Всё идёт по плану: Replacement Migration - Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations (2001)
Department of Economic and Social Affairs - Population Division
United Nations projections indicate that
- over the next 50 years, the populations of virtually all countries of Europe as well as Japan
- will face population decline and population ageing.
- The new challenges of declining and ageing populations will
- require comprehensive reassessments of many established policies and programmes,
- including those relating to international migration.
Focusing on these 2 striking and critical population trends
- the report considers replacement migration for 8 low-fertility countries:
- France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, United Kingdom and United States
- and 2 regions (Europe and the European Union).
- Replacement migration refers to the international migration that a country would need
--- to offset population decline and population ageing
--- resulting from low fertility and mortality rates.
The Press Release is available in
- English (HTML) - French (HTML) - German (PDF)
- Japanese (PDF) - Russian (PDF) - Spanish (HTML)
Report Content
- Cover, Preface and Note
- Executive Summary (PDF): English - French - German - Russian
- Chapter 1 - Overview of the issues
- Chapter 2 - Literature review
- Chapter 3 - The Approach: Methodology and Assumptions
- Chapter 4 - Results
--- A. Overview
--- B. Country Results
----- France
----- Germany
----- Italy
----- Japan
----- Republic of Korea
----- Russian Federation
----- United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
----- United States of America
--- C. Regional Results
----- Europe
----- European Union
- Chapter 5 - Conclusions and Implications
- References
- Selected Bibliography
- Annex Tables
--- France
--- Germany
--- Italy
--- Japan
--- Republic of Korea
--- Russian Federation
--- United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
--- United States of America
--- Europe
--- European Union
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http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/migration/migration.htm
6. Russian Federation
(a) Past trends
- At a total fertility rate of 2.51 children per woman,
- fertility in the Russian Soviet Federal Socialist Republic in 1950-1955 was only slightly higher than the average fertility in Western Europe and Northern Europe.
- Its life expectancy at birth of 67.3 years in 1950-1955 was similar to the average for Western Europe.
- Fertility stayed above replacement levels until 1965, but
- dropped to 1.50 children per woman in the RF in 1990-1995 and
- to 1.35 in 1995-2000.
- Mortality levels have stagnated, or increased over much of the period since 1965,
- especially among adult males.
- As a result, the 1995-2000 life expectancy at birth of 66.6 years was lower than the 1950-1955 level.
- Nevertheless, the proportion of the population aged 65 years or older
--- increased from 6% in 1950 to 12% in 1995.
- The share of the population aged 15 to 64 years also increased slightly,
--- from 65% in 1950 to 67% in 1995.
- The potential support ratio, which was 10 persons aged 15-64 years for each person aged 65 or older in 1950, declined to 6 in 1995.
(b) Scenario I
- This scenario, which is the medium variant of the UN 1998 Revision, assumes that:
- 7.4 million net migrants would enter the Russian Federation between 1995 and 2050:
--- 2.0 million from 1995 to 2000,
--- 4.1 million from 2000 to 2025 and
--- 1.4 million from 2025 to 2050.
- As a result of low fertility, the population of the RF is projected to decline:
--- from 148.1 million in 1995 to 121.3 million in 2050.
- By 2050, 6% of the total population would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants
--- (the results of the 1998 UN projections are shown in the annex tables).
- The population aged 15-64 would increase slightly:
--- from 99.2 million in 1995 to 103.0 million in 2010, and
- then decline:
--- to 73.6 million by 2050.
- One quarter of the population of the RF in 2050 would be aged 65 years or older.
- Owing to the unevenness of the age structure,
--- the potential support ratio would decrease
--- from its level of 6 in 1995 to 5.0 in 2005 and
--- increase again after 2005 to 6 in 2010.
- After 2010, the potential support ratio would decline by more than half, to 2 by 2050.
(c) Scenario II
- It uses the fertility and mortality assumptions of the medium variant of the UN
1998 Revision
- but assumes zero migration after 1995.
- Under these conditions:
--- the population of the RF would decline faster than in Scenario I.
--- There will be 114.2 million people in 2050:
--- 7.1 million fewer than in Scenario I
- The number of persons aged 15-64 is also projected to start declining 5 years earlier than under Scenario I:
--- from 100.5 million in 2000 to 69.2 million in 2050.
- However, the share of the total population above age 65 would still be about 25% in 2050, and
- the potential support ratio would be 2 in that year.
(d) Scenario III
- It holds the population of Russia constant at its 1995 size of 148.1 million,
--- preventing it from declining further.
- In order to do so, 25 million net migrants would be needed between 2000 and
2050,
--- an average of 500,000 immigrants per year.
- By 2050, out of a total population of 148.1 million,
--- 33.9 million, or 23%, would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants
- By 2050 the potential support ratio would be 3.
(e) Scenario IV
- It keeps the size of the population aged 15-64 constant at its maximum of 100.5 million,
reached in 2000.
- To attain this, a total of 36 million net migrants would be needed from 2000 to 2050.
- The average net migration would need to be:
--- 91,000 per year between 2000 and 2010, and
--- 871,000 per year between 2010 and 2050.
- This scenario would result in:
--- a total population of 158 million in 2050, of which
--- 43.8 million, or 28%, would consist of post-1995 immigrants or their descendants
- The potential support ratio in 2050 would be 3.
(f) Scenario V
- It does not allow the potential support ratio to decrease below the value of 3.0.
- In order to achieve this:
--- no immigrants would be needed until 2035, and
--- 26.6 million immigrants would be needed between 2035 and 2050,
--- an average of 1.8 million per year during that period.
- By 2050, out of a total population of 143 million:
--- 29 million, or 20%, would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants
(g) Scenario VI
- It keeps the potential support ratio at its 1995 value of 5.62.
- A total of 253 million net immigrants would be needed between 2000 and 2050,
--- an overall average of 5.1 million per year.
- However, the average annual net migration required to maintain this ratio varies considerably over time,
- as 2 relatively small cohorts:
--- those born between 1940 and 1945 and
--- those born between 1965 and 1970
--- pass through their economically active years and into the 65 years or older group.
- In the period 2005-2010, the sharp decline in the number of persons aged 65 or older would require:
--- the emigration of some 3.6 million persons per year
--- to keep the potential support ratio constant.
- Immigration would then resume after 2010.
- Under this scenario, by 2050:
--- a total of 308 million persons, or 73% of Russia’s projected population of 422 million
--- would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants
(h) Additional considerations
- Between 1990 and 1995 international migration had a major impact on population growth in the RF
- An estimated 1.8 million persons migrated into Russia in this period,
- an average of 360,000 per year.
- While this volume of migration is comparable to the average levels required under scenarios I and III,
--- it is much lower than the 871,000 persons
--- that would be needed annually between 2010 and 2050 under scenario IV.
- It is also important to note that a large proportion of recent immigration into the RF
--- has been the result of the resettling of ethnic Russians,
--- who came from the other republics of the former Soviet Union.
- Figure 19 shows, for scenarios I, II, III and IV, the population of the RF in 2050:
--- indicating the share that is made up of post-1995 migrants and their descendants.
- The number of immigrants required in scenario VI is immensely larger than past experience,
--- more than 13 times the level recorded in 1990-1995.
- In the absence of migration, the figures show that:
--- it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the working-age in the RF to 66.8 years
--- to obtain a potential support ratio of 3.0 in 2050.
--- this would have to increase to about 73 years
--- in order to obtain in 2050 the same potential support ratio observed in 1995,
--- which was 5.6 persons of working-age per each older person past working-age.
- Increasing the activity rates of the population, if it were possible,
--- would only be a partial palliative to the decline in the support ratio due to ageing.
--- If the activity rates of all men and women aged 25 to 64 increased to 100% by 2050,
--- this would make up for only 30% of the loss in the active support ratio resulting from the ageing of the population