The Eve of the Tour
Tomorrow is the first Saturday of July, and we all know what the means--it's time for the Tour de France!
In what has become an annual tradition for me, I will make my race prognostications.
The Yellow Jersey:
My Podium Prediction
1. Alberto Contador
2. Ivan Basso
3. Cadel Evans
Contador is the overwhelming favorite, and with good reason: no one can out-climb him and almost no one can out time trial him. How do you beat that guy? There are a few minor points in his disfavor, however.
One, his team isn't nearly as strong this year as they were last year. If they need to defend Contador's position, they could struggle.
Two, the cobblestones on Stage 3 could take him out of contention. Sure, he's been training with Peter Van Petegem, but he's never raced on cobbles, and he's not suited for them. Ask Iban Mayo what can happen when a skinny Spanish climber hits the pavé at 50 kph.
Three, Alexander Vinokourev is on his team. When that guy's around anything can happen.
Contador failed to impress me at the Dauphiné, but that's a much shorter race, and he's the type of rider who is still really strong in the third week of a Grand Tour. I still think he's the best choice to take top honors, but I don't think he's as strong as he was last year.
Basso looked really good in winning the Giro, and I think he has the second strongest team for riding the Tour (after RadioShack). He's not quite as strong as he was in his "intending to dope" days, but neither is most anybody else. If he can make the selection in the high mountains and hang tough in the ITT, he has a definite shot to podium.
Evans doesn't have much help in the high mountains, but he's got a good team for making the pace when it's flatter and for getting him through the cobbles. Except for a brief fling with Chris Horner, he's never had much help in the mountains, so he's used to getting isolated and hanging onto wheels. His time trialing is good, and he should come in ahead of whichever Schleck brother is leading up the Saxo Bank team.
Speaking of the Saxo Bank boys, I think they're making a mistake in throwing their weight behind Andy Schleck when his brother Fränk is riding better. This year, I really haven't seen Andy do much when it gets steep except drift out of the back of the pack. I imagine he's been working on his time trialing--he did just when his national title--and maybe that's affected his climbing. Be that as it may, I expect Fränk to be wearing the mantle of leadership at Saxo Bank by the final week.
RadioShack has so many strong riders, I could easily see them placing five riders in the top ten. I don't think they have anyone who can win it, though. (Sorry, Lance.) Jani Brajkovic looked especially strong on his way to winning the Dauphine--besting Alberto Contador, no less--and would probably be a team leader if he rode for a team that didn't include Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, and Andreas Klöden. It's too bad he'll be doing work for the old men, because I think he'd fly on his own.
Bradley Wiggins sneaked his way into fourth place last year, but I doubt he'll repeat that success. Now that he's seen as a threat, he'll be marked a little closer. I expect he'll finish near the bottom of the top ten along with his former teammate Christian Vande Velde, who I think is fighting too many injuries and too much downtime to better his 4th place finish in 2008.
I expect Michael Rogers to place in the top ten, also towards the bottom. He looked strong at the Tour of California, which he won, but that's no Grand Tour.
Denis Menchov, who some tout as a favorite due to previous performances, has spent most of the season invisible. I don't expect that to change at the Tour. If he finishes in the top thirty, I'll be surprised.
As much as I like Vladimir Karpets, I don't think he has a chance to place any higher than 15th. I only mentioned him because of my--as the Sport's Guy would call it--Man Crush.
Carlos Sastre would normally be a factor--he's a strong climber with a decent time trial, not to mention he's a previous winner--but he's coming off some pretty serious back trouble, and with that in mind, I don't really see him doing much. I expect him to limp in around 15th or so.
Luis Leon Sanchez, filling in for the banned Alejandro Valverde, is great in week-long stage races, but hasn't prospered in three-week races. He might squeak into the top ten, but it will be a close thing.
Another ride who might squeak into the top ten is Damiano Cunego. A while back, he was proclaimed to be the Next Big Thing in stage racing--winning the Giro d'Italia helped that claim. Since then, he hasn't shown himself to be so. He's a strong rider, but only strong enough to crack the top ten, if that.
The Other Classifications:
Green Jersey: Tyler Farrar
If you only examine last season, you would have to write Mark Cavendish's name down as the shoo-in favorite. He's been plagued with multiple woes this season, alas--everything from bad dentistry to ill-timed crashes. It's hard to say how good his form really is, because he's hardly raced and he had a hard crash at the Tour de Suisse.
Personally, I think the pressure on Cavendish is too high and that he is suffering from the lack of early season training, not to mention the bumps and bruises from his crash in Switzerland. I think he'll be lucky to finish the Tour, much less win the Green Jersey.
Hushovd has likewise been challenged by injuries and lack of training. I'm sure he'll try to animate things, and I look forward to seeing him in his champion of Norway jersey, but I don't think he'll have what it takes to bring the Green Jersey home for the third time.
Oscar Freire will be in the mix too, but he's always been a hit-or-miss rider, and you need more consistency than that to win the sprint points classification. I know he's done it before, but that was more through attrition than consistency.
Boonen is out of the mix, thanks to the same crash that affected--and was pretty much caused by--Cavendish. That leaves Tyler Farrar. He's been very consistent and very strong all season. If Cavendish isn't at full strength, I think this classification is Tyler's all the way.
Polka Dot Jersey: Egoi Martinez
The Polka Dot Jersey for the King of the Mountains is always a hard one to call, and this year is no exception. There are plenty of early points on the big mountain stages that non-GC contenders can pick up without affecting the larger race. I figure every Frenchman with the least bit of climbing ability will be going after these points, especially Thomas Voeckler (yes, he's French), Jerome Pineau, and Remy Di Gregario. I've been burned by Di Gregario too many times to pick him, and Voeckler burns too many matches trying for stage wins to be a real contender. Pineau just doesn't inspire any confidence in me at all.
I think that with so many points available in the Pyrenees, a Spanish climber has got to be the guy for the Polka Dots. Since it's not September, Sami Sanchez won't be doing anything great, which means Euskatel won't have to do any work to defend his position. That will leave Martinez free to chase points, and maybe even pick up a stage win along the way. The Basque fans are certainly frothing at the mouth when they consider the prospect.
White Jersey: Andy Schleck
Even though I don't think Schleck is on his best form, there really isn't anyone to match him. Tony Martin might do something big, but he really faltered on the high mountains last year, and I don't see this year going much better for him. Roman Kreuziger could be in contention, but since he's on Liquigas I think he'll be working to defend the position of Basso and won't be able to ride for himself. If things go poorly for the team, though, maybe they'll fight for White and forget about Basso. That would shake things up a little in this competition
As the days tick over, I like to pick who I think will win individual stages, too. We'll start with tomorrow's Prologue:
Prologue-Rotterdam 8.9km: Fabian Cancellara
The prologue is flat, not technical, and the weather is supposed to be windy with patches of rain. With the wind, lighter riders like Contador and Leipheimer will get buffeted about. The parcours suits a heavy rider with a ton of power, and no one fits that description better than Cancellara.
Tony Martin is another heavy rider with a ton of power, and I'm sure he'll be in the mix. With patchy rain in the forecast, the road conditions could affect the outcome more than anything else. It would be shame if the weather determined the winner, but it happens sometimes.
In my dream of dreams, George Hincapie wins the stage. He's a big, powerful rider who thrives in poor weather. He's placed highly in prologues before--he was third in London in 2007--and with a little bit of luck, he could pull it off.
But all things being equal, this is Cancellara's race to lose.
In what has become an annual tradition for me, I will make my race prognostications.
The Yellow Jersey:
My Podium Prediction
1. Alberto Contador
2. Ivan Basso
3. Cadel Evans
Contador is the overwhelming favorite, and with good reason: no one can out-climb him and almost no one can out time trial him. How do you beat that guy? There are a few minor points in his disfavor, however.
One, his team isn't nearly as strong this year as they were last year. If they need to defend Contador's position, they could struggle.
Two, the cobblestones on Stage 3 could take him out of contention. Sure, he's been training with Peter Van Petegem, but he's never raced on cobbles, and he's not suited for them. Ask Iban Mayo what can happen when a skinny Spanish climber hits the pavé at 50 kph.
Three, Alexander Vinokourev is on his team. When that guy's around anything can happen.
Contador failed to impress me at the Dauphiné, but that's a much shorter race, and he's the type of rider who is still really strong in the third week of a Grand Tour. I still think he's the best choice to take top honors, but I don't think he's as strong as he was last year.
Basso looked really good in winning the Giro, and I think he has the second strongest team for riding the Tour (after RadioShack). He's not quite as strong as he was in his "intending to dope" days, but neither is most anybody else. If he can make the selection in the high mountains and hang tough in the ITT, he has a definite shot to podium.
Evans doesn't have much help in the high mountains, but he's got a good team for making the pace when it's flatter and for getting him through the cobbles. Except for a brief fling with Chris Horner, he's never had much help in the mountains, so he's used to getting isolated and hanging onto wheels. His time trialing is good, and he should come in ahead of whichever Schleck brother is leading up the Saxo Bank team.
Speaking of the Saxo Bank boys, I think they're making a mistake in throwing their weight behind Andy Schleck when his brother Fränk is riding better. This year, I really haven't seen Andy do much when it gets steep except drift out of the back of the pack. I imagine he's been working on his time trialing--he did just when his national title--and maybe that's affected his climbing. Be that as it may, I expect Fränk to be wearing the mantle of leadership at Saxo Bank by the final week.
RadioShack has so many strong riders, I could easily see them placing five riders in the top ten. I don't think they have anyone who can win it, though. (Sorry, Lance.) Jani Brajkovic looked especially strong on his way to winning the Dauphine--besting Alberto Contador, no less--and would probably be a team leader if he rode for a team that didn't include Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, and Andreas Klöden. It's too bad he'll be doing work for the old men, because I think he'd fly on his own.
Bradley Wiggins sneaked his way into fourth place last year, but I doubt he'll repeat that success. Now that he's seen as a threat, he'll be marked a little closer. I expect he'll finish near the bottom of the top ten along with his former teammate Christian Vande Velde, who I think is fighting too many injuries and too much downtime to better his 4th place finish in 2008.
I expect Michael Rogers to place in the top ten, also towards the bottom. He looked strong at the Tour of California, which he won, but that's no Grand Tour.
Denis Menchov, who some tout as a favorite due to previous performances, has spent most of the season invisible. I don't expect that to change at the Tour. If he finishes in the top thirty, I'll be surprised.
As much as I like Vladimir Karpets, I don't think he has a chance to place any higher than 15th. I only mentioned him because of my--as the Sport's Guy would call it--Man Crush.
Carlos Sastre would normally be a factor--he's a strong climber with a decent time trial, not to mention he's a previous winner--but he's coming off some pretty serious back trouble, and with that in mind, I don't really see him doing much. I expect him to limp in around 15th or so.
Luis Leon Sanchez, filling in for the banned Alejandro Valverde, is great in week-long stage races, but hasn't prospered in three-week races. He might squeak into the top ten, but it will be a close thing.
Another ride who might squeak into the top ten is Damiano Cunego. A while back, he was proclaimed to be the Next Big Thing in stage racing--winning the Giro d'Italia helped that claim. Since then, he hasn't shown himself to be so. He's a strong rider, but only strong enough to crack the top ten, if that.
The Other Classifications:
Green Jersey: Tyler Farrar
If you only examine last season, you would have to write Mark Cavendish's name down as the shoo-in favorite. He's been plagued with multiple woes this season, alas--everything from bad dentistry to ill-timed crashes. It's hard to say how good his form really is, because he's hardly raced and he had a hard crash at the Tour de Suisse.
Personally, I think the pressure on Cavendish is too high and that he is suffering from the lack of early season training, not to mention the bumps and bruises from his crash in Switzerland. I think he'll be lucky to finish the Tour, much less win the Green Jersey.
Hushovd has likewise been challenged by injuries and lack of training. I'm sure he'll try to animate things, and I look forward to seeing him in his champion of Norway jersey, but I don't think he'll have what it takes to bring the Green Jersey home for the third time.
Oscar Freire will be in the mix too, but he's always been a hit-or-miss rider, and you need more consistency than that to win the sprint points classification. I know he's done it before, but that was more through attrition than consistency.
Boonen is out of the mix, thanks to the same crash that affected--and was pretty much caused by--Cavendish. That leaves Tyler Farrar. He's been very consistent and very strong all season. If Cavendish isn't at full strength, I think this classification is Tyler's all the way.
Polka Dot Jersey: Egoi Martinez
The Polka Dot Jersey for the King of the Mountains is always a hard one to call, and this year is no exception. There are plenty of early points on the big mountain stages that non-GC contenders can pick up without affecting the larger race. I figure every Frenchman with the least bit of climbing ability will be going after these points, especially Thomas Voeckler (yes, he's French), Jerome Pineau, and Remy Di Gregario. I've been burned by Di Gregario too many times to pick him, and Voeckler burns too many matches trying for stage wins to be a real contender. Pineau just doesn't inspire any confidence in me at all.
I think that with so many points available in the Pyrenees, a Spanish climber has got to be the guy for the Polka Dots. Since it's not September, Sami Sanchez won't be doing anything great, which means Euskatel won't have to do any work to defend his position. That will leave Martinez free to chase points, and maybe even pick up a stage win along the way. The Basque fans are certainly frothing at the mouth when they consider the prospect.
White Jersey: Andy Schleck
Even though I don't think Schleck is on his best form, there really isn't anyone to match him. Tony Martin might do something big, but he really faltered on the high mountains last year, and I don't see this year going much better for him. Roman Kreuziger could be in contention, but since he's on Liquigas I think he'll be working to defend the position of Basso and won't be able to ride for himself. If things go poorly for the team, though, maybe they'll fight for White and forget about Basso. That would shake things up a little in this competition
As the days tick over, I like to pick who I think will win individual stages, too. We'll start with tomorrow's Prologue:
Prologue-Rotterdam 8.9km: Fabian Cancellara
The prologue is flat, not technical, and the weather is supposed to be windy with patches of rain. With the wind, lighter riders like Contador and Leipheimer will get buffeted about. The parcours suits a heavy rider with a ton of power, and no one fits that description better than Cancellara.
Tony Martin is another heavy rider with a ton of power, and I'm sure he'll be in the mix. With patchy rain in the forecast, the road conditions could affect the outcome more than anything else. It would be shame if the weather determined the winner, but it happens sometimes.
In my dream of dreams, George Hincapie wins the stage. He's a big, powerful rider who thrives in poor weather. He's placed highly in prologues before--he was third in London in 2007--and with a little bit of luck, he could pull it off.
But all things being equal, this is Cancellara's race to lose.