On Hope
In response to GearJock's post on the fallacy of wishing...
"Don't wish, don't start,
wishing only wounds the heart."
-Glinda/Elphaba, Wicked
I'm reminded of a study I read about some months ago that discussed the probable causes of massive cost overruns on public works projects. Every time a major new road or stadium or such is built, they almost always end up costing far more than they were originally quoted, regardless of schedule or economic environment. They study reached a (perhaps not so) shocking conclusion: people lie. Public officials purposefully lowball the estimates to gain public support, knowing the end cost will be-on average-50 to 100% more.
The other, just as interesting, conclusion of the report was in the analysis of why the intentional lowballing occurs. In fact, some of it was due to corruption, and some due to inflexible commitment. But, in the end, the biggest reason was that these projects simply had to happen, and if people knew the real cost up front, they wouldn't. In short, local politicians often lie to us for our own good, at least when spending on infrastructure is concerned.
My point? Only that hope is the lie that drives us forward. I look back on the first and only time I experienced a massive weight loss, about 100 pounds. I wonder how I did it now, and why I find it so hard to make even a smaller loss afterwards. The truth: I know what I'm getting into. I know how hard and annoying it'll be, so I can't commit to the full-on effort it requires. Hope and blind optimism is often the only mechanism that can push us far enough into a serious improvement campaign (self or otherwise) that by the time we realize what a massive pain in the ass it is, we find ourselves on the other side and close enough to the end that resolve and desperation can take us the rest of the way. Experience is often the hope-ender.
Wishing is the little brother of hope, the first step if you will. It's important and useful, but also a valuable check. We can't hold out real hope for everything we want to do in our lives, for crushed and lost hope is too devastating. So we save up our hope for those challenges we have the time or energy or money to undertake, and leave the other impossible tasks to the amusements of wishing.
"Don't wish, don't start,
wishing only wounds the heart."
-Glinda/Elphaba, Wicked
I'm reminded of a study I read about some months ago that discussed the probable causes of massive cost overruns on public works projects. Every time a major new road or stadium or such is built, they almost always end up costing far more than they were originally quoted, regardless of schedule or economic environment. They study reached a (perhaps not so) shocking conclusion: people lie. Public officials purposefully lowball the estimates to gain public support, knowing the end cost will be-on average-50 to 100% more.
The other, just as interesting, conclusion of the report was in the analysis of why the intentional lowballing occurs. In fact, some of it was due to corruption, and some due to inflexible commitment. But, in the end, the biggest reason was that these projects simply had to happen, and if people knew the real cost up front, they wouldn't. In short, local politicians often lie to us for our own good, at least when spending on infrastructure is concerned.
My point? Only that hope is the lie that drives us forward. I look back on the first and only time I experienced a massive weight loss, about 100 pounds. I wonder how I did it now, and why I find it so hard to make even a smaller loss afterwards. The truth: I know what I'm getting into. I know how hard and annoying it'll be, so I can't commit to the full-on effort it requires. Hope and blind optimism is often the only mechanism that can push us far enough into a serious improvement campaign (self or otherwise) that by the time we realize what a massive pain in the ass it is, we find ourselves on the other side and close enough to the end that resolve and desperation can take us the rest of the way. Experience is often the hope-ender.
Wishing is the little brother of hope, the first step if you will. It's important and useful, but also a valuable check. We can't hold out real hope for everything we want to do in our lives, for crushed and lost hope is too devastating. So we save up our hope for those challenges we have the time or energy or money to undertake, and leave the other impossible tasks to the amusements of wishing.