Probably the last election post I'll make until after AVcon
(I need a politics icon. Maybe of Antony Green, or a First Dog On The Moon cartoon. If First Dog drew a cartoon of Antony Green I'd be set.)
Since I don't know how much time I'll have to either read the news or use the internet while I'm in Adelaide, I figured it was time for a political roundup post thing. (yes I am totally procrastinating on my bandgirlsbang draft, shut up, I have until Saturday. In Hawaii!) I haven't read nearly enough news and I've missed almost every interview worth watching, so this will be mostly based on online news reports and commentary, sorry to say. Feel free to correct me if I've missed anything. Except I won't see it because I'll be in Adelaide.
The campaign in general: The first few days of campaigning haven't shown anything of drastic interest, but it's chugging along. We have our TV ads, some fairly uninteresting speeches, some polls, some photo opportunities and the first weird stunt in the form of a Speedo-clad ALP campaign officer assaulting Abbott in Melbourne. And everyone's cranking out the similes:
Swan: Tony Abbott trying to walk away from workchoices would be like richie benaud saying he doesn't like cricket any more
Hockey: Wayne Swan is to surpluses what Paris Hilton is to celibacy.
Not seeing much in the way of interesting policy announcements yet, but that will come. Budget policies came out on the second and third days of the campaign in 2007, but that was unusually early. I haven't seen anyone start the Pork Barrel Tally yet, but it will probably be less entertaining as I doubt either party is going to follow the Howard government tactic of just throwing fistfuls of money around every time they find themselves in a marginal seat.
The issues: So far the main issues of concern are asylum seekers, industrial relations and environment policy, specifically the carbon tax. Economic management, health and education will probably pop up. 'Sustainable population' has been a byline for the ALP but I haven't seen any comment on how they plan to achieve it yet. The internet filter and gay marriage should be issues but probably won't be. So far most people seem concerned with preference deals, slogans and whether the election debate will clash with Masterchef, which I think suggests some issues with priorities. So let's get the silly bits out of the way first.
TV ads: Just want to comment quickly that I find it interesting that the first TV ads for both campaigns involve the party leader speaking directly to an audience. It's not something I've noticed a lot of in the past, other than the 2007 ads with Rudd switching off a TV that was playing a Coalition ad.
For the first time in ages I doubt we'll be seeing any 'L-plate' ads, since neither leader has even led a campaign before. (The last time this happened was Keating vs Hewson in 1993. Yes, I do mention this partly to link the debate scene from Keating: The Musical.)
'Moving forward': As someone who likes a good election circus, I don't mind catchphrases. Keeping a 'working families' tally was fun last election and 'moving forward' is just as entertaining. I don't think it's a bad catchphrase, even if it's a bit vague, but the problem with it is that the phrase itself becomes the story. It's a distraction. We shouldn't really have news stories about nothing but Gillard's word choices, and counting them up should be left to Gruen Nation and the Chaser team, not serious news reports.
The debate: The debate no longer clashes with the Masterchef final - an incredibly stupid mistake to make in the first place by both campaigns. I might think election debates are more important than any entertainment show but unlike Gillard I know I'm an exception. I know politicians don't have much free time to watch TV, but any halfway decent campaign manager should be aware that you don't schedule major TV debates against popular entertainment shows, and they should have been aware that last year's Masterchef finale was the most watched non-sporting TV event in Australian history. This is basic. But at least it's resolved, leaving me only with the problem of the debate clashing with the AVcon afterparty.
More irritating to me is the news that there will only be one debate, down from Rudd's proposed three. Howard only ever agreed to one debate per campaign, because he was bad at them. I think it shows a lack of confidence by the ALP (though perhaps by the Coalition as well, I haven't heard any complaint from Abbott) and I don't buy Gillard's excuse that she and Abbott have had plenty of debates in Parliament already. Again, I have seen those because I like to watch Question Time, but how many other people do? I think debates are an excellent campaign tool, but bad luck. We'll just have to go without.
The Greens-ALP preference deal: Predictable. Labor are afraid of the Greens, but after having so much first-term policy scuppered by the Liberals, they're desperate to get power in the Senate this election, and the deal will help that. They can also see that the disillusionment with the major parties, particularly from the Left due to Labor's continuing drift to the Right, will result in a higher Greens protest vote than ever. Greens' preferences are the most important in this entire election. As to whether the deal is a good thing or not, I don't know. I don't know whether it will affect Greens policy much, but I doubt it. There's already grassroots-level revolt within the party, so catering too much to Labor interests will be dangerous for the group. There's also the simple political thirst for power - the Greens are fast approaching a stage where they can win lower house seats from Labor, and I highly doubt they'll do anything that will get in the way of that.
Industrial relations: Clearly an issue, but Abbott's sending mixed messages so it's hard to comment yet.
Sustainable population: I like the idea as a policy direction, but it needs some actual policy before it can go anywhere. It's unclear as yet whether there's any popular interest in population as a problem, but I don't see that as an issue the way some others there. I don't think political agendas should always be led by public opinion - sometimes the politicians have to get the ball rolling.
Asylum seekers: Even without the Timor Solution cock-up, there was no way Gillard was going to be able to put this to bed easily the way she wanted to. I freely admit that at this point I have no idea how this issue is going to work itself out, and we may get to the end of the campaign to find that the whole debate is just a mess on both sides. What's interesting is the way the discussion is being framed. Both parties, to some extent, are taking the 'I am the leader so I must follow the people' approach, acting as though policy is lead by popular opinion, but the ALP as a whole has tried to redefine the terms of the asylum seeker debate over the last three years, trying to turn the focus away from asylum seekers and towards people smuggling as a problem.
And I would explain more, but I had a phonecall that completely derailed my train of thought so I'm going to leave it there. Hopefully I'll have the time and energy to go into more depth on the major stuff next week.
So that's done. Off to Adelaide, see you in a week!
Since I don't know how much time I'll have to either read the news or use the internet while I'm in Adelaide, I figured it was time for a political roundup post thing. (yes I am totally procrastinating on my bandgirlsbang draft, shut up, I have until Saturday. In Hawaii!) I haven't read nearly enough news and I've missed almost every interview worth watching, so this will be mostly based on online news reports and commentary, sorry to say. Feel free to correct me if I've missed anything. Except I won't see it because I'll be in Adelaide.
The campaign in general: The first few days of campaigning haven't shown anything of drastic interest, but it's chugging along. We have our TV ads, some fairly uninteresting speeches, some polls, some photo opportunities and the first weird stunt in the form of a Speedo-clad ALP campaign officer assaulting Abbott in Melbourne. And everyone's cranking out the similes:
Swan: Tony Abbott trying to walk away from workchoices would be like richie benaud saying he doesn't like cricket any more
Hockey: Wayne Swan is to surpluses what Paris Hilton is to celibacy.
Not seeing much in the way of interesting policy announcements yet, but that will come. Budget policies came out on the second and third days of the campaign in 2007, but that was unusually early. I haven't seen anyone start the Pork Barrel Tally yet, but it will probably be less entertaining as I doubt either party is going to follow the Howard government tactic of just throwing fistfuls of money around every time they find themselves in a marginal seat.
The issues: So far the main issues of concern are asylum seekers, industrial relations and environment policy, specifically the carbon tax. Economic management, health and education will probably pop up. 'Sustainable population' has been a byline for the ALP but I haven't seen any comment on how they plan to achieve it yet. The internet filter and gay marriage should be issues but probably won't be. So far most people seem concerned with preference deals, slogans and whether the election debate will clash with Masterchef, which I think suggests some issues with priorities. So let's get the silly bits out of the way first.
TV ads: Just want to comment quickly that I find it interesting that the first TV ads for both campaigns involve the party leader speaking directly to an audience. It's not something I've noticed a lot of in the past, other than the 2007 ads with Rudd switching off a TV that was playing a Coalition ad.
For the first time in ages I doubt we'll be seeing any 'L-plate' ads, since neither leader has even led a campaign before. (The last time this happened was Keating vs Hewson in 1993. Yes, I do mention this partly to link the debate scene from Keating: The Musical.)
'Moving forward': As someone who likes a good election circus, I don't mind catchphrases. Keeping a 'working families' tally was fun last election and 'moving forward' is just as entertaining. I don't think it's a bad catchphrase, even if it's a bit vague, but the problem with it is that the phrase itself becomes the story. It's a distraction. We shouldn't really have news stories about nothing but Gillard's word choices, and counting them up should be left to Gruen Nation and the Chaser team, not serious news reports.
The debate: The debate no longer clashes with the Masterchef final - an incredibly stupid mistake to make in the first place by both campaigns. I might think election debates are more important than any entertainment show but unlike Gillard I know I'm an exception. I know politicians don't have much free time to watch TV, but any halfway decent campaign manager should be aware that you don't schedule major TV debates against popular entertainment shows, and they should have been aware that last year's Masterchef finale was the most watched non-sporting TV event in Australian history. This is basic. But at least it's resolved, leaving me only with the problem of the debate clashing with the AVcon afterparty.
More irritating to me is the news that there will only be one debate, down from Rudd's proposed three. Howard only ever agreed to one debate per campaign, because he was bad at them. I think it shows a lack of confidence by the ALP (though perhaps by the Coalition as well, I haven't heard any complaint from Abbott) and I don't buy Gillard's excuse that she and Abbott have had plenty of debates in Parliament already. Again, I have seen those because I like to watch Question Time, but how many other people do? I think debates are an excellent campaign tool, but bad luck. We'll just have to go without.
The Greens-ALP preference deal: Predictable. Labor are afraid of the Greens, but after having so much first-term policy scuppered by the Liberals, they're desperate to get power in the Senate this election, and the deal will help that. They can also see that the disillusionment with the major parties, particularly from the Left due to Labor's continuing drift to the Right, will result in a higher Greens protest vote than ever. Greens' preferences are the most important in this entire election. As to whether the deal is a good thing or not, I don't know. I don't know whether it will affect Greens policy much, but I doubt it. There's already grassroots-level revolt within the party, so catering too much to Labor interests will be dangerous for the group. There's also the simple political thirst for power - the Greens are fast approaching a stage where they can win lower house seats from Labor, and I highly doubt they'll do anything that will get in the way of that.
Industrial relations: Clearly an issue, but Abbott's sending mixed messages so it's hard to comment yet.
Sustainable population: I like the idea as a policy direction, but it needs some actual policy before it can go anywhere. It's unclear as yet whether there's any popular interest in population as a problem, but I don't see that as an issue the way some others there. I don't think political agendas should always be led by public opinion - sometimes the politicians have to get the ball rolling.
Asylum seekers: Even without the Timor Solution cock-up, there was no way Gillard was going to be able to put this to bed easily the way she wanted to. I freely admit that at this point I have no idea how this issue is going to work itself out, and we may get to the end of the campaign to find that the whole debate is just a mess on both sides. What's interesting is the way the discussion is being framed. Both parties, to some extent, are taking the 'I am the leader so I must follow the people' approach, acting as though policy is lead by popular opinion, but the ALP as a whole has tried to redefine the terms of the asylum seeker debate over the last three years, trying to turn the focus away from asylum seekers and towards people smuggling as a problem.
And I would explain more, but I had a phonecall that completely derailed my train of thought so I'm going to leave it there. Hopefully I'll have the time and energy to go into more depth on the major stuff next week.
So that's done. Off to Adelaide, see you in a week!