E-book Privilege

[jimhines]

I’ve been thinking about e-books a lot lately, for some reason.  (Amazon still hasn’t restored Macmillan titles, last I checked.)  In particular, there’s a debate in the SFWA Lounge about the shift from printed books to electronic.

I think we’re in a very dynamic time.  E-books are changing, and we’re waiting to see who’s going to be the dinosaurs

Comments

[oldcharliebrown]

I think you're forgetting the long-trend for print runs, in that as they drop, retail prices will increase. There may come a point where it makes more sense to invest in a cheap ebook device, and ebooks, rather than spend a lot more, considerably, in physical releases.

[jimhines]

I did think about that, actually. As e-books cut into print profits, we get smaller and more expensive print runs, and this drives prices back up. On the other hand, as print-on-demand technology improves, will we be able to get $7.99 as a reasonable PoD price point?

I honestly don't know. If the e-book and reader gets down to a few bucks, then everything I said is void. But I don't see that price coming down enough any time soon.

And I certainly might be wrong about any and all of my future speculation.

[temporus]

Wouldn't there simply be a point where the long run print prices get reasonably close to the POD pricing, or at least negligably diffferent from a retail point of view, and therefore POD would replace long run print?

IE, POD doesn't necessarily have to come down to the $7.99 point, the price curve of POD as it gets better/cheaper just has to meet the price curve of traditional print methods (like offset printing, I don't know if there are others) that get more expensive as the print run sizes come down.

Frankly, I'm already seeing mmpbs edging in on the $10 range. How much is the cost of a mmpb in POD terms now? I don't know. I know that POD trade paperback still seems high from what I can tell, but not so far out of the price range that small presses aren't trying to make a go of it.

[oldcharliebrown]

The unit costs for pod, regardless of size, is still basically 4 to 5 times what it would cost to print a traditional print run.

[cathshaffer]

I don't think paperback books are going to "go away," but I think a lot of people misunderstand how fast the media can change. There are millions of cell phones in-hands already that can handle ebook formats. A dedicated ebook reader is only one of several options for reading ebooks.

As for people not being able to afford them--how many people do you know that do not have a TV? How many people do you know who have not upgraded to some kind of HD TV? And the cost of electronic devices does come down pretty fast. I just gave my mother an MP3 player for Christmas that cost $30. That device is technically capable of displaying an ebook, as well, though I wouldn't want to read on its screen. I think we need to imagine and prepare for a world where ebooks are popular and common, and not artificially dominated by any one format or supplier.

[suricattus]

The thought of reading an entire book on my phone... no thanks. Short fiction and e-mail and essays and newspapers, yes. An entire book? I'd have a raging headache before chapter three.

[cathshaffer]

So?

[suricattus]

So, I'm hardly alone in that, and therefore there is a large percentage of the worldwide population to whom cell phone reading isn't an option, requiring the purchase of a separate ebook reader.

You brought the subject up; I was merely responding with a different datapoint.

[suricattus]

I am reminded (perhaps inevitably, being of a multi-generation publishing family) that mass market paperbacks were going to utterly destroy hardcover publishing, and literature as we knew it.

(well, they got that half-right)

Right now we're not at a crossroads, but a multiple-lane overpass, and nobody's sure who has right-of-way. Strap in and hold the wheel at 10 and 2....

[jimhines]

Heck with that -- I'm getting a flying car!

[suricattus]

Think carefully about that before you put down the deposit. How many drivers have trouble with basic driving? Who talk on cell phones and apply makeup and get hand jobs while operating heavy machinery? And now you want to give them another dimension to be idiots in?

[jimhines]

Nowhere did I say that I wanted anyone *else* to have access to flying cars :-)

[barbhendee]

Hi Jim,

It never ceases to amaze me when I have conversations with tech savvy middle class friends who appear to have no idea how a large percentage of our population actually lives. My friends look at me in honest confusion when I mention that many people might not be able to afford an electronic reader.

Right now, JC and my mass market paperback sales are doing fairly well, even in this economy, but our hard cover sales are understandably down. Not as many people have $25 for a hard cover book.

But I think even in the worst of times, a person who "reads" might buy a little comfort with a $7 mm book (I know I have).

At present, a Kindle costs $259. I do see this price dropping very soon as Amazon is going to wish to take it out of direct competition with the iPad--and have it viewed in a different category. But still . . . you are absolutely correct and an electronic reader is STILL just an expensive luxury.

[jimhines]

There's a lot of things we take for granted. There's no way I could justify $259 for an e-book reader, or even $99 really. (We do have the fancy TV, though :-)

But because, like I said in another comment, I spend most of my time interacting with people who fall into the broad category of "like me," it's easy to start making assumptions and taking things for granted.

I do think prices are going to drop dramatically, both from the competition and as the technology improves. But will it drop enough to be accessible to all, and if so, how long will it take to get there?

[oldcharliebrown]

A year, maybe two, tops, before it hits $149.00, and then we'll see it hit $99.00 in 2012, I would bet.

[oldcharliebrown]

I stand corrected: the Sony Pocket Reader currently sells for $175.00, which suggests that lower price points will be achieved in six months or less. You might see $99.00 next year.

[matociquala]

Yep.

Books are a mature technology; they're incredibly durable (though modern papers are less so); portable; cheap; work during a power outage or on a camping trip; survive dunking in the bathtub; and if somebody comes to my house and deletes my *&^%&%^*& library, I can have the motherfucker arrested.

ebooks have many fine qualities, and I read on my laptop a LOT. But they cannot do those things that books do best.

I don't think ebooks will replace paper books any more than movies have replaced stage plays. I see them occupying complementary niches, however, and ebooks gradually gaining better market share as people older than me die off. *g*

But then, I figure by then we will all have ONE electronic appliance we carry with us everywhere and wirelessly 'port into various peripherals.

[jimhines]

"But then, I figure by then we will all have ONE electronic appliance we carry with us everywhere and wirelessly 'port into various peripherals."

That's my guess as to where things are headed. I'm waiting for the day my insulin pump will also take my phone calls, back up my writing, and let me download & watch the latest episode of Criminal Minds.

[dulcinbradbury]

work during a power outage or on a camping trip;

I actually have a friend who takes her kindle camping. If she turns off the wireless, the battery power lasts a week, and, she doesn't have to carry multiple books.

[tsubaki_ny]

You know what I'm mostly afraid of, with ebooks? I'm afraid of carrying an expensive piece of tech on the subway for my daily commute. Nobody ever got mugged for a paper book, I don't think! And sadly my commute is where I do most of my reading -- 2.5 hours daily of guaranteed sit-down time.

(I'd love them for vacations, though.)