It's been a while, so here is a politics post, less than a week from the election
Just a few things to note, really...
1) McCain is so confident of winning his own state of Arizona that he and RNC have started Robocalls there. In the words of Homer Simpson -- Doh! *snort*
2) Sarah Palin has been accused of even more corruption Go take a look This is accusation number three. If she's gets found guilty of this one, she'll be three for three. I don't think she quite understands that this is not something to be proud of.
3) The Senate campaign in North Carolina is getting dirty with Elizabeth Dole accusing her rival (who is, among other things, a sunday school teacher) of being Godless. How chariming
4) So, the newest round of polling is out and this is what The New Republic had to say:-
What we can say, when we put all this information together, is that there are two things that John McCain is NOT doing.
Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama's margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now ... that's where we have it, that's where RCP has it, that where Pollster.com has it. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama's margin -- but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy.
Number two, John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most. The top tier of states in this election are Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. There is lots of lots of polling in these states, particularly in Virgnia and Pennsylvania, and it's all coming up in roughly the same range, showing Obama leads in the high single digits (in VA and CO) or the low double digits (in PA). The second tier of states is probably Ohio, Florida and Nevada. McCain seems to be getting a bit stronger in Florida; Obama seems to be getting a bit stronger in Ohio and Nevada. McCain does seem to have halted Obama's progress in some of the third-tier states, particularly Missouri and North Carolina. On the other hand, some other third-tier states, like New Mexico and particularly New Hampshire (where Obama is getting some insane numbers lately), now appear to be off the table.
5) If you look at snapshots of the RNC and DNC websites, you'll see that while the Democrats seem to be well aware that a Presidential election is less than a week away, the Republicans seem to have forgotten. See for yourselves
6) Obama's latest ad (not the 30 minute one, the other one) is genius. His choice - go watch
1) McCain is so confident of winning his own state of Arizona that he and RNC have started Robocalls there. In the words of Homer Simpson -- Doh! *snort*
2) Sarah Palin has been accused of even more corruption Go take a look This is accusation number three. If she's gets found guilty of this one, she'll be three for three. I don't think she quite understands that this is not something to be proud of.
3) The Senate campaign in North Carolina is getting dirty with Elizabeth Dole accusing her rival (who is, among other things, a sunday school teacher) of being Godless. How chariming
4) So, the newest round of polling is out and this is what The New Republic had to say:-
What we can say, when we put all this information together, is that there are two things that John McCain is NOT doing.
Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama's margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now ... that's where we have it, that's where RCP has it, that where Pollster.com has it. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama's margin -- but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy.
Number two, John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most. The top tier of states in this election are Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. There is lots of lots of polling in these states, particularly in Virgnia and Pennsylvania, and it's all coming up in roughly the same range, showing Obama leads in the high single digits (in VA and CO) or the low double digits (in PA). The second tier of states is probably Ohio, Florida and Nevada. McCain seems to be getting a bit stronger in Florida; Obama seems to be getting a bit stronger in Ohio and Nevada. McCain does seem to have halted Obama's progress in some of the third-tier states, particularly Missouri and North Carolina. On the other hand, some other third-tier states, like New Mexico and particularly New Hampshire (where Obama is getting some insane numbers lately), now appear to be off the table.
5) If you look at snapshots of the RNC and DNC websites, you'll see that while the Democrats seem to be well aware that a Presidential election is less than a week away, the Republicans seem to have forgotten. See for yourselves
6) Obama's latest ad (not the 30 minute one, the other one) is genius. His choice - go watch