Oscar Predictions
Best Lead Actor:
* Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart"
* George Clooney in "Up in the Air"
* Colin Firth in "A Single Man"
* Morgan Freeman in "Invictus"
* Jeremy Renner in "The Hurt Locker"
Though I haven't seen "A Single Man," Firth has been getting an exceptional amount of acclaim for his performance, and I feel it in my gut he will be taking the statue home. I'd like to see Clooney win for his exceptional work "Up in the Air," though.
Best Supporting Actor
* Matt Damon in "Invictus"
* Woody Harrelson in "The Messenger"
* Christopher Plummer in "The Last Station"
* Stanley Tucci in "The Lovely Bones"
* Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds"
No contest here, Waltz is going to win, and deservedly so. Period.
Best Lead Actress:
* Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side"
* Helen Mirren in "The Last Station"
* Carey Mulligan in "An Education"
* Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
* Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia"
Ay, haven't seen any of these films, so I definitely can't base my prediction on performances, but Meryl Streep has been getting a lot of buzz, so I'm gonna go ahead and pick her.
Best Supporting Actress:
* Penélope Cruz in "Nine"
* Vera Farmiga in "Up in the Air"
* Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart"
* Anna Kendrick in "Up in the Air"
* Mo'Nique in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Same as above, but Mo'Nique has been collecting pretty much all of the major supporting awards this year, so we can be pretty certain she will be taking home an Oscar as well.
Best Animated Film:
"Coraline" (Focus Features)
"Fantastic Mr. Fox" (20th Century Fox)
"The Princess and the Frog" (Walt Disney)
"The Secret of Kells"
"Up" (Walt Disney)
I absolutely loved "Up", and we all know it's going to win, BUT - I think "Coraline" is a superior film. This is purely personal, because I will take claymation over computer animation any day, and though "Up" has a wonderful story, I consider Coraline to be better structured and more original.
Best Cinematography:
"Avatar" (20th Century Fox) Mauro Fiore
"Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" (Warner Bros.) Bruno Delbonnel
"The Hurt Locker" (Summit Entertainment) Barry Ackroyd
"Inglourious Basterds" (The Weinstein Company) Robert Richardson
"The White Ribbon" (Sony Pictures Classics) Christian Berger
Avatar is the most incredible technical achievement of modern cinema. Some dumbass girl at the UCF Film Club proposed a challenge to Avatar's nomination: "Um, like, it's computer animation, how does it get nominated for cinematography?"
Dear Dumbass,
Cinematography = composition, framing and lighting. The computer does not determine these factors for you. When using computer animation, you must determine all of these values (plus texture, shadows, and shitload of other things) by yourself, make them up out of nothing. Cameron's team created a living, breathing world, and shot a compelling film in that world, OUT OF NOTHING. So shut the fuck up, and accept it. Whatever we think of Avatar's storyline of overall impact, technically it is superb, it deserves this award, and it will win it.
Best Director:
"Avatar" (20th Century Fox) James Cameron
"The Hurt Locker" (Summit Entertainment) Kathryn Bigelow
"Inglourious Basterds" (The Weinstein Company) Quentin Tarantino
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" (Lionsgate) Lee Daniels
"Up in the Air" (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Jason Reitman
Bigelow will win, and rightfully so - though I wouldn't mind seeing Tarantino and Reitman sharing the award with her.
Best Editing:
"Avatar" (20th Century Fox) Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
"District 9" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Julian Clarke
"The Hurt Locker" (Summit Entertainment) Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
"Inglourious Basterds" (The Weinstein Company) Sally Menke
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" (Lionsgate) Joe Klotz
This is really tough. I'm gonna take a shot and say "Avatar" will win this, though I feel that "Inglorious Basterds" was the best edited film.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
"District 9" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
"An Education" (Sony Pictures Classics) Screenplay by Nick Hornby
"In the Loop" (IFC Films) Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" (Lionsgate) Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
"Up in the Air" (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Though I'm a big fan of District 9 (wonderful, heartfelt story that incorporates deep social commentary without being too preachy), "Up in the Air" is written with such urgency and honesty that I don't see any of the other films surpassing it. We'll see.
Best Original Screenplay:
"The Hurt Locker" (Summit Entertainment) Written by Mark Boal
"Inglourious Basterds" (The Weinstein Company) Written by Quentin Tarantino
"The Messenger" (Oscilloscope Laboratories) Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
"A Serious Man" (Focus Features) Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Up" (Walt Disney) Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter
Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy
Love him or hate him, Tarantino is one of the most brilliant writers currently working in Hollywood. His dramatic pacing and dialogues surpass my wildest expectations in every new film he makes. I suspect "The Hurt Locker" will win (and I do not approve, because I didn't feel the story was terribly strong), but I'm gonna predict Basterds and hope my wishes will come true. If "A Serious Man" won, though, I wouldn't be terribly upset either.
And finally, Best Motion Picture:
"Avatar"
"The Blind Side"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"
The Hurt Locker will win, though there are at least three better films on the list: "Up in the Air," "A Serious Man" and "Inglorious Basterds." I've yet to see Precious - I will be doing that in the next few days. Anyway, the Locker is a good film, well paced, with some solid themes and performances - but really, I consider it way overhyped. It didn't really impact me much emotionally. Ah well.
Okay, I'm done being a nerd. Looking forward to seeing how my predictions work out!
* Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart"
* George Clooney in "Up in the Air"
* Colin Firth in "A Single Man"
* Morgan Freeman in "Invictus"
* Jeremy Renner in "The Hurt Locker"
Though I haven't seen "A Single Man," Firth has been getting an exceptional amount of acclaim for his performance, and I feel it in my gut he will be taking the statue home. I'd like to see Clooney win for his exceptional work "Up in the Air," though.
Best Supporting Actor
* Matt Damon in "Invictus"
* Woody Harrelson in "The Messenger"
* Christopher Plummer in "The Last Station"
* Stanley Tucci in "The Lovely Bones"
* Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds"
No contest here, Waltz is going to win, and deservedly so. Period.
Best Lead Actress:
* Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side"
* Helen Mirren in "The Last Station"
* Carey Mulligan in "An Education"
* Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
* Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia"
Ay, haven't seen any of these films, so I definitely can't base my prediction on performances, but Meryl Streep has been getting a lot of buzz, so I'm gonna go ahead and pick her.
Best Supporting Actress:
* Penélope Cruz in "Nine"
* Vera Farmiga in "Up in the Air"
* Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart"
* Anna Kendrick in "Up in the Air"
* Mo'Nique in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Same as above, but Mo'Nique has been collecting pretty much all of the major supporting awards this year, so we can be pretty certain she will be taking home an Oscar as well.
Best Animated Film:
"Coraline" (Focus Features)
"Fantastic Mr. Fox" (20th Century Fox)
"The Princess and the Frog" (Walt Disney)
"The Secret of Kells"
"Up" (Walt Disney)
I absolutely loved "Up", and we all know it's going to win, BUT - I think "Coraline" is a superior film. This is purely personal, because I will take claymation over computer animation any day, and though "Up" has a wonderful story, I consider Coraline to be better structured and more original.
Best Cinematography:
"Avatar" (20th Century Fox) Mauro Fiore
"Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" (Warner Bros.) Bruno Delbonnel
"The Hurt Locker" (Summit Entertainment) Barry Ackroyd
"Inglourious Basterds" (The Weinstein Company) Robert Richardson
"The White Ribbon" (Sony Pictures Classics) Christian Berger
Avatar is the most incredible technical achievement of modern cinema. Some dumbass girl at the UCF Film Club proposed a challenge to Avatar's nomination: "Um, like, it's computer animation, how does it get nominated for cinematography?"
Dear Dumbass,
Cinematography = composition, framing and lighting. The computer does not determine these factors for you. When using computer animation, you must determine all of these values (plus texture, shadows, and shitload of other things) by yourself, make them up out of nothing. Cameron's team created a living, breathing world, and shot a compelling film in that world, OUT OF NOTHING. So shut the fuck up, and accept it. Whatever we think of Avatar's storyline of overall impact, technically it is superb, it deserves this award, and it will win it.
Best Director:
"Avatar" (20th Century Fox) James Cameron
"The Hurt Locker" (Summit Entertainment) Kathryn Bigelow
"Inglourious Basterds" (The Weinstein Company) Quentin Tarantino
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" (Lionsgate) Lee Daniels
"Up in the Air" (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Jason Reitman
Bigelow will win, and rightfully so - though I wouldn't mind seeing Tarantino and Reitman sharing the award with her.
Best Editing:
"Avatar" (20th Century Fox) Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
"District 9" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Julian Clarke
"The Hurt Locker" (Summit Entertainment) Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
"Inglourious Basterds" (The Weinstein Company) Sally Menke
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" (Lionsgate) Joe Klotz
This is really tough. I'm gonna take a shot and say "Avatar" will win this, though I feel that "Inglorious Basterds" was the best edited film.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
"District 9" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
"An Education" (Sony Pictures Classics) Screenplay by Nick Hornby
"In the Loop" (IFC Films) Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" (Lionsgate) Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
"Up in the Air" (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Though I'm a big fan of District 9 (wonderful, heartfelt story that incorporates deep social commentary without being too preachy), "Up in the Air" is written with such urgency and honesty that I don't see any of the other films surpassing it. We'll see.
Best Original Screenplay:
"The Hurt Locker" (Summit Entertainment) Written by Mark Boal
"Inglourious Basterds" (The Weinstein Company) Written by Quentin Tarantino
"The Messenger" (Oscilloscope Laboratories) Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
"A Serious Man" (Focus Features) Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Up" (Walt Disney) Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter
Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy
Love him or hate him, Tarantino is one of the most brilliant writers currently working in Hollywood. His dramatic pacing and dialogues surpass my wildest expectations in every new film he makes. I suspect "The Hurt Locker" will win (and I do not approve, because I didn't feel the story was terribly strong), but I'm gonna predict Basterds and hope my wishes will come true. If "A Serious Man" won, though, I wouldn't be terribly upset either.
And finally, Best Motion Picture:
"Avatar"
"The Blind Side"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"
The Hurt Locker will win, though there are at least three better films on the list: "Up in the Air," "A Serious Man" and "Inglorious Basterds." I've yet to see Precious - I will be doing that in the next few days. Anyway, the Locker is a good film, well paced, with some solid themes and performances - but really, I consider it way overhyped. It didn't really impact me much emotionally. Ah well.
Okay, I'm done being a nerd. Looking forward to seeing how my predictions work out!