NYC heads-up from SPC :)
From the Storm Prediction Center ... the last couple of days of May are traditionally when we see nasty storms hitting NE and eastern NY and such. Tomorrow afternoon, all of the factors are lined up to "GO!!!" if things click just right.
NEW YORK CITY AREA DURING
THE 31/18-21Z TIME FRAME...WHERE/WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING /BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT
500 MB/ JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE REGION... WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...NEAR A LINGERING 30 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY
850 MB JET CORE...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
Tomorrow here in Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi could get quite "interesting". For us it'll depend in large part upon the cloud cover and where we end up relative to storms firing off elsewhere. Cloud cover because it prevents the sun from heating up things, so any storms that do pop up don't find a fertile environment full of instability and free energy) ... and other storms because they can end up choking storms elsewhere, or outflow fueling storms elsewhere ...
Back to the meeting prep. Third meeting today. Good thing I don't have any actual work to get done. (ha ha)
NEW YORK CITY AREA DURING
THE 31/18-21Z TIME FRAME...WHERE/WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING /BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT
500 MB/ JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE REGION... WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...NEAR A LINGERING 30 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY
850 MB JET CORE...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
Tomorrow here in Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi could get quite "interesting". For us it'll depend in large part upon the cloud cover and where we end up relative to storms firing off elsewhere. Cloud cover because it prevents the sun from heating up things, so any storms that do pop up don't find a fertile environment full of instability and free energy) ... and other storms because they can end up choking storms elsewhere, or outflow fueling storms elsewhere ...
Back to the meeting prep. Third meeting today. Good thing I don't have any actual work to get done. (ha ha)