now that I've seen 3 of the 5...
"Million Dollar Baby" is my pick for Best Picture.
Granted, still haven't seen "Sideways" or "Finding Neverland," but having seen "MDB" last night, I can say that it clearly stands above "Ray" and "The Aviator."
What made it better? Well, it's a great story, first and foremost. I think the biopics suffer under the constraints of their real-life subjects. Howard Hughes may be a person of historical interest, but did we ever really care passionately about his story? I think we care more about Ray Charles' story, but still, I think the biopics are hurt by the fact that they have to do so much paraphrasing of their subjects' lives. (Though I haven't seen it, the same might also be true of J.M. Barrie and "Finding Neverland.")
In "Million Dollar Baby," the film covers just a year and a half of these people's lives. You get insight into their pasts, to be sure, but the film is very much focused on how these people's lives are changed in the short time they've had together. And, importantly, while Hilary Swank may be the "million dollar baby," and the action of the film draws your attention to her, it's deceptive in that the primary focus of the film is really Clint Eastwood's character. Throw in the fact that the film unfolds through the eyes (well, eye) and narration of Morgan Freeman's character, and you've got a story that's extraordinarily well balanced. You don't necessarily get that in the biopics, which are, by necessity, fixated on their biographical subjects.
As for the ending that nobody seems to want to disclose to people who haven't seen the movie... you may or may not agree with the decision that's made, but it's presented in a way that at least you can respect the character's motivation for doing it.
So we'll see what happens tonight, but it will not surprise me at all to see "MDB" win for Best Picture. And I think Jamie Foxx and Hilary Swank are as close as you can get to locks for Best Actor and Best Actress.
That being said, of course I won't be watching the Oscars, because I still think awards shows are boring.
And now, it's time to get to work...