the latest on the swine flu
Countries with reported cases:
Mexico 1300 suspected cases, 18 confirmed dead, 80 more deaths suspected
United States 20 confirmed
Switzerland 5 suspected
New Zealand 13 suspected
France 1 suspected
Spain 2 confirmed, 1 more suspected
Canada 6 confirmed
Israel 2 suspected
Even if this does not turn into a pandemic along the lines of the 1918 flu, the precautions could be as bad the illness itself. The fears appear to be quite valid. Although there are few cases outside Mexico, it apepars as if the swine flu has a fatality rate of 6-8% depending on what stats you read. The flu typically has a 1/10th of 1% fatality rate and most of those are among the very young and the very old. The flu of 1918 had a mortality rate around 1%. This flu is not only far more lethal, it is killing people 18-40, people who rarely die from the flu to begin with.
As the flu has spread into various countries, there is talk of quarantines and prohibiting travel. The EU has already told people not to travel to Mexico or the US. Texas and NYC have seen schools shut down as a result of the outbreaks there. Mexico has banned all large gatherings such as church services and soccer matches. It is quite likely we would see the same in other countries if the disease spreads. If people stop traveling, stop going to public events it will likely have a detrimental effect on the economy worldwide. Airline stocks are expected to take a hit in anticipation of reduced air travel due to the disease.
Most of the world economy is in a slowdown already, if not an outright recession. The cost of the precautions, combined with a hit to the economy could prove more devestating then the illness itself... I'm not at all suggesting that we do nothing to stop the spread of the disease. We don't know enough about it and we don't have enough of any mediciations that prevent or treat swine flu. Tamiflu and relenza appear to work against the flu if taken early enough, and the US has 50M doses available. Do other countries? Who knows?
CDC page on swine flu
Mexico 1300 suspected cases, 18 confirmed dead, 80 more deaths suspected
United States 20 confirmed
Switzerland 5 suspected
New Zealand 13 suspected
France 1 suspected
Spain 2 confirmed, 1 more suspected
Canada 6 confirmed
Israel 2 suspected
Even if this does not turn into a pandemic along the lines of the 1918 flu, the precautions could be as bad the illness itself. The fears appear to be quite valid. Although there are few cases outside Mexico, it apepars as if the swine flu has a fatality rate of 6-8% depending on what stats you read. The flu typically has a 1/10th of 1% fatality rate and most of those are among the very young and the very old. The flu of 1918 had a mortality rate around 1%. This flu is not only far more lethal, it is killing people 18-40, people who rarely die from the flu to begin with.
As the flu has spread into various countries, there is talk of quarantines and prohibiting travel. The EU has already told people not to travel to Mexico or the US. Texas and NYC have seen schools shut down as a result of the outbreaks there. Mexico has banned all large gatherings such as church services and soccer matches. It is quite likely we would see the same in other countries if the disease spreads. If people stop traveling, stop going to public events it will likely have a detrimental effect on the economy worldwide. Airline stocks are expected to take a hit in anticipation of reduced air travel due to the disease.
Most of the world economy is in a slowdown already, if not an outright recession. The cost of the precautions, combined with a hit to the economy could prove more devestating then the illness itself... I'm not at all suggesting that we do nothing to stop the spread of the disease. We don't know enough about it and we don't have enough of any mediciations that prevent or treat swine flu. Tamiflu and relenza appear to work against the flu if taken early enough, and the US has 50M doses available. Do other countries? Who knows?
CDC page on swine flu