Britney would get a new hairdo or Michael Jackson be reported still dead or whatever, and it would be old news. There'd be no obvious successor, November would come and the Honduran elections, then January and the inauguration, and it would be over.
By contrast, Micheletti and Vasquez enjoy institutional support. Micheletti will step down from the Honduran Presidency in January, perhaps returning to Congress; Vasquez continue his military career until whenever he retires, with legitimate successors generated by the Honduran constitutional system.
Zelaya has only a short time to act, and because of this must take risks, and because of the personal nature of his faction, these risks could prove fatal to himself or his cause. But they can only prove fatal if Micheletti and Vasquez stop focusing on the mock-outrage of those foreign forces who clearly don't give a damn about Honduras anyway, and act to take advantage of Zelaya's vulnerability.
I fear that we've just seen a Kerensky-and-Lenin moment here -- and Kerensky just blinked. I hope that history is kinder to Honduras than it was to Russia after that error.