Election Night....
So tonight's primary was actually exciting. The numbers were constantly in flux and could have broken one way or another in the Democratic race at any time.
The talking heads of course focused on the process story because discussing issues would have required intelligence, poise, and skill. And god for bid that!!
What I found particularly interesting was that MSNBC was able to provide possible and frankly reasonable hypothesis on why Clinton blew away expectations (both her and Obama's internal polls had Obama winning in double digits so for him to loose is a big upset as it is way outside the margin for error) but both Fox news and CNN were left completely clueless. Their attempts to explain what happened were conspicuously laughable and insulting. Was this because they have less savvy analysis? Possibly but probably not. Did they not want to talk about race in America? Now that is an interesting question.... And to be honest an equally good theory is that more women voters than expected and less new voters than expected came out. This is known to be true; MSNBC shared the numbers behind their pre-polling and the exit polls. A break in either of these demographics from what was expected could go a long way to explain the results we saw tonight. Both race (which has often thwarted candidates who had huge leads going into an election) and the specifics of voter turn out are good theories and can be tested in the next several primaries. The idea that people changed their mind at the last minute is obsurd because exit poles clearly showed that voters who made up their mind in the last three days were evenly split between Clinton and Obama.
BTW - For those of you who know little about how these elections work you have primaries (behind a booth) and caucus's (votes are cast in public with friends and familly memebers) As anyone who has taken a civics class or is honest with themselves can tell you, what you are willing to say publicly (in front of friends and family) and what you are willing to say privately (behind a booth) can be materially different.
Democratic primary and caucus schedule (for Jan and Feb)
January 2008 - Democratic
8 - New Hampshire Primary
15 - Michigan (on 12/01/07 the DNC took away their delegates)
19 - Nevada caucus (approved by DNC)
26 - South Carolina Primary (approved by DNC)
29 - Florida Primary (penalized by DNC for breaking party rules, resulted in losing their delegates)
February 2008 - Democratic
Super Tuesday - February 5th - Democratic
Alabama, Alaska caucus, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado caucus, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho caucus, Illinois, Kansas caucus, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucus, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico caucus, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, American Samoa caucus
Later February 2008 - Democratic
9 - Louisiana, Nebraska caucus, Washington caucus, U.S. Virgin
Republican primary and caucus schedule (for Jan and Feb)
January 2008 - Republican
5 - Wyoming Republican Convention
8 - New Hampshire Primary
15 - Michigan
19 - Nevada, South Carolina
29 - Florida
February 2008 - Republican
1 - Maine
Super Tuesday - February 5th - Republican
Alabama, Alaska , Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
Later February 2008 - Republican
9 - Louisiana, Kansas, Washington (18 of 40)
12 - D.C., Maryland, Virginia
19 - Wisconsin, Washington (19 of 40)
Taken from http://ctbob.blogspot.com/2006/11/for-political-junkies-2008-primary.html
I generally don't watch CNN these days. It is a horrible news station. I find it to be poor and without interest. In my opinion if you are going to do news badly be entertaining. If you are going to be serious in the pursuit of pretending you are providing a quality news outlet then you not only insulting my intelligence but you are insulting my intelligence.
The talking heads of course focused on the process story because discussing issues would have required intelligence, poise, and skill. And god for bid that!!
What I found particularly interesting was that MSNBC was able to provide possible and frankly reasonable hypothesis on why Clinton blew away expectations (both her and Obama's internal polls had Obama winning in double digits so for him to loose is a big upset as it is way outside the margin for error) but both Fox news and CNN were left completely clueless. Their attempts to explain what happened were conspicuously laughable and insulting. Was this because they have less savvy analysis? Possibly but probably not. Did they not want to talk about race in America? Now that is an interesting question.... And to be honest an equally good theory is that more women voters than expected and less new voters than expected came out. This is known to be true; MSNBC shared the numbers behind their pre-polling and the exit polls. A break in either of these demographics from what was expected could go a long way to explain the results we saw tonight. Both race (which has often thwarted candidates who had huge leads going into an election) and the specifics of voter turn out are good theories and can be tested in the next several primaries. The idea that people changed their mind at the last minute is obsurd because exit poles clearly showed that voters who made up their mind in the last three days were evenly split between Clinton and Obama.
BTW - For those of you who know little about how these elections work you have primaries (behind a booth) and caucus's (votes are cast in public with friends and familly memebers) As anyone who has taken a civics class or is honest with themselves can tell you, what you are willing to say publicly (in front of friends and family) and what you are willing to say privately (behind a booth) can be materially different.
Democratic primary and caucus schedule (for Jan and Feb)
January 2008 - Democratic
8 - New Hampshire Primary
15 - Michigan (on 12/01/07 the DNC took away their delegates)
19 - Nevada caucus (approved by DNC)
26 - South Carolina Primary (approved by DNC)
29 - Florida Primary (penalized by DNC for breaking party rules, resulted in losing their delegates)
February 2008 - Democratic
Super Tuesday - February 5th - Democratic
Alabama, Alaska caucus, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado caucus, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho caucus, Illinois, Kansas caucus, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucus, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico caucus, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, American Samoa caucus
Later February 2008 - Democratic
9 - Louisiana, Nebraska caucus, Washington caucus, U.S. Virgin
Republican primary and caucus schedule (for Jan and Feb)
January 2008 - Republican
5 - Wyoming Republican Convention
8 - New Hampshire Primary
15 - Michigan
19 - Nevada, South Carolina
29 - Florida
February 2008 - Republican
1 - Maine
Super Tuesday - February 5th - Republican
Alabama, Alaska , Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
Later February 2008 - Republican
9 - Louisiana, Kansas, Washington (18 of 40)
12 - D.C., Maryland, Virginia
19 - Wisconsin, Washington (19 of 40)
Taken from http://ctbob.blogspot.com/2006/11/for-political-junkies-2008-primary.html
I generally don't watch CNN these days. It is a horrible news station. I find it to be poor and without interest. In my opinion if you are going to do news badly be entertaining. If you are going to be serious in the pursuit of pretending you are providing a quality news outlet then you not only insulting my intelligence but you are insulting my intelligence.