talking weather, quick-freeze edition #mnwx
Ok folks, it's been a while since I've blogged, even a bit longer since I talked weather on here. But today seems to be a good day to get back started. Reason why? The warmup of the upcoming next few days will be coming to a crashing end Wednesday night into Thursday, if the latest indications hold.
So first things first, the next couple of days. Yes, after a couple of weeks where we were literally in a deep-freezer up here, we're up just short of the freezing mark today (saw as high as 28F/-2C so far in the Twin Cities metro), and are looking to be in the upper 30's to maybe near 40 (3-5C) Monday through Wednesday.
But unfortunately by the time Wednesday comes around, we are going to have to start looking west and especially southwest. Why? At this point, all the models are pointing to a low headed into Northern Ontario near Superior-North, while a lee-side system starts to develop in central Colorado. That lee-side cyclone will hook up with a strengthening front from the Superior-North system, and then the magic begins.
If the combination of the guidance and the ensembles hold, on Wednesday evening, the precipitation in east-central and southeastern Minnesota will actually start as some widely scattered rain and/or sleet showers, drizzle patches, and fog. But as we head into the early overnight hours, temperatures should fall below freezing, turning any precip to the ice variety. Heading into the early morning pre-dawn hours, if the models are close, that all switches over to a steadier light snow. And near the morning rush, it ain't going to look pretty with temps in the mid 20's and steady light snow.
The snow become steadier through the morning, and may be locally heavy at times. The snow then should fade in the mid afternoon in the southwest and by the end of the evening rush in the northeast. As for the temperature, it'll drop into the teens by midday and potentially into the mid single digits by the evening rush. As for what that means, potentially, a return of the ice roads like the metro saw in early 2014. I'm hoping that doesn't happen, and hoping this potential system changes between now and Wednesday night.
As for potential snow amounts what I can say is that there is looking to be a band of 6+" setting up about 80-120 miles behind the front connecting the northern Ontario low and the lee-side low that heads into southern Wisconsin. Unfortunately, looking 4-5days out, there's still not a totally unified solution on where exactly that is going to be. But there's enough evidence to say start watching this thing and be ready for whatever it may bring.
I'll update you tomorrow evening after work as the analyses aloft and at the surface bring a better initial snapshot, and the guidance starts to make its adjustments.
Cheers for now, but wishing I was in Austin for the 2018 American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, going on right now.