"Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country."

Feb 04, 2008 16:49

I'd like to preface this by stating - first off - that the overriding point of this post is this: If you are an American, and your state is holding a primary or caucus tomorrow, get out and make your voice be HEARD. [Vote early and vote often! ... Kidding, but still, VOTE ( Read more... )

rl: volunteerism, rl: vote, lj: flist, politics: president barack obama, rl: politics

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carminaburana February 5 2008, 00:22:07 UTC
I voted for Obama already despite my primary being tomorrow (mail in ballots RULE).
I really only have two objections to Hillary, but they are very policy specific. I think it's great that you cited Obama's health care plan. While you're at it, go take a look at Hillary's economic stimulus plan. It's kind of ridiculous and makes me want to call her up and be like, "yo Hill - fire your economic advisors for not properly instructing you on the difference between actual predatory lenders (to whom African Americans are not once, twice, or thrice, but FOUR times as likely as whites to fall victim, all else being equal) and the subprime loan problem, where a bunch of greedy people bought up property they knew they couldn't afford hoping to make a quick buck". They are two different issues and it does the real victims of predatory lending a tremendous disservice to combine the two.

As for Obama vs. Clinton on everything else, there is so little that we can in fact predict (including on how they'll do in the general election) and it's important to be careful. I honestly think it's really hard to predict political change with either candidate. There is a lot of institutional inertia with the presidency, so I think people tend to get their expectations REALLY high with presidential candidates.. I think we can begin to get a very small sense of how each candidate will interact with Congress. One of the most significant tools at the President's disposal is veto bargaining. As much as i mock his side career as a professional sexual harrasser of women, Bill Clinton was a MASTER at wielding the veto properly against a Republican-controlled Congress. So I disagree with you in that I can see Hillary being just as good. McCain is hard to predict - he might get along extremely well with Congress given his abilities to work with both parties. Obama will I think be fantastic at "going public", but not sure how he works as a negotiator. He could be great, but we don't have enough data points and I know that people like to cite his work in the state legislature, but that is not Congress an certainly not the presidency. I do think though that the ability to inspire voters is no mean feat and should not be undervalued. But policywise, all 3 (Clinton, Obama, and yes, even McCain - i mean there is a reason conservatives HATE him so much) are kind of hard to distinguish. And we can't really pretend to know at this point. I mean they are all Senators and you also have to discount a lot of their Senate voting once you take into consideration institutional rules and the effect of parties. You can't always extrapolate their sincere policy views from those votes. (i mean trying to measure Congressional ideological "ideal points" is one of the biggest industries in political science and no one has quite gotten it right yet and there's a reason for that)

Anyway, just two cents from an overly verbose political scientist.

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herowlness February 5 2008, 00:36:54 UTC
I'm not a political science expert by any means, and I really only have distinct memories of the Dubya years. I remember Clinton's presidency, but I can't remember policy details or how he wielded the veto, etc., so I do appreciate your thoughts on the subject.

I have no idea how Obama negotiates first-hand, obviously, and everything I've read is from members of the Senate who support his candidacy. So you won't hear bad things from them unless they're stupid. I know that the Statehouse is different from governing on a national level, but some of the issues they tackled during his time in the Illinois Senate, I think, are fairly impressive. Death penalty and racial profiling come to mind. Of course, I'm preaching to the choir, in a sense, since you support Obama already, but I guess my point is that while I understand that the Statehouse is not the equivalent of national experience, I wouldn't discount that, necessarily. Plus, his background in Constitutional Law is, I think, impressive. Especially given the current President's general disregard for parts of it. :\

Thanks for the opinion! :D

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carminaburana February 5 2008, 00:59:43 UTC
The choir here is definitely for Obama and i'm sure he and Hillary are different, but it's just so hard to know how given the info we have. As for con law, most law students are required to know it (and undergrad political science majors as well for the most part), so most politicians who have practiced law (including both Hillary and Obama) should have a background, otherwise they have no business holding a law degree. Of course, D-average Yalie Dubya is a totally different story. HAHAHA

Both Clinton and Obama have policy priorites that I support. Hillary really is the main reason why Plan B/morning after pill is now over-the-counter. Obama's work on racial profiling is very impressive. I guess for me, it came down to Obama's more liberal economic approach (Hillary is much more centrist in that respect). I also found his foreign policy ideas to be very very compelling. It's hard to know if Hillary's more hawklike approach is sincere or a ploy to overcome the prejudices many voters can often hold against women on defense issues. As much as I and other criticize her for it, she voted for the Iraq war because she had to and she isn't going to take that vote back. She has to look tough here. I've done a lot of research on female candidates campaigns and defense is one of the trickiest issues for a woman candidate, especially for the presidency because the president has the most decision-making power of all 3 branches w/r/t foreign policy. Congress is only responsible for basic oversight and providing the $$$.

In the end, Obama's ability to inspire and mobilize voters is his biggest selling point. I know conservatives and even evangelicals who support him. The Obama kool-aid is quite strong. HAHAHA

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herowlness February 5 2008, 01:16:18 UTC
That hawk-like explanation of Hillary's vote makes sense, and I can better understand why she made it. Still, I think Obama's point that he'll be better able to distinguish himself from McCain - should they end up as the nominees - is valid.

And, yeah, the Obama Kool-Aid fabulous. :D

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carminaburana February 5 2008, 01:19:20 UTC
Totally - I should have made that clearer in my post. Hillary and McCain are almost interchangeable, except his anger management problems are reportedly worse than hers and he is pro-life. HAHAHA Obama is very smart to point that out too, as he did in a lot of his recent speeches.

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herowlness February 5 2008, 01:22:23 UTC
I've been really impressed with some of his recent stumps. I mean, not that they've been bad before, but he's doing a good job of explain why HIM [versus Hillary] without resorting to personal insults. [Yes, Billy Boy, I'm looking at you.]

Something I've talked about with some people is the fact that Obama's Kool-Aid would likely expand the Democratic electorate to include some Republicans and Independents. Can you imagine a Republicans for Hillary group? Unless we count an Onion spoof, I'd have to go with no.

It would nice to have an election where we're not counting down to the last electoral vote again ....

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