The Question That Nobody's Asking

[jeff_duntemann]

I've been scratching my head a lot lately, and I need to stop before I wear through my scalp. (My natural armor has been mostly gone for thirty-five years.) It's a natural, nay obvious question, which I'm putting in bold and giving its own paragraph:

If masks prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections, where did the

Comments

[backrubbear]

I'll tell you where it didn't come from: People ditching their masks.

I can't speak to Arizona, but here's some observations from Michigan where the graph is a bit better correlated to government action. (Whether people like it or not is a different matter.)

Even pushing hard on mask use, and generally rising compliance with at least having one, people are very inconsistent about their use. The trivial example, the people who won't wear them over their noses.

What's slide around the most in Michigan has been the different levels of shutdown we've been through. In general, when known high risk situations are reduced, our curves flatten.

Masks are at best a mitigation. Once you've gotten past the level of mitigating something, large number issues start kicking in.

Sadly, I think your October+ curve is the election/holiday curve we've seen elsewhere.

[jeff_duntemann]

I'm doubtful that masks are a mitigation, and their effectiveness may be down somewhere between 5% and 10%. Still looking for good research. I don't see people exposing their noses anymore, and the masks appear to be of a better quality and more tightly worn.

Nor do I think outdoor transmission is much of a threat, especially here in AZ, where the Sun is pretty damned fierce during the day, almost every day. Even a little breeze disperses exhaled viruses to the point where I doubt people nearby would inhale viral load sufficient for infection.

I'm still looking for new avenues of research, and will report any that I find. Thanks for stopping by, in any event.

[backrubbear]

Still looking for good research

Perhaps to cut my own interaction here short, what's wrong with the stuff from CDC, Lancet, and NEJM?

I don't see people exposing their noses anymore

Consider yourself blessed.

[jeff_duntemann]

There's a political dimension to the disease that I don't want to get into here, and won't reply if it comes up.

[backrubbear]

Given I was first introduced to this LJ via the GT crowd years back, I am somewhat surprised by what I believe I'm inferring here. I'll show myself to the door.

[jeff_duntemann]

It's not about you. It's about the poisonous political climate we live with daily. I've avoided taking up politics online for that reason.

[backrubbear]

and their effectiveness may be down somewhere between 5% and 10%.

And FWIW, the material I've read from the sources I've mentioned is they are in the < 10% rate of protection for getting it from the environment. Their primary purpose, tersely, is to keep people from being disease sprayers. Hence, my comments about mitigation.