(no subject)
Somehow (probably as a result of something Paul said, though I don't recall exactly) we got to talking about who was going to win the 2004 US presidential election, and I said that Bush was going to win in a landslide (which he will). When asked in general how a landslide is defined, I said that Bush is going to win by 10 (percentage) points, and Paul bet me that he wouldn't. At first he asked if I'd bet $1,000, but I think he only said that because he didn't think I'd do it, because when I said I'd bet him $100, he wasn't willing to. So instead whoever loses is going to wear the campaign pin of the candidate of the winner for a day. I suppose, since I think he said he thought that the Democrat was going to win, I should've split the difference with him and said that I'd win the bet if Bush won by more than 5 points and Paul would win if he didn't. But I still there's a good enough chance that he'll win by the full 10 points that it's at least an even bet, and I think it's inconceivable that he'd win by less than 8 points.