After the recent scare that Spike might die--at least a little--in S8 because he's not on the final Jeanty cover, I got to thinking again.
Spike's not going to die, at least permanently. He's not important enough and he just died last "season". His arrival is to set up S9 and he acts as a symbol and opposition to Angel. Angel won't die either.
I don't think Dawn will die either. It's just too damned obvious. It would be much more of a shock if she doesn't. Same with Xander. Willow's in the future and Faith and Giles are in S9.
I'd say Andrew goes. Maybe Kennedy, too. I don't think any major characters are going to die permanently.
I am convinced of one thing, though, and that's:
Buffy's going away. Here's why I think so.
If you go back and look at the season, there are is a ton of foreshadowing within the group of a life post-Buffy. You have Giles basically training Faith to be her successor--shoot, Giles was looking for a weapon to kill her; Dawn doesn't need Buffy anymore to protect her; you have Willow saying she regrets bringing Buffy back and implies she wouldn't do it again; Xander is over Buffy; Xander and Dawn are an item and both plan to move away and settle down somewhere should they survive. All boiling down to Buffy not being needed anymore. Again, a big (offensive) theme in the comics there. Buffy, matriarch of the Scoobs and this new world, is not needed anymore. She's expendable, just like the old universe was when Twilight was made.
In Always Darkest, in the same temple the Seed is located in, both Spike and Angel bring up being left behind in Becoming and Chosen. In an interview a while back, Jeanty said Buffy might choose one or the other and live happily ever after, but that wouldn't happen for a long time. Both Spike and Angel are around, there's nothing keeping them apart, so why would it be a long time? Also, Joss's wife sussed the ending as soon as she found out Twilight was Angel, which to me signals a turn on Becoming.
There are also various hints that like Angel before being sent to hell, something is wrong with Buffy. Fray hints at it in her arc: "There's something skew with that one." Like Angel, I think Buffy is going to have a wake up moment to mirror the first arc. That would provide the biggest emotional impact, Buffy getting her figurative soul back while being cast into a hell dimension.
Buffy shatters the Seed. I'm convinced that's what the revealed Chen cover for 39 will be. In the future arc, Fray's brother calls Buffy 'The Slayer of Slayers' and we know from Aluwyn that breaking the Seed accomplishes the setup for Fray's world. Future Dark!Willow pulls Buffy into to the future to kill her, perhaps out of guilt. If Buffy were still around after this arc, why would she need to transport a past Buffy to do it? In Fray's world, the last chosen one sealed the gate with all demons and magic, which is what will happen when the Seed is broken. Seed breaks, cork is stuck and magic is gone and I suspect whatever is wrong with Buffy is lifted. I'm still thinking Ethan has something to do with the overall plot.
Add to all that the 'princess in the tower' theme of being shut away from the world and I'd say Buffy is a goner. If you wanted, you could even apply Joss's words that he is Buffy to this. The Buffyverse doesn't need him anymore just like it doesn't need Buffy. It'll continue on without him next year (mostly).
Of course Buffy will be in S9, but it won't be a conventional season. Everyone has their own arcs.
Also, better quality scans for people into that sort of thing.
http://www.sendspace.com/file/l0ml5z