A couple of random thoughts
I realize it's been a while. Too long in fact. I don't have a good excuse, so I won't make one up.
1 - Depending on the likelihood of this story, summer of 2014 in Cooperstown could be a who's who of pitchers from the 90's.
Let's start with the obvious. Greg Maddux has been hanging around to get to 350. He's not capable of getting past the 7th inning anymore, and the Padres (his hometown team) are terrible, and not likely to immediately improve. His HoF credentials are beyond reproach, and will be a shoo-in first ballot HoFer.
Right next to him on that stage will likely be Tom Glavine. Also owning more than 300 W's, and also likely to retire at the end of this season, there will be a nice symmetry to his entering the Hall with Maddux.
You can't mention those two without adding John Smoltz. Clearly his Wins total pales in comparisson, but the whole of his accomplishments don't. Only Dennis Eckersley would scoff at his combined total of saves and wins. Only Randy Johnson has more K's amongst his peer pitchers (RC doesn't count). So combine those credentials with the necessity of MadduxGlavineSmoltz entering the HoF at the same time, and he's likely a first ballot guy. He's currently battling shoulder trouble, and has acknowledged that he has probably started his last major league game. A retirement at the end of 2008 seems likely.
Then there's the strikeout king of the generation. Randy Johnson will be 44 by the end of season. He has been effective, but not dominant this season, and has battled his own injury issues over the last few years. While he certainly could continue beyond the end of the year, he's only under contract through the end of 2008. His mid 4's ERA and declining K numbers indicate that the end of the line is likely near for Randy Johnson.
So can you imagine if Pedro leaves the game at the end of the year as well? That class will have over 16,000 strikeouts and over 1300 wins. Wow.
2 - My David Ortiz is done rant....
I've always thought of Ortiz as being a lot like Mo Vaughn. The immediate paralells are obvious. They're both left-handed-hitting, heavy-set, Red Sox first-basemen. What I didn't realize was that their career paths were eerily similar as well.
Mo Vaughn turned 27 in December 1994. At that point, he had 72 major league home-runs in 1507 ABs. David Ortiz turned 27 in December 2002. At that time, he had 58 major league home-runs in 1477 ABs.
And then they turned it on. Over the next 5 years ('95 through '99, opening day age 27 through 31), Mo Vaughn's average season featured a .313 batting average, 0.956 OPS, with 38 HRs and 118 RBIs. For '03 athrough '07 (again 27 through 31), Ortiz' average season was a .302 batting average, 1.015 OPS, with 42 HRs and 128 RBIs. In their primes, both players were high on the list of feared middle-of-the-order hitters.
And that's all the data we have on Ortiz. Entering this year, he's a career .289 hitter, with 266 HRs in 4,215 ABs. At the same time 8 years ago, Vaughn was a career .301 hitter, with 263 HRs in 4,352 major league ABs. Yes. At age 32, they're only 3 HR's apart.
So how did Mo do in 2000? Well that was his second year in Anaheim. His batting average dropped a little (.272 - his worst season since '92) but he still hit 36 HRs and drove in 117 runs. Still a very productive middle-of-the-order hitter.
And then it all went south.
He missed the entire 2001 season with a biceps injury. In 2002, he struggled with weight problems, but still hit 26 HRs. His career would end the following season due to a degenerative knee condition. After turning 32, Mo Vaughn only hit 65 more HR's.
The most disturbing part of that last paragraph to Sox fans is the mention of a "knee condition." Ortiz had to have off-season surgery to repair damaged catrilage in his knee. He says he feels fine, but given his start, you have to wonder if the knee is 100%.
I don't expect Ortiz' decline to start in ernest this year. Mo had a 36 HR year after turning 32. Ortiz should get to the 35 HR plateau for a 5th year in a row, but that will likely be accompanied by a drop in batting average. But given their similairities (in both girth and production), it wouldn't be surprising to see his numbers decline quickly after this season.
1 - Depending on the likelihood of this story, summer of 2014 in Cooperstown could be a who's who of pitchers from the 90's.
Let's start with the obvious. Greg Maddux has been hanging around to get to 350. He's not capable of getting past the 7th inning anymore, and the Padres (his hometown team) are terrible, and not likely to immediately improve. His HoF credentials are beyond reproach, and will be a shoo-in first ballot HoFer.
Right next to him on that stage will likely be Tom Glavine. Also owning more than 300 W's, and also likely to retire at the end of this season, there will be a nice symmetry to his entering the Hall with Maddux.
You can't mention those two without adding John Smoltz. Clearly his Wins total pales in comparisson, but the whole of his accomplishments don't. Only Dennis Eckersley would scoff at his combined total of saves and wins. Only Randy Johnson has more K's amongst his peer pitchers (RC doesn't count). So combine those credentials with the necessity of MadduxGlavineSmoltz entering the HoF at the same time, and he's likely a first ballot guy. He's currently battling shoulder trouble, and has acknowledged that he has probably started his last major league game. A retirement at the end of 2008 seems likely.
Then there's the strikeout king of the generation. Randy Johnson will be 44 by the end of season. He has been effective, but not dominant this season, and has battled his own injury issues over the last few years. While he certainly could continue beyond the end of the year, he's only under contract through the end of 2008. His mid 4's ERA and declining K numbers indicate that the end of the line is likely near for Randy Johnson.
So can you imagine if Pedro leaves the game at the end of the year as well? That class will have over 16,000 strikeouts and over 1300 wins. Wow.
2 - My David Ortiz is done rant....
I've always thought of Ortiz as being a lot like Mo Vaughn. The immediate paralells are obvious. They're both left-handed-hitting, heavy-set, Red Sox first-basemen. What I didn't realize was that their career paths were eerily similar as well.
Mo Vaughn turned 27 in December 1994. At that point, he had 72 major league home-runs in 1507 ABs. David Ortiz turned 27 in December 2002. At that time, he had 58 major league home-runs in 1477 ABs.
And then they turned it on. Over the next 5 years ('95 through '99, opening day age 27 through 31), Mo Vaughn's average season featured a .313 batting average, 0.956 OPS, with 38 HRs and 118 RBIs. For '03 athrough '07 (again 27 through 31), Ortiz' average season was a .302 batting average, 1.015 OPS, with 42 HRs and 128 RBIs. In their primes, both players were high on the list of feared middle-of-the-order hitters.
And that's all the data we have on Ortiz. Entering this year, he's a career .289 hitter, with 266 HRs in 4,215 ABs. At the same time 8 years ago, Vaughn was a career .301 hitter, with 263 HRs in 4,352 major league ABs. Yes. At age 32, they're only 3 HR's apart.
So how did Mo do in 2000? Well that was his second year in Anaheim. His batting average dropped a little (.272 - his worst season since '92) but he still hit 36 HRs and drove in 117 runs. Still a very productive middle-of-the-order hitter.
And then it all went south.
He missed the entire 2001 season with a biceps injury. In 2002, he struggled with weight problems, but still hit 26 HRs. His career would end the following season due to a degenerative knee condition. After turning 32, Mo Vaughn only hit 65 more HR's.
The most disturbing part of that last paragraph to Sox fans is the mention of a "knee condition." Ortiz had to have off-season surgery to repair damaged catrilage in his knee. He says he feels fine, but given his start, you have to wonder if the knee is 100%.
I don't expect Ortiz' decline to start in ernest this year. Mo had a 36 HR year after turning 32. Ortiz should get to the 35 HR plateau for a 5th year in a row, but that will likely be accompanied by a drop in batting average. But given their similairities (in both girth and production), it wouldn't be surprising to see his numbers decline quickly after this season.