Presidential Election Checklist, the short Version
Before the weekend is out, I'll post the long version of the checklist along with my updated Senate checklist (which I've already completed, just haven't posted yet). But for now, I'll give you part 1 (the short version) of the presidential checklist.
It consists of two questions.
Q1: It's 7:05 ET. Has Virgina been called for Obama. If yes, go to Q2. If no, go to long version.
Q2: It's now 8:05 ET. Has Pennsylvania been called for Obama. If no, go to long version. If yes, well, the rest of the country is moot and Obama is the President.
(For those that haven't really been following along, note that there are other plausible paths for Obama to win by if either of those states don't end up panning out (hence the long version) - although losing both would be a not very good thing (IMO) as it would require relying on the current 'toss up' states. There's just not really any plausible path for McCain if this happens. He doesn't have the numbers in enough states to make up the difference here with the other states that are currently projected to go to Obama in high numbers.)
ETA: Oh, and to avoid unduly alarming people (or inviting the inevitable comments of fatalism that we seem to be unable to shake), VA is currently projected for Obama at 96% of fivethirtyeight.com and PA is currently projected for Obama at 99%. CNN, which is notoriously a lot more conservative (not in the political sense of the word) about moving states out of toss-up range have projected both of them for Obama. Real Clear Politics, which is another poll blogging site, except one that's supposed to have a Republican lean when it comes to analyzing polls has ALSO projected both of them for Obama. Obviously, projections aren't what matters, which is why we watch on Tuesday. But, um, yeah. This is NOT the same situation that things were at in 2004 or 2000. There have not been this much discrepancy in the numbers between the two candidates at this stage in the game since 1996 and before then 1984, both years that ended up being landslides. Don't assume this is the same as last time until you see it. Seriously.
It consists of two questions.
Q1: It's 7:05 ET. Has Virgina been called for Obama. If yes, go to Q2. If no, go to long version.
Q2: It's now 8:05 ET. Has Pennsylvania been called for Obama. If no, go to long version. If yes, well, the rest of the country is moot and Obama is the President.
(For those that haven't really been following along, note that there are other plausible paths for Obama to win by if either of those states don't end up panning out (hence the long version) - although losing both would be a not very good thing (IMO) as it would require relying on the current 'toss up' states. There's just not really any plausible path for McCain if this happens. He doesn't have the numbers in enough states to make up the difference here with the other states that are currently projected to go to Obama in high numbers.)
ETA: Oh, and to avoid unduly alarming people (or inviting the inevitable comments of fatalism that we seem to be unable to shake), VA is currently projected for Obama at 96% of fivethirtyeight.com and PA is currently projected for Obama at 99%. CNN, which is notoriously a lot more conservative (not in the political sense of the word) about moving states out of toss-up range have projected both of them for Obama. Real Clear Politics, which is another poll blogging site, except one that's supposed to have a Republican lean when it comes to analyzing polls has ALSO projected both of them for Obama. Obviously, projections aren't what matters, which is why we watch on Tuesday. But, um, yeah. This is NOT the same situation that things were at in 2004 or 2000. There have not been this much discrepancy in the numbers between the two candidates at this stage in the game since 1996 and before then 1984, both years that ended up being landslides. Don't assume this is the same as last time until you see it. Seriously.