Blah Blah Blah I'm a DPRK Watcher...
Blah Blah Blah the DPRK is about to fall Blah Blah Blah statistics showing that people in North Korea are poor and oppressed, just like that last time someone wrote an article like this Blah Blah Blah a recap of well known sparse facts about the DPRK and wild speculation Blah Blah Blah Currency reform Blah Blah Blah people there are terribly oppressed Blah Blah Blah look mom I'm an analyst!!!
People have been saying that the DPRK will fall probably since the day after WWII. People have short memories. What is rarely mentioned is just how much the DPRK has survived. The collapse of the USSR and the famine that followed in the 90's still left the regime intact and the North Korean military still the 4th largest in the world. (or as Travis put it the other day "the North Korean Military is like having the worlds best security system on the worlds shittiest car...")
North Koreans have endured two meals a day. Citizens have almost no free time as they are required to attend party functions and perform "volunteer" work on their days off. I once hear in an interview with a former teacher that her day wouldn't end until 9pm. The bottom line is that North Korean people are tough as nails, and propaganda of the machine so effective, and meaningful resistance so deadly that any predictions for the immediate collapse of the regime are both suspect and tired.
Here is what wishful thinkers often leave out:
1. China Will Never Let the DPRK Collapse. While analyst are rather fond of bringing up the same tired tales of economic woe, the completely ignored the large increases in DPRK-Chinese trade. China is interested in using North Korea as leverage against the US. There may also be value minerals like rare earth metals that China wants to corner. Ironically the DPRK has labor that is so cheap (indentured servitude to the state) that it maybe appeal to China.
2. South Korea Doesnt Want Reunification. Contrary to my own preconceived notions when I got here, Koreans don't what German style reunification. I would have argued that reunification would be cheaper than maintaining the most militarized border in the world, but mandatory service and US subsidy of the ROK military makes it arguably more cost effective to halfheartedly work to prop up the regime on the other side of the DMZ. Why? Refugees, social turmoil, all the dysfunctions that still afflict The Federal Republic of Germany today multiplied by 100. A really strong Korean identity muddles the whole issue.
3. The Koreans People's Army Comes First. The current system benefits (relatively) the military as part of Kim Jeong Il's Military Policy. The military is a abnormally large portion of the population; the military gets taken care of first; these are the guys with the guns... the only guys with the guns.
I am not rooting for North Korea, but I am bored with piece like this that seem to come out from time to time to predict the perpetual immediate collapse of the DPRK.
People have been saying that the DPRK will fall probably since the day after WWII. People have short memories. What is rarely mentioned is just how much the DPRK has survived. The collapse of the USSR and the famine that followed in the 90's still left the regime intact and the North Korean military still the 4th largest in the world. (or as Travis put it the other day "the North Korean Military is like having the worlds best security system on the worlds shittiest car...")
North Koreans have endured two meals a day. Citizens have almost no free time as they are required to attend party functions and perform "volunteer" work on their days off. I once hear in an interview with a former teacher that her day wouldn't end until 9pm. The bottom line is that North Korean people are tough as nails, and propaganda of the machine so effective, and meaningful resistance so deadly that any predictions for the immediate collapse of the regime are both suspect and tired.
Here is what wishful thinkers often leave out:
1. China Will Never Let the DPRK Collapse. While analyst are rather fond of bringing up the same tired tales of economic woe, the completely ignored the large increases in DPRK-Chinese trade. China is interested in using North Korea as leverage against the US. There may also be value minerals like rare earth metals that China wants to corner. Ironically the DPRK has labor that is so cheap (indentured servitude to the state) that it maybe appeal to China.
2. South Korea Doesnt Want Reunification. Contrary to my own preconceived notions when I got here, Koreans don't what German style reunification. I would have argued that reunification would be cheaper than maintaining the most militarized border in the world, but mandatory service and US subsidy of the ROK military makes it arguably more cost effective to halfheartedly work to prop up the regime on the other side of the DMZ. Why? Refugees, social turmoil, all the dysfunctions that still afflict The Federal Republic of Germany today multiplied by 100. A really strong Korean identity muddles the whole issue.
3. The Koreans People's Army Comes First. The current system benefits (relatively) the military as part of Kim Jeong Il's Military Policy. The military is a abnormally large portion of the population; the military gets taken care of first; these are the guys with the guns... the only guys with the guns.
I am not rooting for North Korea, but I am bored with piece like this that seem to come out from time to time to predict the perpetual immediate collapse of the DPRK.