MBA Math -- not for ordinary citizens
According to the BBC "A containment cap on a ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico is now funnelling off 10,000 barrels of oil a day, BP's chief executive Tony Hayward says.
The amount has risen since Saturday, and implies more than half the estimated 12,000 to 19,000 barrels leaking each day is now being captured."
Further on in the article, BP CEO Hayward is quoted as saying: "We're going to clean-up the oil, we're going to remediate any environmental damage and we are going to return the Gulf coast to the position it was in prior to this event. That's an absolute commitment, we will be there long after the media has gone, making good on our promises."
Meanwhile, over at Daily Kos, Giles Goat Boy has done a more succinct analysis of the math than I could come up with. So, what we know is: The leak is spilling 12,000, or 19,000, or 25,000 barrels a day of crude oil into the gulf. The "cap" is capturing either 6,000 barrels a day or 10,000 barrels a day of the raw oil.
No wonder we're all confused.
From what I've seen so far, the BP fudge factor is about ten-fold, the government fudge factor is about five-fold, and the media fudge factor is about two-fold when trying to determine the actual spill or recovery rate. ("Fudge" seems appropriate, doesn't it?)
It's also safe to assume the worst if they give a range.
That means that the actual spill rate is 25,000 x 10 x 5 x 2, or 2.5 million barrels a day, and the recovery rate is 6,000 / 10 / 5 / 2, or 60 barrels a day.
I think he's wrong here in adding in all the fudge factors. I think that the BBC is accurately reporting what Hayward said. So we've got 25,000 x 2 (because that's the BBC's estimate of the high end of the leak range or 50,000 barrels/day flowing into the Gulf and 6,000 / 10 or 600 being recovered (because that's BP's estimate as quoted)
Either way, we're still screwed.
Then there's BP's promise of sticking around until the Gulf is restored to "the position it was in prior to this event". You know that's not going to happen. They'll stick around after the media's gone for a while and then gradually slip away a little at a time hoping no one will notice.
And while we're on the subject of cleanup, you might want to take a look at this excellent, but somewhat F-bombed editorial. The money shot from the article is this:
From Miscellaneous Apart from mis-captioning the catch basins (according to the article, they should be "fucking catch basins") it's a very clear demonstration of how oil booms work. Now go google some images. You'll see lots like the one on the right, and none like the one on the left.
This nice picture shows a boom as per the right side of the above graphic, working nicely. But the thing to note is it's working in a flat calm. Get any sort of wave action going on and oil is going to go over or under the boom. Now, what is the Gulf of Mexico known for, why fucking hurricanes of course. And when does hurricane season start? That would be last week: June 1.
So, what kind of hurricane season do the experts think we'll have this year? Well NOAA says: NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
A little further down the article it gives some numbers:We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.
That's going to make cleanup a bitch. And give BP an out. "That's not our fault -- that's hurricane damage." Just watch them weasel out of it.
In short: We're fucking screwed.
The amount has risen since Saturday, and implies more than half the estimated 12,000 to 19,000 barrels leaking each day is now being captured."
Further on in the article, BP CEO Hayward is quoted as saying: "We're going to clean-up the oil, we're going to remediate any environmental damage and we are going to return the Gulf coast to the position it was in prior to this event. That's an absolute commitment, we will be there long after the media has gone, making good on our promises."
Meanwhile, over at Daily Kos, Giles Goat Boy has done a more succinct analysis of the math than I could come up with. So, what we know is: The leak is spilling 12,000, or 19,000, or 25,000 barrels a day of crude oil into the gulf. The "cap" is capturing either 6,000 barrels a day or 10,000 barrels a day of the raw oil.
No wonder we're all confused.
From what I've seen so far, the BP fudge factor is about ten-fold, the government fudge factor is about five-fold, and the media fudge factor is about two-fold when trying to determine the actual spill or recovery rate. ("Fudge" seems appropriate, doesn't it?)
It's also safe to assume the worst if they give a range.
That means that the actual spill rate is 25,000 x 10 x 5 x 2, or 2.5 million barrels a day, and the recovery rate is 6,000 / 10 / 5 / 2, or 60 barrels a day.
I think he's wrong here in adding in all the fudge factors. I think that the BBC is accurately reporting what Hayward said. So we've got 25,000 x 2 (because that's the BBC's estimate of the high end of the leak range or 50,000 barrels/day flowing into the Gulf and 6,000 / 10 or 600 being recovered (because that's BP's estimate as quoted)
Either way, we're still screwed.
Then there's BP's promise of sticking around until the Gulf is restored to "the position it was in prior to this event". You know that's not going to happen. They'll stick around after the media's gone for a while and then gradually slip away a little at a time hoping no one will notice.
And while we're on the subject of cleanup, you might want to take a look at this excellent, but somewhat F-bombed editorial. The money shot from the article is this:
From Miscellaneous Apart from mis-captioning the catch basins (according to the article, they should be "fucking catch basins") it's a very clear demonstration of how oil booms work. Now go google some images. You'll see lots like the one on the right, and none like the one on the left.
This nice picture shows a boom as per the right side of the above graphic, working nicely. But the thing to note is it's working in a flat calm. Get any sort of wave action going on and oil is going to go over or under the boom. Now, what is the Gulf of Mexico known for, why fucking hurricanes of course. And when does hurricane season start? That would be last week: June 1.
So, what kind of hurricane season do the experts think we'll have this year? Well NOAA says: NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
A little further down the article it gives some numbers:We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.
That's going to make cleanup a bitch. And give BP an out. "That's not our fault -- that's hurricane damage." Just watch them weasel out of it.
In short: We're fucking screwed.