What will happen on 5 February at my trial in the Supreme Court?
On 5 February, Supreme Court of Azerbaijan will review for the 4th (!) time the sentence which had kept me behind bars for more than five and a half years.
I am not going to consider fantasy scenarios, such as acquittal. One can talk only about what is realistic to expect of the authorities and about consequences of those decisions.
Option One
Let me start with the most positive scenario, of the realistic ones. The court may suddenly “recall” that at the time of arrest the authorities had charged me with less serious crimes, and that only a few months later -- when they calmed down local reactions and sorted out the international no-response -- they charged me with a serious crime.
In other words, the initial charge including articles 315.2 and 233 of the Criminal Code had been replaced by a new one including articles 315.2 and 220.1.
If it returns to the original charge, the Supreme Court could sentence me to 5,5 years of prison and 6 moths of conditional punishment. That would total 6 years expiring exactly on 5 February.
Automatically, that would end the current restrictions, under which every 10 days I sign a registry at the Probation Service, and lift the ban on travelling abroad.
However, after the end of punishment term for less serious crimes a two-year “convict” status is attached to any former prisoner. This status would formally prohibit me to stand as a candidate at any elections before February 2020.
This is tolerable, unless early elections are called, because the next parliamentary elections are scheduled to November 2020.
Yet, the court has an opportunity to remove the post-term “convict” status right on the spot. I have served my term in a “reinforced regime prison for serious crimes.” If compared, the regime of prisons for those convicted of less serious crimes is slightly liberal. The difference could be used as a formal and logical ground for removing the “convict” status right on 5 February.
In that case, I would qualify for nomination in early elections as well.
It is well known that due to non-execution of the decision of the European Court of Human Rights on my case, the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe has initiated the procedure against Azerbaijani authorities in the Grand Chamber of the European Court, under Article 46.4 of the European Convention of Human Rights.
Although the scenario described above, is not expected to affect the upcoming judgment of the Grand Chamber, it may soften the attitude of the political body of the Council of Europe - the Committee of Ministers - to the question of how the judgment should be applied.
Option Two
The Supreme Court upholds the decision of the Court of Appeal. My status does not change: till August 2020 I continue to register every 10 days in the Probation Service, and I cannot travel outside the country. Most importantly, I stay banned from elections till August 2026.
At the Committee of Ministers that will undoubtedly have negative political consequences for the ruling regime of Azerbaijan regarding the application of the upcoming judgment of the Grand Chamber on Article 46.4.
Other consequences I do not discuss yet.
Option Three
The Supreme Court sends me back to prison. Consequences of such a step I refuse to consider here, because they are unpredictable.