eia.gov: Market Prices and Uncertainty Report, июль 2014
Money Manager Positions: Money manager net long positions for Brent reached their highest level since the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) began tracking them in 2011 at 242,000 contracts on June 24 (Figure 4). An increase in risks to future crude oil production in Iraq contributed to the rise in net money managers positions in Brent futures contracts. A similar increase in net length, and the last time that net money manager positions reached more than 200,000 contracts, occurred last year when Libyan supply disruptions removed 1 million b/d from global markets. Net length in WTI contracts decreased slightly throughout June, falling by 13,000 contracts since June 3.
Volatility: Implied volatility for both the Brent and WTI front month futures contract increased in June as the situation in Iraq added uncertainty to future oil supplies but then declined toward the end of the month. Brent and WTI implied volatility settled at 12.8% and 12.4%, respectively, on July 3, falling by 0.8 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, since June 2 (Figure 5).
The correlation between daily percent changes in the Brent futures contract and its implied volatility is an indicator of the degree to which supply-side risks are influencing oil prices. The rolling 30-trading day correlation between daily changes of Brent prices and implied volatility changes became positive on June 12, shortly after tensions in Iraq increased, and was 0.67 for the 30-trading-day period ending July 3 (Figure 6). This marked the highest correlation since September 2013, when Libyan crude oil production dropped sharply. The continuing positive correlation suggests that the recent drop in prices could reflect a decline in concern surrounding future Iraqi oil production.
While temperatures in the United States were colder than normal this past winter, temperatures in Europe were much milder compared to historical averages. Similar to what happened in the United States after its own mild winter in December 2011 to January 2012, inventory levels at the start of injection season were higher than normal in the United Kingdom and prices for natural gas moved lower there. The price of natural gas at the U.K. national balancing point was $6.54/MMBTU on July 3, the lowest level since September 2010 and the smallest differential to the U.S. Henry Hub price since September 2010 (Figure 13).
Volatility: Natural gas implied volatility decreased 0.5 percentage points since June 2, settling at 27% on July 3 (Figure 14). Realized historical volatility increased 0.8 percentage points from June 2, settling at 28.9% on July 3.
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