10 things I think about Europe
Politics again. Sorry.
The debate on Europe is driving me mad, characterised as it is by myths and subjectivity and opportunism masquerading as facts and imperatives. I'm sitting on my hands watching each side characterise the other as hateful scare-mongerers while appearing blind to the excesses of their own camp.
So to get it out of my system, here are some things I believe about Europe. Like everyone else, some of these are evidence-based, and some just are:
1) The principle of being in Europe is more important than the problems with Europe. Joining with others in principles and endeavours that transcend individual nations is positive, and acts as a check on individual nations.
2) Europe is not something which is 'done to us', it's a collaboration we participate in, and help shape. We won't always get our own way - neither will anyone else - but we have a strong voice. We shape the laws. We win exemptions.
3) It is nonsense to say that World War Three looms imminently if we leave the EU (aka "Stay Off My Side, David Cameron"). It is not nonsense to say that the history of Europe prior to the creation of the EU was one of near-constant conflict and war, and that participating in the EU has been one of a number of key reasons why we have seen an era of much greater peace and stability. Unchecked separatism and nationalism can easily and rapidly sow the seeds of conflict. Even now the EU is straining against an upsurge in extreme right wing political parties and anti-immigrant sentiment.
4) Our locally elected MPs go to the central parliament where they have a local voice but where local interests are balanced against wider ones, and the elected democratic parliament is supported by a vast bureaucracy of unelected officials. But enough about the UK. Ahem.
5) Europe is almost certainly rife with compromise and inefficiency, but it is not actually Evil (like, say, FIFA) and is capable of being reformed. If we do rightly focus on European inefficiency we shouldn't cherry pick examples while ignoring the inefficiency inherent in our own political machinery.
6) EU membership is a net cost to the UK in terms of monies directly paid and directly received. On that level it's a drain on our resources. But membership of the EU only has to make the most marginal percentage improvement in the UK economic growth for the gain, year by year, to vastly outweigh the cost. Does it do that? It seems highly likely, but I can't say for certain. At the very least it's a low risk investment with the potential for an extremely high return.
7) Putting aside the fact that European migrants provably contribute more to our economy than they take out, leaving the EU might (unless we retain free movement) reduce a chunk of net migration. On that level, leaving the EU would help us "regain control" of our borders. But it would by no means be a magic bullet that would bring net migration down to zero.
8) There are clear and to some extent understandable worries about how immigration is changing our culture, a fear of cultural miscegenation in which national distinctiveness is perceived to be lost, or changed unrecognisably. But we easily forget that our perception of 'Britishness' has changed over time. Second and third generation immigrants aren't generally perceived as immigrants at all. They're just British. If they're white (like that extremely suspicious foreign influence Rick Stein) mainstream opinion doesn't give them a second glance. Our sense of Britishness has always accommodated and been enriched by infusions from other places.
9) The 'Out' campaign is not intrinsically racist, and many who are in favour of leaving the EU are not driven by immigration. But I think one consequence of a 'Brexit' will be to increase the UK's isolationism and feed racist views. I'd love to say that slightly curbing immigration would rob racism of oxygen, but in my view the tougher we talk and act on immigration the more strident and polarised our anti-immigration rhetoric becomes. Support for UKIP is often highest in the areas of lowest immigration, and right-wing debate on immigration is not notable for its relationship to facts. If we board up the windows, we'll only become obsessed with what's under the floorboards.
10) Whether we stay or leave, we'll never know for sure whether that decision had a causal effect on our future prosperity, or lack of it. But politicians will cheerfully blame everything on that decision. And it will be So. Damn. Aggravating.
(Follow-up blog)