Breeders Cup 2012 - Day 2
Day 2 of the Breeders Cup dawns cold and dreary in Ontario, but sunny and warm at Santa Anita Park in Los Angeles. How I wish I was there!
1) BC Juvenile Turf G1 - 1 mile on the turf for 2 yr old colts & geldings. Purse $1 million.
My pick: Artiago $5 to win - too many options so I'm just going for a long shot here. I figure the Euros are good enough to win but look pretty evenly matched, so looking for some decent odds.
And away they go! (2:52 PM EST)
Lots of traffic problems in a very large field on a very tight course. Euro George Vancouver surprised me by racing near the lead, keeping out of the traffic jam. He then exploded free at the top of the stretch and won with authority. Why did I choose Artiago instead of him? Darn - could have got 9-1 on a horse with absolutely impecable breeding, trained by the alway dangerous Aidan O'Brien. Right thought, wrong pick
Running total: - $5 for the day. -$43.50 overall
2) BC F&M Sprint G1 - 7 furlong for fillies and mares, 3 yr & up. Purse $1 million.
My Pick: Switch $5 to place
Groupie Doll is the clear class of the field, winner of 4 straight with some monster speed numbers. But she's odds-on in a field containing a lot of really good horses, so I'm going for longshot Switch, who I've liked ever since she gave Zenyatta a real tussle in the Lady's Secret (now renamed the Zenyatta) two years back.
And they're off! (3:37 PM EST)
Groupie Doll looked for the lead early but was content to rate when a couple of long shots gunned past her. At the top of the stretch, Dust and Diamonds took the lead but Groupie Doll exploded past her to a commanding victory. Absolutely no doubt about who is this year's champion distaff sprinter.
And the moral of the story is: don't second guess yourself, and don't bet on sentiment (even though Switch did finish third so hardly embarrassed herself).
Running total: - $10 for the day. -$48.50 overall
3) BC Dirt Mile G1 - 1 mile for 3 yr old & up. Purse $1 million.
My pick: Shackleford - $5 to place
A fairly weak field by Breeders Cup standards since the best horses head for the larger purses in either the Sprint, (Turf) Mile or Classic. Shackleford is the mild morning line favorite based on his earlier performance in the G1 Metropolitan Mile (incidentally, considered the most important race for establishing a stallion prospect - don't expect to see Shackleford back on the track next year.)
And away they go! (4:15 PM EST)
Shackleford bobbled at the start and essentially lost all chance. *sigh* Tapizar (15-1) got a good trip in stalking position and took over at the head of the stretch when the pacesetters tired. Rail Trip tried to make a run but never threatened the winner.
Running total: - $15 for the day. -$53.50 overall
4) BC Turf Sprint G1 - 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf for 3 yr old & up. Purse $1 million.
My pick: California Flag - $5 to show
The Turf Sprint takes place on a unique downhill course that is known as a course for certain horses (ie, horses either like it and win repeatedly, or hate it and never get into gear). California Flag has had a long layoff but must be kept in mind based on a previous victory in this race when last held at Santa Anita. Hoping to make back a little of the money I've lost today.
And they're off! (5:01 PM EST)
Wow, got this wrong although my reasoning was right. The eventual winner was based in California and did have an earlier win over the downhill turf course - I just chose the wrong candidate. My pick, California Flag, broke poorly and got trapped on the rail. There was a huge traffic jam at the head of the stretch where it looked like just about everyone else still had a shot. But deep in the stretch, Mizdirection (7-1) broke free on the outside and stormed to the front with a very impressive turn of foot. Great race, bad bet.
Running total: - $20 for the day. -$58.50 overall
5) BC Juvenile G1 - 1 1/16 mile for 2 yr old colts & gelding. Purse $2 million.
My pick: Power Broker - $5 to Win
Shanghai Bobby is the obvious favorite, undefeated winner of the G1 Champagne et al. But Power Broker looks to have a real shot, especially with a recent win at this track and distance, and the odds are much more to my liking.
And away they go! (5:39 PM EST)
Power Broker got floated wide around the first turn, which used up some of the stamina he would need for a stretch run. Shanghai Bobby stalked the pace in second, hit the lead around the far turn, looked like he was exhausted in the stretch, was actually headed by He's Had Enough, but almost miraculously rallied and wound up winning comfortably. Definite 2 year champion and contender for Horse of the Year. Nice to see Rosie Napravnik in the winner's circle.
Running total: - $25 for the day. -$63.50 overall
Okay, I really need to go with the obvious winners, since they win - obviously! Better to take an even money favourite who wins then better odds on someone who doesn't.
6) BC Turf G1 - 1 1/2 mile for 3 yr old & up. Purse $3 million.
My pick: Point of Entry - $10 to win
Despite the traditional Euro domination of this race, Point of Entry seems to have all the cards to win. I think he's my last real shot to break even as the remaining races are wide open and my choices have not been exactly inspired.
And they're off! (6:21 PM EST)
Little Mike (17-1) has always been a determined pacesetter, so was generally counted out because there were several others who looked likely to join him upfront, burning each other out. But instead Little Mike rated in third when Turbo Compressor gunned it for the lead. He had a comfortable race and inherited a decisive lead at the head of the stretch when the pacesetter tired. Point of Entry was much too far back in the early running IMO and simply had too much ground to make up. He did close to within half a length of Little Mike at the wire, but it was not quite enough. The race was exceptionally fast - 2:22.83 for a mile and a half, just a tick off the track record.
Running total: - $35 for the day. -$73.50 overall. I haven't had this bad a day at the track since... well... ever.
7) BC Sprint G1 - 6 furlongs for 3 yr old & up. Purse $1.5 million.
My pick: why are you asking me? Anyways, going with Coil - $5 to place.
He's been consistently in the money this year and won last time out at this track and distance.
And away they go! (7:02 PM EST)
Not unexpectedly, Sum of the Parts and Trinniberg (13-1) went for the lead and set sizzling fractions (1/2 mile in 43.72). I expected them to collapse down the stretch, but Trinniberg ran a monster race and proved much the best. Coil was never in contention. *sigh*
Running total: - $40 for the day. -$78.50 overall.
8) BC Mile G1 (4:40 PT) - 1 mile on the Turf for 3 yr old & up. Purse $2 million.
My pick: Obviously - $5 to win
I like getting 6-1 for a horse who looks to be the lone speed in the race and has won three in a row. An exceptionally deep field though.
And they're off!
Obviously went to the lead and looked threatening all the way to the stretch. Then Wise Dan made his move and made it look too easy, winning as he pleased. A definite horse of the year candidate. I was thrilled to see Animal Kingdom, last year's Derby winner who has struggled since with a series of injuries, come storming home for second. Obviously held on for third. Wise Dan set a course record, always an impressive feat when horses are carrying classic weights.
9) BC Classic G1 (5:35 PT) - 1 1/4 mile for 3 yr old & up. Purse $5 million.
My pick: no clue, so I went with Mucho Macho Man - $5 to win at 8-1. They all seem to have beat each other, so I went with an overlay.
And away they go!
Close, so close! I was right to pick against the favourite, Game On Dude, who didn't show up today. This was very much a jockey's race and Mike Smith gave Mucho Macho Man every chance by keeping him in second all the way around. But Brian Hernandez gave Fort Larned (9-1) the ultimate ride, putting him on the lead early and judging the pace to perfection. Fort Larned had enough left in the stretch to hold off a game Mucho Macho Man in a real thriller. Well done!
In summary, three favourites won - Groupie Doll, Shanghai Bobby and Wise Dan, and there were six upsets, most of them double digit payouts. The pick 4 on the last 4 races was worth over $11,000! A crazy day of racing but great fun. Yes, none of my picks won, but if I'd bet them to show I would have had a modest profit. Live and learn!
1) BC Juvenile Turf G1 - 1 mile on the turf for 2 yr old colts & geldings. Purse $1 million.
My pick: Artiago $5 to win - too many options so I'm just going for a long shot here. I figure the Euros are good enough to win but look pretty evenly matched, so looking for some decent odds.
And away they go! (2:52 PM EST)
Lots of traffic problems in a very large field on a very tight course. Euro George Vancouver surprised me by racing near the lead, keeping out of the traffic jam. He then exploded free at the top of the stretch and won with authority. Why did I choose Artiago instead of him? Darn - could have got 9-1 on a horse with absolutely impecable breeding, trained by the alway dangerous Aidan O'Brien. Right thought, wrong pick
Running total: - $5 for the day. -$43.50 overall
2) BC F&M Sprint G1 - 7 furlong for fillies and mares, 3 yr & up. Purse $1 million.
My Pick: Switch $5 to place
Groupie Doll is the clear class of the field, winner of 4 straight with some monster speed numbers. But she's odds-on in a field containing a lot of really good horses, so I'm going for longshot Switch, who I've liked ever since she gave Zenyatta a real tussle in the Lady's Secret (now renamed the Zenyatta) two years back.
And they're off! (3:37 PM EST)
Groupie Doll looked for the lead early but was content to rate when a couple of long shots gunned past her. At the top of the stretch, Dust and Diamonds took the lead but Groupie Doll exploded past her to a commanding victory. Absolutely no doubt about who is this year's champion distaff sprinter.
And the moral of the story is: don't second guess yourself, and don't bet on sentiment (even though Switch did finish third so hardly embarrassed herself).
Running total: - $10 for the day. -$48.50 overall
3) BC Dirt Mile G1 - 1 mile for 3 yr old & up. Purse $1 million.
My pick: Shackleford - $5 to place
A fairly weak field by Breeders Cup standards since the best horses head for the larger purses in either the Sprint, (Turf) Mile or Classic. Shackleford is the mild morning line favorite based on his earlier performance in the G1 Metropolitan Mile (incidentally, considered the most important race for establishing a stallion prospect - don't expect to see Shackleford back on the track next year.)
And away they go! (4:15 PM EST)
Shackleford bobbled at the start and essentially lost all chance. *sigh* Tapizar (15-1) got a good trip in stalking position and took over at the head of the stretch when the pacesetters tired. Rail Trip tried to make a run but never threatened the winner.
Running total: - $15 for the day. -$53.50 overall
4) BC Turf Sprint G1 - 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf for 3 yr old & up. Purse $1 million.
My pick: California Flag - $5 to show
The Turf Sprint takes place on a unique downhill course that is known as a course for certain horses (ie, horses either like it and win repeatedly, or hate it and never get into gear). California Flag has had a long layoff but must be kept in mind based on a previous victory in this race when last held at Santa Anita. Hoping to make back a little of the money I've lost today.
And they're off! (5:01 PM EST)
Wow, got this wrong although my reasoning was right. The eventual winner was based in California and did have an earlier win over the downhill turf course - I just chose the wrong candidate. My pick, California Flag, broke poorly and got trapped on the rail. There was a huge traffic jam at the head of the stretch where it looked like just about everyone else still had a shot. But deep in the stretch, Mizdirection (7-1) broke free on the outside and stormed to the front with a very impressive turn of foot. Great race, bad bet.
Running total: - $20 for the day. -$58.50 overall
5) BC Juvenile G1 - 1 1/16 mile for 2 yr old colts & gelding. Purse $2 million.
My pick: Power Broker - $5 to Win
Shanghai Bobby is the obvious favorite, undefeated winner of the G1 Champagne et al. But Power Broker looks to have a real shot, especially with a recent win at this track and distance, and the odds are much more to my liking.
And away they go! (5:39 PM EST)
Power Broker got floated wide around the first turn, which used up some of the stamina he would need for a stretch run. Shanghai Bobby stalked the pace in second, hit the lead around the far turn, looked like he was exhausted in the stretch, was actually headed by He's Had Enough, but almost miraculously rallied and wound up winning comfortably. Definite 2 year champion and contender for Horse of the Year. Nice to see Rosie Napravnik in the winner's circle.
Running total: - $25 for the day. -$63.50 overall
Okay, I really need to go with the obvious winners, since they win - obviously! Better to take an even money favourite who wins then better odds on someone who doesn't.
6) BC Turf G1 - 1 1/2 mile for 3 yr old & up. Purse $3 million.
My pick: Point of Entry - $10 to win
Despite the traditional Euro domination of this race, Point of Entry seems to have all the cards to win. I think he's my last real shot to break even as the remaining races are wide open and my choices have not been exactly inspired.
And they're off! (6:21 PM EST)
Little Mike (17-1) has always been a determined pacesetter, so was generally counted out because there were several others who looked likely to join him upfront, burning each other out. But instead Little Mike rated in third when Turbo Compressor gunned it for the lead. He had a comfortable race and inherited a decisive lead at the head of the stretch when the pacesetter tired. Point of Entry was much too far back in the early running IMO and simply had too much ground to make up. He did close to within half a length of Little Mike at the wire, but it was not quite enough. The race was exceptionally fast - 2:22.83 for a mile and a half, just a tick off the track record.
Running total: - $35 for the day. -$73.50 overall. I haven't had this bad a day at the track since... well... ever.
7) BC Sprint G1 - 6 furlongs for 3 yr old & up. Purse $1.5 million.
My pick: why are you asking me? Anyways, going with Coil - $5 to place.
He's been consistently in the money this year and won last time out at this track and distance.
And away they go! (7:02 PM EST)
Not unexpectedly, Sum of the Parts and Trinniberg (13-1) went for the lead and set sizzling fractions (1/2 mile in 43.72). I expected them to collapse down the stretch, but Trinniberg ran a monster race and proved much the best. Coil was never in contention. *sigh*
Running total: - $40 for the day. -$78.50 overall.
8) BC Mile G1 (4:40 PT) - 1 mile on the Turf for 3 yr old & up. Purse $2 million.
My pick: Obviously - $5 to win
I like getting 6-1 for a horse who looks to be the lone speed in the race and has won three in a row. An exceptionally deep field though.
And they're off!
Obviously went to the lead and looked threatening all the way to the stretch. Then Wise Dan made his move and made it look too easy, winning as he pleased. A definite horse of the year candidate. I was thrilled to see Animal Kingdom, last year's Derby winner who has struggled since with a series of injuries, come storming home for second. Obviously held on for third. Wise Dan set a course record, always an impressive feat when horses are carrying classic weights.
9) BC Classic G1 (5:35 PT) - 1 1/4 mile for 3 yr old & up. Purse $5 million.
My pick: no clue, so I went with Mucho Macho Man - $5 to win at 8-1. They all seem to have beat each other, so I went with an overlay.
And away they go!
Close, so close! I was right to pick against the favourite, Game On Dude, who didn't show up today. This was very much a jockey's race and Mike Smith gave Mucho Macho Man every chance by keeping him in second all the way around. But Brian Hernandez gave Fort Larned (9-1) the ultimate ride, putting him on the lead early and judging the pace to perfection. Fort Larned had enough left in the stretch to hold off a game Mucho Macho Man in a real thriller. Well done!
In summary, three favourites won - Groupie Doll, Shanghai Bobby and Wise Dan, and there were six upsets, most of them double digit payouts. The pick 4 on the last 4 races was worth over $11,000! A crazy day of racing but great fun. Yes, none of my picks won, but if I'd bet them to show I would have had a modest profit. Live and learn!