I've been thinking a lot lately about the Richard Nixon entry I promised to make, but seriously, it is too bleak and ugly (and not done yet) so now for something completely different.
Being one who likes to quantify things, this is not a 'Great Recession." It was a lot worse in 1977-80. Problem is that we have a 24/7 media telling us how bad things are.
I disagree big guy. It is too early to quantify as if the event is more than partially done. Besides, you live in NYC, an international gateway somewhat insulated from "this time" issues. In the heartland, with 10%+ unemployment, mass empty storefronts and housing, banks unwilling to lend and small businesses closely daily, it is clear to see we aren't done yet.
Actually, things are pretty tough in Manhattan right now. In fact, I went by one of my favorite restaurants on Madison, to find it closed. I would speculate that Manhattan is experiencing a net decrease in population right now. There's a lot of empty storefronts on Madison and even 5th ave. I know in my hometown in Florida, things have picked up considerably, except for construction. The county has reported a huge increase in sales tax, which indicates more business activity. Still, it is a buyers market out there and I'm in the process of getting a coop at the Carlyle for 40% of what it sold for 5 years ago.
They are pretty tough in Manhattan, and you are insulated (imo) so it should be easy enough to see they might be even tougher where foreigners don't visit (and spend and tour, purchasing property, etc.). Down more than half in 5 years sounds like a nice solid deflation to me. Congrats!
Yeah, but the coop board is like the gestapo. They want to know everything and I even needed to hire a lawyer to get all my ducks in a row even before I met with the board. Now, they're delaying my decision until after the holidays as the board is all on vacation and can't get a quorum. i'm virtually assured approval, and I won't mind living at 76th between 5th and Madison. however, the digs are pretty old and need a bit of updating. Jeff
Worse in what capacity? (I'm asking, I don't mean to sound snarky.) We had more production in the country at the time, and the way that unemployment numbers and inflation both are calculated have been changed since then.
Define production,and please cite the source. The unemployment numbers today are less accurate than in 1977, and the inflation numbers were more accurate then also. We still have more industrial production than China, despite what the pundits would have you believe. Much loss of manufacturing jobs is due to increase in efficiency and productivity, despite the off shoring. I lived in the 70's, and was actively in business then, and not trying to sound snarky, you were only 7 in 1977 and everything you know about that period comes from a book or anecdotal conversation. Again, I don't wish to start a flame war, but at least we don't have gas lines which prove that free markets work.
Sorry, I was tough on the lad and my apologies. I've been in a long March KCBOT Wheat/short Chicago spread that has veen giving me fits. I have 1% of the open interest in the March KCBOT contract, and I'm getting squeezed. Still, when Chicago trades premium to KC or MGEX, that's money in the bank if you ho9ld on. Right now, I'm only 2 cents in the hole where a week ago, I was 14 cents in the hole. Luckily, I had the blowup in Dubai and made a little cash. No bragging, but I sold the high on the ES and covered it within 4 ticks of the low. I had the equivalent of 25 bigs on, so at least I sometimes do something right. My game has been so off for the last two months it's unbelievable. The only thing I've been doing right is selling options.
Again, sorry for beating up on the kid and mucking up your blog.
No problem. Life has some muck, or it isn't life. That money in the bank thing reminds me of when (1980s) option traders would sell 5 point boxes higher than 5 points. Money in the bank. Until the Conoco deal (with a 2 part, back end stub), and those 5 point boxes went to 11 points. Incidents like that taught me there is no such thing as money in the bank every time, not even a bank (anymore). Your bank is better than that, but black swans come from nowhere...
I don't really follow short term markets anymore, but in the longer term, we are at/near the SP recovery top. You didn't buy the low, you bought a trader's low. Tell me you sold this high and bought it back next year below this year's low, then you would be bragging. You were just telling a story....
I had the range for the day. I think I could count on one hand the number of times I've done that since 1977. Blind ass luck. I have to follow the short term, as I have a need to grind, and grind. The only thing I do long term is my big spreads I put on, and my long term is 3 months. That's why I missed the gold move because I never saw an edge. When we have catalytic events that are bearish(like Dubai), I go into auto pilot, and do certain things for my defensive game
Long term thinking is much better on the health, every way you look at it, I think.
Hey, as a totally unrelated reply, I think I just found you on facebook with no more information than is in these entries right here. I am curious, does that bother you, since I see your facebook front (assuming that is you) is darn secretive? (It wouldn't let me send a message or friend thingy or anything.) Just curious...
Additionally, and assuming that is you I found, I see you are Randian. Good control back there not getting too caught up in the objectivist/subjectivist debate.
you can add me on FB at watsurfatcomcastdotnet. I will add you back. If that doesn't work, send me an e-mail and I will add you from my end. I'm very protective of my FB as I have a few high profile friends who wish to keep things on the DL
Production as in manufacturing and agriculture. My source is, yes, a book: the annual editions of The Statistical Abstract of the United States, which in turn gets much of its relevant statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I don't consider any of that anecdotal.
>>We still have more industrial production than China, despite what the pundits would have you believe.<<
I was talking strictly about the U.S., not China. I also tend not to listen to pundits because I find too many of them, on all sides, feeding me wrong information.
>>you were only 7 in 1977 and everything you know about that period comes from a book or anecdotal conversation.... )
Reply
Reply
Reply
Down more than half in 5 years sounds like a nice solid deflation to me.
Congrats!
Reply
Jeff
Reply
Reply
Reply
Reply
Again, sorry for beating up on the kid and mucking up your blog.
Jeff
Reply
That money in the bank thing reminds me of when (1980s) option traders would sell 5 point boxes higher than 5 points. Money in the bank. Until the Conoco deal (with a 2 part, back end stub), and those 5 point boxes went to 11 points. Incidents like that taught me there is no such thing as money in the bank every time, not even a bank (anymore). Your bank is better than that, but black swans come from nowhere...
I don't really follow short term markets anymore, but in the longer term, we are at/near the SP recovery top. You didn't buy the low, you bought a trader's low. Tell me you sold this high and bought it back next year below this year's low, then you would be bragging. You were just telling a story....
Good Luck!
Jonathan
Reply
Reply
Hey, as a totally unrelated reply, I think I just found you on facebook with no more information than is in these entries right here. I am curious, does that bother you, since I see your facebook front (assuming that is you) is darn secretive? (It wouldn't let me send a message or friend thingy or anything.)
Just curious...
Additionally, and assuming that is you I found, I see you are Randian. Good control back there not getting too caught up in the objectivist/subjectivist debate.
Reply
Jeff
Reply
Production as in manufacturing and agriculture. My source is, yes, a book: the annual editions of The Statistical Abstract of the United States, which in turn gets much of its relevant statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I don't consider any of that anecdotal.
>>We still have more industrial production than China, despite what the pundits would have you believe.<<
I was talking strictly about the U.S., not China. I also tend not to listen to pundits because I find too many of them, on all sides, feeding me wrong information.
>>you were only 7 in 1977 and everything you know about that period comes from a book or anecdotal conversation.
Reply
Sorry.
Jeff
Reply
Reply
Leave a comment