Senate preference flows
I generally vote for independents and minor parties, below the line, in the Senate. It keeps things interesting.
There are always a lot of people I've never heard of. Who the hell is Glenn Shea, for example. For some of them, the only political thing I know about them is what they say on their Web site and who they gave their preferences to. Preferences speak louder than Web sites, so here is my analysis of the 2010 Victorian Senate preferences flow,
There are 60 candidates contesting for six seats. So giving someone any of your first six preferences says "I'm really hoping you get a seat". Listing them 56 - 60 says "I really hate you and don't want you to play in the Senate".
Some people ran multiple tickets. If you vote for them above the line, I think your vote has equal chance to go one way or the other. So a vote above the line for Stephen Mayne has equal chance of giving preferences to Family First or the Greens.
I looked at the preferences given to the first candidate in each group and assumed that the rest of the candidates flow the same way. This held true for everybody except for the Shooters Party, who gave their preferences to individuals, rather than groups, and one or two others.
Any numbers in brackets indicate what preference that group was given.
Socialist Equity Party
Over three tickets, gave their preferences to the Liberals, the Greens and Labor, so you have 1 in 3 chance that your vote will go to one of those groups.
Nobody wants Patrick or Keo to get seats (except Patrick and Keo, of course).
The Liberal Democrats (59 & 60) really don't want them to get seats.
Toscano, Warfe and Sadauskas
Gave their preferences to the Greens.
The Socialist Alliance want Toscano et al (4 - 6) to get seats.
The Greens (12 - 14) and the Citizens Electoral Lobby (12 - 14) like them.
Nobody really hates them.
Family First
Gave their preference to the Christian Democrats
Aside from Family First, the Citizens Electoral Lobby (3), the Climate Sceptics (3), Mayne and Piccinini (3), the Shooters and Fishers (4), Liberals Nationals (5) and Christian Democratic Party (6) want Family First to win seats.
Only the Socialist Equity Party (56), the Australian Sex Party (60-) and Toscano et al (60-) really don't want them to get in.
Greens
Fielded six candidates, so didn't really give meaningful preferences to anyone. The Australian Democrats got their 7 & 8 preferences.
Aside from the Greens, Mayne and Piccinini (3), the Socialist Equity Party (3), Toscano et al (4) and the Australian Labor Party (6) want them to get seats.
Only the Shooters and Fishers really want to keep them out.
Senator on-line
Gave their preferences to the Democrats and the Carers Alliance.
Aside from..., only the Liberal Democrats (6) want them to get seats.
Nobody else rated them below 38, which is extraordinary.
DLP
Gave their preferences to the Christian Democrats and Shooters and Fishers.
Building Australia (3), Christian Democrats (3), One Nation (3), and the Shooters and Fishers (4) want the DLP to get seats.
Nobody really wants to keep them out.
Democrats
Gave preferences to the Carers Alliance and the Secular Party of Australia.
The Secular Party (3), Senator On-line (3), Carers Alliance (5) and the Australian Sex Party (6) want them to get seats.
Nobody else rated them below 48.
Shooters and Fishers
Gave their preferences to a Liberal, Steve Fielding (Family First), a DLP candidate and Stephen Conroy (Labor)
The DLP (6) want them to get seats.
Nobody listed them lower than 47.
Australian Sex Party
Gave preferences to the Secular Party and the Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats (3) and the Secular Party of Australia (5) want them to get seats.
Building Australia (56), the DLP (56) and the Christian Democrats (58) don't want them to get in.
Climate Skeptics
Gave preferences to Family First.
One Nation (6) want them to get in.
The Australian Greens (57) don't.
Socialist Alliance
Gave preferences to Toscano et al.
Nobody wants them to get seats.
Liberal Democrats (56) don't want them to get seats.
Citizens Electoral Lobby
Gave preferences to Family First.
Nobody wants them to get seats.
Australian Democrats (57), Australian Labor Party (57), Mayne and Piccinini (57), Socialist Alliance (57), Australian Greens (59), Building Australia (59) and Liberal Nationals (59) all want to keep them out. Everybody hates these guys!
Building Australia
Gave preferences to DLP, LDP and the Carers Alliance.
Nobody wants them to get a seat.
The Socialist Equity Party (57) wants to keep them out.
One Nation
Gave preferences to DLP and Climate Sceptics.
Nobody wants to give them a seat.
Everybody hates them, too. Liberals + Nationals (57), Australian Democrats (59), Australian Labor Party (59), Mayne + Piccinini (59), Socialist Alliance and Socialist Equity Party all want to stop them getting seats.
Liberal + Nationals
Gave preferences to Family First.
Socialist Equity Party want them to get seats.
Nobody really wants to keep them out.
Christian Democrats
Gave preferences to DLP and Steve Fielding (Family First)
The DLP and Family First want them to get seats.
The Secular Party of Australia and the Socialist Equity Party don't.
Labor Party
Gave a preference to the Greens.
Socialist Equity Party want them to get seats.
Nobody really wants to keep them out.
Secular Party of Australia
Preferences to Australian Democrats and the Australian Sex Party.
The Australian Sex Party and the Australian Democrats want them to get seats.
Carers Alliance and the DLP want to keep them out.
Carers Alliance
Preferences to Mayne and Piccinini and the Democrats on both tickets.
Australian Democrats, Building Australia and Senator On-line want them to get seats.
Nobody really hates them. Their lowest score is 45.
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
Preferences to Sex Party and Senator On-line.
Building Australia want them to get seats.
The Carers Alliance really don't.
Mayne and Piccinini
Gave preferences to Family First on one ticket and the Greens on the other.
The Carers Alliance really cares for them.
Nobody really wants to keep them out.
Ungrouped: Grant Beale
Nobody wants Grant to get a seat.
The Carers Alliance really don't want him to get a seat.
Grant doesn't get to give preferences to anyone.
Ungrouped: Glenn Shea
Nobody wants Glenn to get a seat.
The Carers Alliance really don't want him to get a seat.
Glenn doesn't get to give preferences to anyone.
There are always a lot of people I've never heard of. Who the hell is Glenn Shea, for example. For some of them, the only political thing I know about them is what they say on their Web site and who they gave their preferences to. Preferences speak louder than Web sites, so here is my analysis of the 2010 Victorian Senate preferences flow,
There are 60 candidates contesting for six seats. So giving someone any of your first six preferences says "I'm really hoping you get a seat". Listing them 56 - 60 says "I really hate you and don't want you to play in the Senate".
Some people ran multiple tickets. If you vote for them above the line, I think your vote has equal chance to go one way or the other. So a vote above the line for Stephen Mayne has equal chance of giving preferences to Family First or the Greens.
I looked at the preferences given to the first candidate in each group and assumed that the rest of the candidates flow the same way. This held true for everybody except for the Shooters Party, who gave their preferences to individuals, rather than groups, and one or two others.
Any numbers in brackets indicate what preference that group was given.
Socialist Equity Party
Over three tickets, gave their preferences to the Liberals, the Greens and Labor, so you have 1 in 3 chance that your vote will go to one of those groups.
Nobody wants Patrick or Keo to get seats (except Patrick and Keo, of course).
The Liberal Democrats (59 & 60) really don't want them to get seats.
Toscano, Warfe and Sadauskas
Gave their preferences to the Greens.
The Socialist Alliance want Toscano et al (4 - 6) to get seats.
The Greens (12 - 14) and the Citizens Electoral Lobby (12 - 14) like them.
Nobody really hates them.
Family First
Gave their preference to the Christian Democrats
Aside from Family First, the Citizens Electoral Lobby (3), the Climate Sceptics (3), Mayne and Piccinini (3), the Shooters and Fishers (4), Liberals Nationals (5) and Christian Democratic Party (6) want Family First to win seats.
Only the Socialist Equity Party (56), the Australian Sex Party (60-) and Toscano et al (60-) really don't want them to get in.
Greens
Fielded six candidates, so didn't really give meaningful preferences to anyone. The Australian Democrats got their 7 & 8 preferences.
Aside from the Greens, Mayne and Piccinini (3), the Socialist Equity Party (3), Toscano et al (4) and the Australian Labor Party (6) want them to get seats.
Only the Shooters and Fishers really want to keep them out.
Senator on-line
Gave their preferences to the Democrats and the Carers Alliance.
Aside from..., only the Liberal Democrats (6) want them to get seats.
Nobody else rated them below 38, which is extraordinary.
DLP
Gave their preferences to the Christian Democrats and Shooters and Fishers.
Building Australia (3), Christian Democrats (3), One Nation (3), and the Shooters and Fishers (4) want the DLP to get seats.
Nobody really wants to keep them out.
Democrats
Gave preferences to the Carers Alliance and the Secular Party of Australia.
The Secular Party (3), Senator On-line (3), Carers Alliance (5) and the Australian Sex Party (6) want them to get seats.
Nobody else rated them below 48.
Shooters and Fishers
Gave their preferences to a Liberal, Steve Fielding (Family First), a DLP candidate and Stephen Conroy (Labor)
The DLP (6) want them to get seats.
Nobody listed them lower than 47.
Australian Sex Party
Gave preferences to the Secular Party and the Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats (3) and the Secular Party of Australia (5) want them to get seats.
Building Australia (56), the DLP (56) and the Christian Democrats (58) don't want them to get in.
Climate Skeptics
Gave preferences to Family First.
One Nation (6) want them to get in.
The Australian Greens (57) don't.
Socialist Alliance
Gave preferences to Toscano et al.
Nobody wants them to get seats.
Liberal Democrats (56) don't want them to get seats.
Citizens Electoral Lobby
Gave preferences to Family First.
Nobody wants them to get seats.
Australian Democrats (57), Australian Labor Party (57), Mayne and Piccinini (57), Socialist Alliance (57), Australian Greens (59), Building Australia (59) and Liberal Nationals (59) all want to keep them out. Everybody hates these guys!
Building Australia
Gave preferences to DLP, LDP and the Carers Alliance.
Nobody wants them to get a seat.
The Socialist Equity Party (57) wants to keep them out.
One Nation
Gave preferences to DLP and Climate Sceptics.
Nobody wants to give them a seat.
Everybody hates them, too. Liberals + Nationals (57), Australian Democrats (59), Australian Labor Party (59), Mayne + Piccinini (59), Socialist Alliance and Socialist Equity Party all want to stop them getting seats.
Liberal + Nationals
Gave preferences to Family First.
Socialist Equity Party want them to get seats.
Nobody really wants to keep them out.
Christian Democrats
Gave preferences to DLP and Steve Fielding (Family First)
The DLP and Family First want them to get seats.
The Secular Party of Australia and the Socialist Equity Party don't.
Labor Party
Gave a preference to the Greens.
Socialist Equity Party want them to get seats.
Nobody really wants to keep them out.
Secular Party of Australia
Preferences to Australian Democrats and the Australian Sex Party.
The Australian Sex Party and the Australian Democrats want them to get seats.
Carers Alliance and the DLP want to keep them out.
Carers Alliance
Preferences to Mayne and Piccinini and the Democrats on both tickets.
Australian Democrats, Building Australia and Senator On-line want them to get seats.
Nobody really hates them. Their lowest score is 45.
Liberal Democrats (LDP)
Preferences to Sex Party and Senator On-line.
Building Australia want them to get seats.
The Carers Alliance really don't.
Mayne and Piccinini
Gave preferences to Family First on one ticket and the Greens on the other.
The Carers Alliance really cares for them.
Nobody really wants to keep them out.
Ungrouped: Grant Beale
Nobody wants Grant to get a seat.
The Carers Alliance really don't want him to get a seat.
Grant doesn't get to give preferences to anyone.
Ungrouped: Glenn Shea
Nobody wants Glenn to get a seat.
The Carers Alliance really don't want him to get a seat.
Glenn doesn't get to give preferences to anyone.