(no subject)
So here's the thing that I think is overlooked or unknown back home in the US. There will not be war with North Korea unless they actually invade or bomb the mainland (not an island out in contested waters that is basically part of the DMZ, but the actual mainland) because no one wants North Korea. The cost of rebuilding the country, even before you factor in war damage, is astronomic. The SK government doesn't want to reunify anymore, and the newer generations of SK don't want reunification either. The people of North Korea are malnourished, uneducated, and brainwashed in such a way that rehabilitating those who defect takes many years and still they have difficulty functioning in modern society. (This is not to insult the NK citizens, but the level of brainwashing they face is almost beyond comprehension.) I see NK refugees sometimes, and it's usually easy to tell. If you see a guy who is 4'9" and clearly doesn't understand the proper way to dress himself for SK society, he's almost certainly a refugee.
In addition to the insane cost of bringing NK up to livable standards, the fact is that the existence of NK is very convenient to the other 3 involved parties: SK, the US, and China. For all military purposes (and a great deal of cultural purposes as well), SK might as well be part of the US. They aren't just an ally in the way that the UK is, they're far more than that. We have a huge military force permanently stationed here. Most SK citizens remember when SK was a very poor country, living in the economic shadow of then-prosperous NK, and the US was a big factor in building them up to their current first-world prosperity. So if NK falls, then we have the problem that the US and China are essentially sharing a border. None of these three countries want that. It's convenient to everyone that there's a buffer zone between SK and China, and it's convenient to China that said buffer zone is run by an absolute madman who is so clearly batshit insane that no one can entirely blame China for his actions.
Let's say there's a war, and in this scenario, China stays out of it completely. Now there's a reunification (which destroys the SK economy) and, well, look at that, US military bases are right across the river from China. Or we have a war and, to prevent NK from being wiped out in about 3 days, China has to step in and, oops, now China is at war with the US!
Is war possible? Of course, especially with Kim-Jong Il wanting to flex his military power before he hands the throne over to his son, and also because he's just plain crazier than a shithouse rat. But I keep getting emails from people back home, or seeing things on Facebook, about how WW3 is just around the corner, and it's ridiculous. WW3 is no closer than it ever was. If NK commits suicide by attacking Seoul, there will be war. If not, there won't be. No one has anything to gain by a war. And, unless China stepped in to help out, it would be a very short war. Very bloody, but very short. When your soldiers are starving and will defect at the slightest opportunity (to the point where you can't train an air force because every time a guy gets in the cockpit he heads over the border to SK and never comes back), you're not going to last very long. Especially considering that the SK government has a very compelling financial incentive to make sure that there are as few North Koreans to rehabilitate as possible.
I'm not an expert on North Korea, or South Korea, or geopolitics, or anything like that. I'm just saying that, as someone who is temporarily living in SK, has read a decent amount about SK/NK/etc, and who works every day with South Koreans, I think the hype I'm seeing from back home is ridiculous to the point of irresponsibility.
In addition to the insane cost of bringing NK up to livable standards, the fact is that the existence of NK is very convenient to the other 3 involved parties: SK, the US, and China. For all military purposes (and a great deal of cultural purposes as well), SK might as well be part of the US. They aren't just an ally in the way that the UK is, they're far more than that. We have a huge military force permanently stationed here. Most SK citizens remember when SK was a very poor country, living in the economic shadow of then-prosperous NK, and the US was a big factor in building them up to their current first-world prosperity. So if NK falls, then we have the problem that the US and China are essentially sharing a border. None of these three countries want that. It's convenient to everyone that there's a buffer zone between SK and China, and it's convenient to China that said buffer zone is run by an absolute madman who is so clearly batshit insane that no one can entirely blame China for his actions.
Let's say there's a war, and in this scenario, China stays out of it completely. Now there's a reunification (which destroys the SK economy) and, well, look at that, US military bases are right across the river from China. Or we have a war and, to prevent NK from being wiped out in about 3 days, China has to step in and, oops, now China is at war with the US!
Is war possible? Of course, especially with Kim-Jong Il wanting to flex his military power before he hands the throne over to his son, and also because he's just plain crazier than a shithouse rat. But I keep getting emails from people back home, or seeing things on Facebook, about how WW3 is just around the corner, and it's ridiculous. WW3 is no closer than it ever was. If NK commits suicide by attacking Seoul, there will be war. If not, there won't be. No one has anything to gain by a war. And, unless China stepped in to help out, it would be a very short war. Very bloody, but very short. When your soldiers are starving and will defect at the slightest opportunity (to the point where you can't train an air force because every time a guy gets in the cockpit he heads over the border to SK and never comes back), you're not going to last very long. Especially considering that the SK government has a very compelling financial incentive to make sure that there are as few North Koreans to rehabilitate as possible.
I'm not an expert on North Korea, or South Korea, or geopolitics, or anything like that. I'm just saying that, as someone who is temporarily living in SK, has read a decent amount about SK/NK/etc, and who works every day with South Koreans, I think the hype I'm seeing from back home is ridiculous to the point of irresponsibility.