Jan 23, 2006 18:11
OTTAWA, Canada (AP) -- No matter which way Canadians cast their ballots in the 39th general election for a House of Commons on Monday, the country's political landscape is in for a dramatic change.
If Conservative leader Stephen Harper wins, as all the polls and pundits are predicting, it will end nearly 13 years of Liberal Party rule and could shift the traditionally liberal country to the right on socioeconomic issues such as health care, taxation, gay marriage and abortion.
Relations with the Bush administration would likely improve under a Harper government, as his ideology runs along the same lines of many Republicans south of the border. (Watch anti-Americanism in campaign -- 2:18 )
Even if Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin, 67, does eke out a win, he'll head a weak minority government that will find it very difficult to get things done in the House of Commons.
As voters headed to 60,000 polling stations amid unseasonably mild winter weather, final opinion polls gave the Conservatives a lead between 6 and 10 percentage points, indicating that Canadians want change. (Facts, figures)
Many are utterly disgusted by the broken promises and corruption scandals of the Liberal Party and possibly willing to give Harper the benefit of doubt, despite fears the 46-year-old economist is too extreme in his views opposing abortion and gay marriage.
"Canadians can disagree, but it takes a lot to get Canadians to intensely hate something or hate somebody. And it usually involves hockey," Harper quipped Sunday, referring to the Liberal Party attempt to paint him as a scary right-winger.
Canada's 22.7 million registered voters will get their first inkling of what's in store shortly after voting ends in Newfoundland at 7 p.m. EST (0000 GMT). If it's a tight race, the winner may not be known until the ballot counting begins in western British Columbia at 10 p.m. EST (0300 GMT Tuesday).
With the mild weather, voter turnout was expected to be better than in the June 2004 election, when 60 percent of the registered voters cast ballots, the lowest turnout since 1898.
Martin's minority government was toppled in a no-confidence vote in November, unable to overcome a corruption scandal involving the misuse of funds for a national unity program in Quebec. (Full story)
An investigation absolved Martin of wrongdoing but accused senior Liberals of taking kickbacks and misspending tens of millions of dollars in public funds.
Just as campaigning hit full swing during an unusual election campaign over the Christmas holidays, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police announced they were investigating a possible leak by Liberal government officials that appeared to have influenced the stock market.
William Azaroff, 35, voted for the left-of-center New Democratic Party on Monday, but unhappily conceded there will be a Conservative government.
"I think it's a shame," said Azaroff, a business manager in Vancouver. "I kind of want to see Paul Martin lose on a certain level, because they have a sense of entitlement.
"At the same time, I think the last government was actually quite effective for Canadians. I think a Conservative government is just a backlash against certain corruption and the sense of entitlement."
When the 38th Parliament was dissolved in November, 133 seats belonged to the Liberals, 98 were Conservative, 53 were filled by the Quebec separatist party Bloc Quebecois and the New Democrats had 18 seats. There were also four Independents and two vacancies.
If the Liberals defy the polls and eke out a win with a minority government in the 308-seat House, Martin will remain weak. And if Harper fails to get a majority -- he needs 155 seats -- he would require support from opposition parties to pass legislation.
Harper vows better U.S. relations
Harper, 46, has pledged to cut the red tape in Canada's social welfare programs, lower the national sales tax from 7 percent to 5 percent, and grant more autonomy and federal funding to the country's 13 provinces and territories.
He also says he would improve relations between Canada and the United States, which comprise the world's largest trading bloc and conduct $1.5 billion (1.22 billion euros) in business daily.
The Liberals have angered the Bush administration in recent years, condemning the war in Iraq, refusing to join the continental anti-ballistic missile plan and loudly criticizing Washington for rejecting the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gas emissions and enacting punitive tariffs on Canadian lumber.
Harper said he would reconsider the missile defense scheme, move beyond the Kyoto debate by establishing different environmental controls and tone down the "war of words" over lumber.
He wants to spend more on the Canadian military, expand its peacekeeping missions in Afghanistan and Haiti, and tighten security along the border with the United States in an effort to prevent terrorists and guns from crossing the frontier.
Martin has trumpeted eight consecutive budget surpluses and sought to paint Harper as a right-winger posing as a moderate to woo mainstream voters. The prime minister also has promised to lower income taxes, implement a national child-care program and ban handguns.
He claims Harper supports the war in Iraq, which most Canadians oppose, and would try to outlaw abortion and overturn nationwide gay marriage legislation approved in July -- all of which Harper denies.
Laureen Browne, a longtime Liberal supporter from Harper's western Canadian constituency of Calgary, worries a Harper government would kowtow to U.S. interests.
"If the Conservatives win, we may as well become another U.S. state and let George Bush make decisions for us," said Browne, who hasn't missed an election in 40 years. "If I don't vote, then I can't complain; and if the predictions are right, I will be complaining the loudest."